Will S&P 500 Bottoms with Q4 Earnings ending?
As of Mon, 16 Feb 2026, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is in the final stretch of the Q4 2025 earnings season.
So far, results have been characterized by a "resilient but expensive" narrative, where corporate profits remain strong, but high valuations are keeping the market in a state of cautious volatility.
1. The Scorecard.
Earnings wave is nearly complete, with the majority of the "heavy hitters" having already shared their results, except for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (slated to report on 25 Feb 2026).
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Reported: Approximately 370 companies (74%) of the S&P 500 have reported actual results for the final quarter of 2025.
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Remaining: Roughly 130 companies yet to report. The most active remaining day for the season is projected to be 26 Feb 2026, with hundreds of smaller-cap names and lagging sectors scheduled.
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Growth Rate: The current blended earnings growth rate (combining actual results and estimates) for Q4 2025 is 13.2%. This marks the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.
2. Winners vs. Losers: The Sector Landscape
While the overall number is positive, there is a clear divide between (a) "AI-driven winners" and (b) "interest-sensitive laggards." (see below)
Standout Winners
Information Technology: (see below)
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The undisputed leader, reporting revenue growth of 20.6%.
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Heavyweight surprises from $Apple(AAPL)$ ($143.76 billion vs $138.39 billion) and $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ ($12.68 billion vs $10.42 billion) have buoyed the entire index.
Communication Services:
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Driven by $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and Google, this sector is seeing double-digit growth (12.2%).
Industrials:
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Surprising resilience from Boeing ($23.95 billion) and Caterpillar ($19.13 billion) helped this sector's revenue growth reach 7.8%.
Struggling Sectors
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Energy: The only sector reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues. (see above)
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Health Care: While revenue is up, downward revisions to earnings per share (EPS) estimates have made this a drag on the overall index growth.
Will S&P 500 Turnaround Soon?
The question of a turnaround (from recent falls back to record highs) depends on whether investors can look past current valuations.
The Valuation Barrier:
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The forward 12-month P/E ratio is currently 21.5x.
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This is significantly higher than the 10-year average of 18.8x.
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US market has "priced in" a lot of perfection; any small miss in guidance for 2026 causes sharp sell-offs (eg., S&P Global’s stock dropping -17% on 10 Feb 2026, after light guidance).
Probability of a Turnaround:
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Based on institutional consensus from Goldman Sachs and FactSet, the probability of a positive 2026 is high (70% - 80% likelihood of total positive returns for 2026), but the probability of a near-term V-shaped turnaround is moderate (50%).
Why the Hesitation?
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While earnings are growing, the "beat rate" is slipping (74% vs 78% average).
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Investors are no longer rewarding "beats" with massive rallies because the "surprise" magnitude is shrinking.
Summary
The landscape is one of "Healthy Deceleration."
Profits are still at record levels, but the "AI mania" is transitioning into a more sober assessment of actual adoption and margins.
If the S&P 500 holds its ground through the end of February 2026, the projected 14.4% earnings growth for full-year 2026 suggests that the current "fall" is more likely a healthy valuation reset than a prolonged bear market.
My viewpoints: (mine only)
I think the above analysis is “consistent” with a point that I have highlight in my previous post (click here ! to read about it)
In my 23 Jan 2026 post, I have shared that Energy sector ETF - $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ is one of the sectors, analysts view as a performing sector in 2026.
In this post, Energy has been mentioned as one of the struggling sectors in 2025; giving rise to a potential to outperform this year, should Tech giants (AMZN, GOOG, META etc…) proceed with their plan to scale up their AI data centres construction.
After all, they have already budgeted for it in their 2026 Capex.
Looks like there is consistency in analysts’ predictions and reportings afterall. What do you think?
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Do you think S&P 500 will turnaround by end February 2026’?
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Do you think US Energy sector will be one of the better performing sectors in 2026 ?
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$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Holds Steady at $681.75: Consolidation Before CPI Test 🧭 🎯 Core Drivers
Markets traded cautiously ahead of the critical January CPI report, with fears of a "hawkish surprise" (core CPI MoM potentially +0.4%) keeping bulls in check. Meanwhile, ongoing speculation about the policy direction under potential new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh continues to inject uncertainty into the rate outlook, capping major moves. 🎯 Analyst Targets
Wall Street sentiment is broadly positive. The consensus among major institutions is a Strong Buy, with a median price target implying significant upside from current levels, supported by long-term economic growth expectations.
🔮 Weekly Outlook
Expect consolidation between $677 and $692 in the coming week, with direction heavily dependent on the CPI data outcome. A break above $692 could reignite the rally toward $700+. A breakdown below $677 may see a test of the $670 support zone.
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