CoreWeave 4Q25 Preview: Execution is the Only Catalyst That Matters Now
– CoreWeave is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, February 26, after the market close.
– The most important number to watch is active power.
– Options traders see an expected move of +/- 19% on earnings.
$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ heads into 4Q25 with fewer headline distractions than earlier in the year. In Q2 and Q3, investors were flooded with upbeat intra-quarter updates such as large deals, contracted power, capital raises, and M&A, which diluted the earnings print as a standalone catalyst. Q4 has been quieter, so the earnings day itself has a better chance of carrying the narrative.
That quieter newsflow comes with a higher bar. The stock has traded up about 36% YTD and has meaningfully outperformed large-cap software over the past three months, which keeps expectations elevated. The setup also tightened after NVIDIA-related commentary that management expects to contract an incremental 5 GW of power by 2030.
Financial Setup
Analysts estimate CoreWeave to post revenue of 1.53B for 2025Q4, EPS is estimated to be USD-0.685.
In its Q3 earnings report, the company provided a midpoint guidance of $1.542 billion for Q4 revenue and $125 million for adjusted operating profit. (Management noted that fiscal Q4 2025 will mark the largest hardware deployment in history, resulting in front-loaded costs, while revenue is being impacted by delivery delays of upstream powered shells.)
Three Key Takeaways
Active power is the near-term scorecard
The most important number to watch is active power, because it is the practical bottleneck for revenue in a supply constrained environment. CoreWeave exited Q3 with 590 MW of active power. Management's FY25 message requires exiting the year with more than 850 MW.
The math also makes this a binary moment. Intra-quarter datapoints included Applied Digital's delivery of 100 MW in total during October and November, and reports suggesting CoreWeave deployed more than 16,000 GPUs at its Denton, Texas facility. Taken together, the remaining gap as less than 160 MW to reach the greater-than-850 MW exit target.
If CoreWeave clears that hurdle, it strengthens the case that power is arriving on schedule. If it does not, the conversation quickly shifts from demand to execution risk, and execution risk tends to be what compresses multiples in this category.
Morgan Stanley highlights that powered shell capacity delays in the prior quarter pushed out capex and contributed to lower FY25 revenue guidance. That history matters because it explains why investors are now sensitive to the conversion process from construction in progress into actual capex deployment and delivered capacity.
Bookings need to look broader than one mega-deal at a time
Q4 has been relatively quiet on the new customer and deal front. Morgan Stanley suggests that might reflect a shift in timing, with larger contract announcements moving from intra-quarter to earnings.
With fewer large-deal headlines during Q4, it becomes harder for investors to triangulate expectations. That increases the importance of how management frames bookings quality. Market expectations are focused on two fronts: the durability of core bookings from the mid-market and broader enterprise segment, and the marginal growth contributed by large-customer expansion or new high-value lighthouse deals.
There is potential for 2026 guidance to outperform current projections
One quiet tailwind is pricing. In the six months through Feb 22, the GPU price chart shows the H100 rate index stepping up sharply from early December to 2.41, while the A100 index stayed mostly range-bound around 1.34 to 1.39. This suggests tightness is concentrated even at the relatively backward products, which supports CoreWeave's near-term monetization and makes a broad GPU price rollover look less likely.
Additional supporting metrics include the decrease in H100 and B200 availability observed since 2026.
Option Playbook
CoreWeave traded with an implied volatility (IV) of 121% on Tuesday, positioning it at a relatively high level. Options pricing suggests an expected post-earnings move of +/-15%. If you believe the current volatility is overpriced, you might consider option selling strategies.
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