This downturn should not be easily reduced to market panic, which is actually redefining the company from a simple tech e-commerce to a complex of e-commerce plus finance plus a game.
Credit risk is always deceptive, and the large and rapidly growing denominator will instantly dilute the current bad debt rate, creating a false prosperity of good asset quality. High-growth credit books often reveal their true vulnerability only when the macro economy weakens or when risk-control models encounter stress tests. Once bad debts emerge, profit fluctuations will be multiplied.
For the coming few quarters , we should observation will inevitably focus on whether Shopee's subsidized marketing strength has risen again, and whether Monee's bad rates and credit costs can really remain manageable.
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