Year of Volatility: Trump's Tariffs & The Iran War[Spurting] [Facepalm]
A new year but not a fantastic start. After the Supreme Court clipped the President's wings in February by ruling his emergency tariffs illegal, the Trump administration did not back down. [Smug]
Sharp Market Dives 🌊
Early 2026 has already delivered some of the market’s most volatile trading days since late 2025. Each new tariff headline revives concerns that a broader global trade conflict could emerge.
Inflation 2.0: Treasury experts are already warning that the tariffs could add roughly 0.5 percentage points to global inflation
rate, leading to a climb toward 3.5% CPI by year-end.
The New Tariff Landscape🧗
The 10% Surcharge: On February 24 2026, a new temporary 10% global import tariff was implemented.
150 Day Time Bomb: This tariff is scheduled to remain in place until July 24, 2026. With that fixed timeline, markets are now bracing greater impact.
Add-on Dish : Navigating the Tariff Squeeze and the Iran War 🌎🚨
With risks to oil supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, the market is facing both economic and geopolitical stress. As a result, many investors are shifting their focus away from aggressive growth and toward capital preservation and flexibility.
What would I do?🛟
For those who know Buffett well, the situation is in his favor now.
1) Buffett Rule: Never Lose Money!
- Build the War Chest: Cash and Liquidity
Target a 15% to 20% cash position to serve as "ammo" if the market sinks.
[I believe Berkshire Hathaway is holding much more {$370 billion}]
- Maintain liquidity to avoid being forced to sell assets at a loss during sharp pullbacks.
2) Buffett Rule: Pivot to Wide Moat Defensives
- Focus on companies with pricing power that can pass the 10% to 15% tariff costs to consumers.
- Consider Dividend consumer staples stocks like $Coca-Cola(KO)$ (US), $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ (US), $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ (SG), $Sheng Siong(OV8.SI)$ (SG) for stability.
3) Hedge with Safe Havens [Personal add on]
- Gold remains the premier hedge against current inflation and geopolitical escalation.
However, do note it's a hedge and not a growth stock.
- Alternative, buying $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV)$ or Tbills to provide a buffer as bond yields tend to rise due to energy shocks.
4) Margin of Safety
Global Defense spending are projected to reach record highs.
Diversified global stocks and industries rather than focusing on one to minimise the risk impact.
But do not be over-diversified and buying stocks from all different industries and seeing whichever is "cheap".
⏳Concluding Thoughts⌛
Fears and panic arises as we manoeuvre around the huge volatilty market, facing the the tariff squeeze and the escalating oil prices. Yet history repeatedly reminds us that market turbulence is not an anomaly — it is part of the investment journey.
Stay patient, diversified and prepared.☔
Volatility is the price investors pay for long-term returns.🌟
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