To The Moon

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ is scheduled to release its Q4 and Full Year 2025 financial results on Thursday, February 12, 2026, after market close.

After a volatile 2025 characterized by an 18% decline in annual deliveries and a strategic shift toward AI and mass-market production, this report is the "final bridge" before the highly anticipated R2 launch.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors will be looking past the raw delivery numbers (which were already released in January) to focus on margins and the 2026 outlook.

Rivian's fiscal Q3 2025 (reported November 4, 2024) was a landmark "bridge" quarter. It featured the company's first-ever positive gross profit, yet it was shadowed by a cautious narrowing of its annual guidance that highlighted the "demand air pocket" before the R2 launch.

Q3 2025 Financial Performance Summary

Revenue: $1.56 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, beating analyst estimates ($1.49B).

Gross Profit: $24 million, marking the first time Rivian turned a gross profit. This was a massive swing from the $392 million loss in the same quarter the previous year.

Deliveries: 13,201 vehicles, up 32% year-over-year. This surge was partially attributed to customers rushing to utilize the federal EV tax credit before certain provisions expired on September 30.

Software & Services: This segment was a standout, with revenue jumping 324% to $416 million, largely fueled by the $5 billion Volkswagen joint venture and increased service/remarketing revenue.

Liquidity: Ended the quarter with $7.1 billion in cash and short-term investments, providing roughly two years of runway.

The Guidance Revision

Despite the earnings beat, Rivian narrowed its full-year delivery guidance to 41,500 – 43,500 units (down from a previous midpoint that aimed higher toward 46,000 early in the year).

The Lesson Learned: The primary takeaway from this guidance shift was that demand for the high-end R1 series has hit a ceiling.

1. Macro Sensitivity: High interest rates and the expiration of tax credits made the $80k+ R1T and R1S a tougher sell, leading to a "pull-forward" of demand into Q3 that left Q4 looking leaner.

2. The "S-Curve" Pause: Rivian effectively admitted that until the more affordable R2 ($45,000) arrives in H1 2026, the company is in a "holding pattern." They are focusing on unit economics (making a profit on each car) rather than volume growth at any cost.

3. Efficiency over Scale: Management proved they could lower the "cost of goods sold" (COGS) significantly through a plant shutdown and re-tooling, but warned that Q4 would see lower production as they prepared the Normal, IL plant for R2 manufacturing validation.

Strategic Pivot: Beyond Just Hardware

A major lesson for investors in Q3 was that Rivian is no longer "just a truck company."

• The AI/Robotics Play: Rivian announced the formation of Mind Robotics, a subsidiary focused on industrial AI.

• The VW Lifecycle: The Volkswagen partnership became the primary driver of the software bottom line. The lesson here is that Rivian’s path to profitability is increasingly dependent on licensing its electrical architecture rather than just selling physical SUVs.

The "R2" Catalyst & 2026 Shift

The Q4 report is less about 2025 and more about the R2 SUV.

• The Price Point: At $45,000, the R2 targets the mass market (Tesla Model Y territory) vs. the luxury $80k–$100k R1 series.

• Manufacturing: Rivian has completed the R2 body shop in Normal, IL. Watch for updates on "robot commissioning" and the 155,000-unit annual capacity ramp.

• The AI Angle: In late 2025, Rivian's stock rallied on news of in-house autonomous driving silicon. Any concrete details on software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue from these features could provide a valuation "rerating."

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Price Target

Based on 27 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Rivian Automotive in the last 3 months. The average price target is $16.93 with a high forecast of $25.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a 13.14% change from the last price of $14.96.

Trading Analysis: Short-Term Opportunities

The implied one-day move for RIVN post-earnings is historically high, often around ±10%.

1. The "Bull" Scenario (Potential Long)

• Trigger: Rivian confirms positive gross profit for the quarter AND provides 2026 delivery guidance that exceeds 60,000 units (implying a strong R2 ramp).

• Trade: A break above recent resistance (around $18–$20) could trigger a short squeeze, as the stock has slumped ~33% from its December highs.

2. The "Bear" Scenario (Potential Short)

• Trigger: Management signals a delay in R2 production (e.g., shifting from "early 2026" to "late 2026") or reports a surprise gross loss due to supply chain costs or tariffs.

• Trade: The stock has a "floor" near its IPO lows, but a guidance miss could see it retest the $10–$12 range quickly.

3. The Volatility Play

• Strategy: Because Rivian often "beats" on EPS but "misses" on outlook (or vice versa), an options straddle (buying both a call and a put) can profit from a large move in either direction, though it requires a significant swing to cover the premium costs.

Note: The Volkswagen partnership (and the next $1.5B equity tranche) remains a massive safety net for the company's balance sheet, likely preventing a total "valuation collapse" even on a weak report.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing RIVN trying to make a break above the 200-day period and it looks like the negative RSI momentum have also reduced, so investors might be waiting for the update on the R2 timeline.

If there is any delay in R2 timeline, that we might see a selling off triggered, this could bring the share price close to $12, but if RIVN could provide an earnings surprise or positive guidance, then we could see a strong upside movement.

Summary

Rivian is set to report its Q4 2025 results on February 12, 2026, amidst a transition year where focus has shifted from high-volume production to unit-level profitability.

The Financial Snapshot

• Revenue & EPS: Wall Street expects revenue around $1.26B - $1.3B, a ~27% year-over-year decline. The projected adjusted EPS is a loss of $0.68 to $0.81.

• Margins: A key success metric is the Positive Gross Margin target. After hitting a slight profit in Q3, Rivian must prove this wasn't a one-off. Analysts expect a modest 2% margin.

• Cash Position: With roughly $7B in liquidity, the company has a runway into late 2026/2027, but the quarterly burn remains high at over $1B.

The "Demand Air Pocket"

The headline concern is the sharp 31% drop in Q4 deliveries (9,745 units). Management attributes this to a "pull-forward" effect: customers rushed to buy in Q3 before federal EV tax credits expired on September 30, 2025. Investors will watch if Q4 was truly a temporary dip or a sign of waning interest in the premium R1 line.

The 2026 Catalyst: R2 & AI

The report is essentially a "look-ahead" to the R2 SUV launch (H1 2026).

• Guidance: Investors are looking for 2026 delivery guidance of 60,000+ units, signaling a successful R2 ramp.

• Autonomy+: Expect updates on the new $49.99/month autonomy subscription service, which represents Rivian's push into high-margin software revenue.

Trading Outlook

RIVN carries an implied one-day move of ~10%.

• Bull Case: A gross profit beat combined with a firm H1 2026 R2 delivery date could spark a short squeeze toward the $18–$20 range.

• Bear Case: Any delay in the R2 timeline or a return to negative gross margins could see the stock retest historical lows near $10.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think RIVN could provide a better R2 timeline or we are going to see negative gross margins as well.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.