To The Moon

Today, the United States and Israel launched military strikes on targets inside Iran, sharply escalating tensions in the Middle East. Geopolitical risk premiums are set to return rapidly to the forefront of market pricing. Next week, capital inflows into the precious metals sector, led by gold and silver, appear almost certain.

In the gold ETF space, the largest physically backed gold ETF, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ , is up 22.06% year to date, while $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ has gained 22.05%. Among gold mining ETFs, $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ is up 35.06% this year and $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ has risen 37.27%. In leveraged products, $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ has surged 72.83% year to date and $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ is up 70.54%. In addition, the multi-precious metals allocation ETF $abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF(GLTR)$ has gained 24.77% so far this year.

Among silver ETFs, $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ has gained 31.93% year-to-date and ranks as one of the largest physically backed silver ETFs. $Silver Miners Etf(SIL)$ has risen 41.32% this year and focuses on the silver mining sector. $Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF(SILJ)$ has climbed 45.65% year-to-date, targeting small-cap silver mining companies. $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ , a 2x leveraged silver product, has gained 24.66% this year.

Looking back in time, on February 27 at the White House in Washington, President Donald Trump told reporters that he was dissatisfied with what he described as a “lack of sincerity” in the ongoing nuclear talks with Iran in Geneva, and emphasized that “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.” His remarks directly pushed up oil and gold prices, with WTI rising about 2.8% that day and gold breaking above the $5,200 level.

On February 28, the situation among the United States, Israel, and Iran entered a new phase. In the early morning of February 28 Eastern Time, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran, including facilities reportedly linked to missile and drone programs. U.S. officials said the operation was intended to respond to Iran’s recent “continued threats to regional stability.”

Shortly afterward, the Israel Defense Forces issued rocket and airstrike warnings toward Iran around midday the same day, and exchanges of fire later occurred near Israel’s northern border and in the direction of Lebanon.

That afternoon, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that, in response to the aggression, Iran had begun launching large-scale missile and drone attacks on “territories occupied by Israel.”

This series of actual military clashes took place within two days of the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, indicating that diplomatic channels and military containment mechanisms had simultaneously failed, and that regional tensions had entered a phase of substantive confrontation. Markets reacted quickly to the escalation, with safe-haven demand for precious metals surging.

If the conflict continues to intensify, will gold attempt to challenge the $5,500 level again next week? Will silver break above $110 once more?

Gold-related ETF recommendations:

$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ has total assets of approximately $184.8 billion and a management fee of 0.40%. It is one of the largest physically backed gold ETFs globally, offering strong liquidity and serving as a core portfolio allocation tool. $黄金信托ETF-iShares(IAU)$ has total assets of about $83.8 billion and a management fee of 0.25%. It provides similar exposure to GLD but at a lower cost, making it suitable for long-term, steady investors.

$VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ has total assets of around $36.6 billion and a management fee of 0.50%. It focuses on large-cap gold mining companies and offers greater leverage than spot gold, making it suitable for more aggressive positioning. $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ has total assets of approximately $12.2 billion and a management fee of 0.50%. It targets small-cap gold miners, with higher volatility and greater risk-reward potential.

$iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF(RING)$ has total assets of about $4.1 billion and a management fee of 0.39%. It tracks a global gold mining index, holds 45 positions, and offers relatively broad diversification suitable for medium- to long-term growth allocation.

$Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ has total assets of around $2.0 billion and a management fee of 1.09%. It is a 2x leveraged product tracking small-cap gold miners and is suited for short-term, high-volatility trading. $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ has total assets of about $2.5 billion and a management fee of 1.08%. It is a 2x leveraged ETF focused on large-cap gold miners, combining amplified returns with amplified volatility.

$abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF(GLTR)$ has total assets of approximately $3.4 billion and a management fee of 0.60%. It allocates across gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, serving as a diversified precious metals allocation tool.

Silver-related ETF recommendations:

$iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ has total assets of about $46.3 billion and a management fee of 0.50%. It is the largest physically backed silver ETF and a core instrument for silver exposure.

$Global X Silver Miners ETF(SIL)$ has total assets of approximately $7.4 billion and a management fee of 0.65%. It focuses on global silver mining companies and benefits from both rising silver prices and mining profit leverage. $Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF(SILJ)$ has total assets of about $6.1 billion and a management fee of 0.69%. It concentrates on small-cap silver miners, offering higher growth potential and greater volatility.

$ProShares Ultra Silver(AGQ)$ has total assets of around $0.8 billion and a management fee of 0.95%. It is a 2x leveraged product tracking spot silver, suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite.