To The Moon

On February 26, the National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center of China, the National Engineering Laboratory for Computer Virus Prevention and Control Technology, 360 Digital Security Group, and Antiy Technology Group jointly released the in-depth analysis report titled "Top Player - In-depth Analysis of the Global Virtual Currency Asset Harvesting Operation under US Technological Hegemony". This is a special report that approaches from the perspectives of cybersecurity, technology governance, and Risk Analysis.The report analyzes the US's technical capabilities, rule influence, and cross-border law enforcement in the global virtual currency asset field, and uses the Chen Zhi case, Zhao Zhangpeng case, and Garantex case as the main cases to illustrate how the US has formed stronger influence and disposal capabilities in the global virtual currency asset field by leveraging technology, rules, and law enforcement systems. The report summary also clearly states that its overall analytical framework is a trinity system of "technological advantage - regulatory binding - institutional execution".

The report states that virtual currency-related assets are increasingly deeply integrated into the comprehensive framework of technological governance, financial regulation, cross-border law enforcement, and asset management. For the international market, this means that what these assets and platforms will face in the future is not just single market fluctuations, but more explicit hierarchical pricing. For investors focusing on the international market, this stratification not only affects short-term sentiment but also influences medium- to long-term risk premiums, valuation centers, and capital preferences.

The first part of the report is titled " From 'Money Laundering Tool' to 'Digital Gold' ".

The report states:

1. By the end of January 2026, the total market capitalization of global virtual currency assets was approximately $2.73 trillion, of which the total market capitalization of Bitcoin was approximately $1.57 trillion.

2. The value of central bank gold reserves in various countries is approximately $5.83 trillion , and the total market capitalization of virtual currency assets has reached approximately 47% of the total market capitalization of global official gold reserves, approaching half.

3. A few countries have already recognized Bitcoin as legal tender.

4. On March 6, 2025, the US government issued an Executive Order announcing the establishment of a strategic reserve for Bitcoin.

The report states that the position of virtual currency-related assets in the international market is no longer just a marginal trading topic, but is increasingly coming into the purview of macro assets, policy observation, and cross-border governance. For the market, the most noteworthy aspect of this is the change in the pricing logic of mainstream virtual assets. As mainstream assets such as Bitcoin are increasingly incorporated into the frameworks of macro assets, reserve assets, and policy observation, their price logic will also gradually change. In the future, the factors influencing the prices of such assets may no longer be simply emotions and themes, but will increasingly be affected by policy expectations, institutional allocation, the global liquidity environment, and cross-market risk preferences.

This also means that the trends of mainstream virtual assets may increasingly exhibit characteristics of "asset class standardization". When global liquidity is loose and risk appetite rises, such assets are more likely to attract incremental attention; when policy expectations tighten and cross-market risk aversion increases, such assets are also more likely to experience more systematic valuation compression. For investors, the importance of this change lies in the fact that in the future, when judging such assets, one cannot simply look at on-chain activity, theme rotation, or short-term news, but also simultaneously observe the policy framework, the flow of major institutional funds, and changes in its position within the global risk asset system. The pricing logic between mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and high-elasticity, small-cap thematic coins may continue to widen in the future: the former is increasingly influenced by macro variables, while the latter still relies more on themes, traffic, and short-term risk appetite.

The second part of the report presents the analytical framework of "technological advantage - rule binding - institutional implementation" .

The report states:

1. The US controls the core R&D rights, key node control, and on-chain Data Analysis technology advantages of global mainstream blockchain protocols .

2. Leading blockchain companies such as Chainalysis and Elliptic are all dominated by the US, and it is said that they account for over 90% of the global on-chain traceability market share.

3. The US restricts the outflow of high-end technologies through the "small yard, high wall" strategy, incorporates the core technologies of encrypted assets into the military-civilian integration system, and prohibits the export of blockchain security technologies and tools to specific countries.

4. The US "GENIUS Act" requires stablecoin issuers to purchase more than 80% of their reserve assets in US Treasury bonds.

The report emphasizes that in the field of virtual currency assets, what truly matters is not just the on-chain technology itself, but also the regulatory framework, law enforcement capabilities, and the ability to control key infrastructure. In this section, the report places technology, institutions, and implementation within the same analytical framework, with the core message being that the US is not merely focusing on a single aspect, but rather attempting to exert a more comprehensive influence across the three dimensions of technology, institutions, and implementation.

When understood in the context of the market, this actually corresponds to the internal re-stratification within the industry. In the past, the market was more accustomed to pricing assets and platforms based on narrative strength, ecosystem popularity, and short-term capital flows; however, in the current environment, compliance capabilities, custody capabilities, clearing capabilities, payment capabilities, and the ability to connect with the mainstream financial system are becoming increasingly important. Especially in areas such as stablecoins, custody, payments, transaction matching, and on-chain tracking, it has become increasingly difficult for the market to understand using only thematic logic, and instead requires more consideration within the framework of financial infrastructure. For investors, this means that in the future, it is often not all related assets that will benefit together, but rather those assets and platforms with stronger rule adaptability, clearer paths, and the ability to absorb mainstream liquidity that will more easily receive valuation support.

The report, in the "Regulatory Binding" section, also specifically mentions that the US has further connected the cryptocurrency ecosystem with the US dollar system through policies and regulations, and views this process as an important variable influencing the future international digital financial landscape. For the market, the key change corresponding to this part is that the core contradiction in the industry is gradually shifting from "whether there is demand" to "who can meet the demand, who can stably retain liquidity, and who can connect with mainstream funds over a longer period." As stablecoins, payment, and custody and other aspects are increasingly placed within a clearer regulatory framework, the valuation logic of related infrastructure will also continue to change. Platforms and infrastructure that can attract institutional funds, maintain business continuity, and have stronger regulatory adaptability in the future are more likely to receive valuation support; while models that mainly rely on regulatory gaps and cross-border gray areas may continue to see an increase in risk discount in their valuations.

The third part of the report focuses on "black eating black" and "long arm jurisdiction" , and is developed through the Chen Zhi case, the Zhao Zhangpeng case, and the Garantex case.

The report states that:

1. From 2022 to 2025, the US confiscated virtual currency assets worldwide through various cases, with a cumulative value exceeding $30 billion.

2. The confiscation amount in the Chen Zhi case alone reached 15 billion US dollars.

3. From 2023 to 2025, the US initiated "civil + criminal" dual liability pursuits against Bian and Zhao Zhangpeng. The case ended with Zhao Zhangpeng being granted amnesty after signing a plea agreement.

4. In 2025 , the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added Garantex and its affiliated entities to the SDN list .

5. From 2023 to 2025, hacker groups with US government support backgrounds launched targeted attacks against more than 20 major virtual currency asset exchanges worldwide.

The report uses these cases to illustrate that the uncertainties faced by offshore platforms, gray arbitrage spaces, and business models that rely on regulatory gray areas for survival are increasing in the future. When the report groups these types of cases together, the commonalities presented are clear: once technical forensics, rule application, and cross-border enforcement form a linkage, "where the platform is located" is no longer the decisive factor; what truly determines the level of risk is the degree of its connection with major clearing networks, mainstream stablecoins, key user markets, and cross-border cooperation systems.

For the market, this will directly change the way of risk assessment for platform-based assets and exchange-based businesses. In the past, the model that relied on cross-border regulatory gaps to achieve high elasticity was often more likely to attract attention during the boom phase, as it had high elasticity, compelling narratives, and rapid growth. However, with the strengthening of cross-border law enforcement cooperation and the spillover effect of regulations, the policy risks, compliance risks, and judicial risks that such models will face in the future will also more directly factor into market pricing. While the growth potential of a platform is certainly important, if its business model highly depends on regulatory gray areas, then its high elasticity itself may also correspond to higher uncertainty and greater valuation discounts.

Conversely, platforms and infrastructure with clearer business boundaries, more solid risk control foundations, and more explicit custody and clearing paths, although not necessarily the "hottest" at certain stages, are more likely to receive sustainable valuation support in the medium to long term. This is because in the current environment, the market not only looks at trading volume, activity, and short-term profits but also increasingly at whether a platform can stably absorb liquidity, avoid major compliance shocks, and maintain business continuity over a longer period.For investors, this means that when evaluating platform-type targets, they cannot solely focus on short-term growth and user scale, but also need to incorporate the regulatory environment, risk control level, and boundary clarity into their core judgment.

Overall, the report highlights a change that is taking place: virtual currency-related assets and platforms are being re-stratified more rapidly. Some mainstream assets are delving deeper into the scope of observation for macro assets and institutional allocation; some infrastructure closely related to payment, clearing, custody, and compliance is gaining stronger practical significance; while assets and platforms on the gray edge with weaker rule adaptability may continue to face higher risk discounts.In the future, the differentiation of virtual currency-related markets may not only occur between technical routes but also more likely between the ability to adapt to rules, the capacity to comply with regulations, and the ability to gain the attention of mainstream funds. As rules, funds, and infrastructure gradually reshape the industry, what determines the medium- to long-term performance of assets is often no longer just short-term popularity but rather the degree of compliance, business stability, and the ability to absorb long-term liquidity.