To The Moon

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ has navigated a period of intense volatility. Recently, the company achieved a landmark earnings milestone, amidst a shifting financial landscape where neobanks are increasingly seen as legitimate threats to traditional "Bulge Bracket" institutions. Despite earnings’ success, US market reaction remains mixed, leaving investors searching for a clear sense of direction, in an economy grappling with the early policy ripples of the Trump administration. On Fri, 30 Jan 2026, SoFi released its Q4 2025 blow out earnings. The report capped what CEO Anthony Noto described as SoFi’s “first full year as a truly scaled, diversified financial services platform” with non‑lending segments now generating the majority of revenue. For the first time in the company's history, it surpassed the $1 billion mark in (adjusted) net revenue, reaching $1.01 billion. It is a significant +37% - +39.6% YoY jump. (see below) Q4 2025 Earnings: Earnings Per Share (EPS): came in at $0.13, beating the Wall Street consensus of $0.12. (see below) Net Income: The company posted a GAAP net income of $174 million, marking its 5th consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability, a feat that finally silences critics who once labeled it a "cash-burning" fintech. (see below) Adjusted EBITDA: This metric came in at approximately $318 million, reflecting strong operational efficiency and a margin that suggests SoFi is successfully scaling its "financial services productivity loop”. Management highlighted that this was SoFi’s first time crossing the $1 billion mark in annual EBITDA as well, with margins expanding meaningfully vs 2024, a rare feat for a high‑growth fintech still in heavy investment mode. Growth Drivers: The results were bolstered by a nearly two-fold increase in home-loan originations and rapid expansion in fee-based businesses, such as SoFi Invest and other service-related segments. Anecdotally, the surge in home loans comes as SoFi capitalizes on its streamlined digital application process, that many Gen Z & Millennial borrowers prefer over the cumbersome paperwork of legacy banks. Interestingly, financial services and the technology platform together contributed roughly 57% of Q4 2025 revenue, up sharply YoY, showing SoFi is becoming less dependent on traditional lending spreads and more on capital‑light, scalable fee income. Full Year 2025. For full‑year 2025, management highlighted record adjusted net revenue of about $3.6 billion. This is up roughly +38% YoY, and net income of around $481 million, with margin expansion versus 2024. Membership wise, it has reached a total of about 13.7 million by year‑end. It is a +35% jump in just twelve months, illustrating how quickly SoFi is still adding to its digital‑first franchise despite a more cautious macro backdrop. 2026 Guidance & Outlook. Q1 2026. SoFi guided to adjusted net revenue of roughly $1.04 billion and EPS near $0.12, broadly in line to slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations. That guidance implies SoFi expects to sustain billion‑dollar quarters right out of the gate in 2026, a psychological shift from “can they get to scale?” to “how efficiently can they grow from here?” among institutional investors. Full Year 2026. SoFi Management has set an ambitious target for adjusted net revenue, aiming to reach approximately $4.655 billion in revenue. Target for earnings per share (EPS) is set at roughly $0.60, a goal that is slightly higher than the market consensus of $0.59. These targets reinforce a profile of double-digit top-line growth and robust EPS growth. If achieved, SoFi would be growing several times faster than large US banks, that are generally expected to post low‑ to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth in 2026. This highlight the gap in structural growth trajectories between the upstart and the incumbents. Future growth will be fueled by 3 main areas: Firstly, fee-based services like investing and crypto, that are expanding quickly. With recent 2026 crypto rally, SoFi’s integrated platform is seeing record engagement from retail traders. Secondly, home loan originations, that have nearly doubled. Thirdly, customer base enlargement and new & innovative products launch including rumored AI-driven personalized financial planning tools expected later this year. Management has emphasized that SoFi’s technology platform is increasingly being licensed by other financial institutions, turning a former competitor set into paying customers, that could make the business model more resilient through credit cycles. Ratings and Price targets With Q4 earnings out, latest aggregated view shows a consensus “Hold” rating for SoFi, reflecting a widespread between bulls and bears despite strong prints. Based on the latest data compiled by MarketBeat: SoFi has a mixed outlook with 6 positive ratings (Buy/Strong Buy), 12 neutral (Hold), and 3 negative (Sell). Wall Street maintains a consensus price target of roughly $25.50. Given the recent post‑earnings sell‑off, that still represents upside from early‑February prices, reinforcing the idea that sentiment has cooled faster than fundamentals. Drill down details : Citigroup: Raised price target to $37 with “Buy” rating. Mizuho: Set a high price target of $38. Barclays: Raised price target to $28 with “Equal Weight” rating. Truist: Cut target to $28 with “Hold” rating. Goldman Sachs: Trimmed price target to $24 with “Hold” rating. In short, the median Street view is cautious but not bearish, with target prices still implying upside versus where shares have been trading after the post‑earnings pullback. Sell Off Catalysts. Despite a beat‑and‑raise quarter, SoFi sold off sharply following earnings report. It has been trending down into early February 2026. Key near‑term catalysts and overhangs since 18 Jan 2026 include: (1) Profits vs Expectations bar reset On 31 Jan 2026, SoFi closed down -6.4% to $22.81, after trading as high as $26.33 intraday, on a heavy volume of about 132 million shares changing hands. The market interpreted the beating as “already priced in” after a +75% run in 2025. SoFi’s 2026 guidance, while positive, was (1) not a blow‑out vs the more aggressive bull cases for 2026 margins and (2) not high enough to satisfy the most optimistic investors. In effect, SoFi fell victim to the classic “great results, tougher bar” dynamic that often hits momentum names when expectations get ahead of even strong execution. (2) Valuation and recent equity raises / dilution risk Analysts are concerned because SoFi recently raised about $3 billion, selling new shares. This move follows the classic "Apple-esque" strategy of raising capital when the sun is shining to ensure enough "dry powder" for aggressive market-share grabs. The new stock, along with insiders selling during Q4 2025, has triggered questions about dilution & capital allocation. According to MarketBeat, even as fundamentals improve, above actions served as negative sentiment driver. Ironically, the fresh equity significantly boosts SoFi’s regulatory capital and gives it more dry powder to grow its balance sheet and technology investments.. Unfortunate trade-off in the short run - headlines focus more on dilution than on strategic firepower that comes with a stronger capital base. (3) Regulatory Change and Market Impact. SoFi’s CEO Anthony Noto has framed Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card APRs as a potential positive move. When enacted, it could compress bank card yields and create a “massive” gap that personal loans (including SoFi’s) can fill. However, Wall Street also focuses on the regulatory uncertainty. The 10% cap could alter economics across consumer lending and make investors more cautious on the sector until there is clarity. CEO Noto has argued publicly that if card lenders pull back, well‑underwritten personal loans could become a key safety valve for consumers, positioning SoFi as a beneficiary of disruption that might initially spook the broader financials complex. (4) Credit‑cycle and revenue‑mix risk perception SoFi is shifting toward fee‑based income and using outside platforms to make loans. While investors usually value this type of business, some worry SoFi’s growth will be driven by “looser” credit by lowering its lending standards or taking on too much risk, in an increasingly, uncertain US economy. Internal data suggests SoFi’s average member still maintains a high-tier FICO score, often exceeding 740. Commentary flags that a combination of rising unemployment and creeping delinquencies could quickly turn today’s strong revenue into tomorrow’s loss cycle, a classic concern for high‑growth consumer lenders. (5) Positioning & Profit‑taking. Around late January 2026, analysts noted that SoFi’s stock fell partly because investors were cashing out their gains. This "profit-taking" followed SoFi’s very strong 2025 performance and a December capital raise. In short, SoFi’s recent selloff is not caused by issues in its year-end financial report but by a combination of positioning, valuation, capital‑raise optics, and macro/policy fear - classic late‑cycle fintech behavior. For longer‑term holders, this kind of de‑risking phase often sets up the next leg of the story once the shareholder base rotates from short‑term momentum to more patient capital. SoFi’s Technical Analysis Recent technical snapshots into early February 2026, show SoFi has rolled over from a strong uptrend into a correction with oversold momentum readings. Details are as follows : (see below) As of Mon, 02 Feb 2026 closing SoFi is experiencing a period of significant technical weakness following its Q4 earnings report. The stock has broken thru’ several key support levels, and current indicators lean heavily bearish. Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) The stock’s relationship with its moving averages indicates a shift from a rising trend to a potential medium-term decline. In the short term, SoFi is expected to remain volatile as stock price is still below its 20-day SMA ($25.98) and 50-day SMA ($26.77). Its long-term prospect is also shaky as stock price is marginally below its 200-day SMA ($22.74). Hopefully there will be greater clarity by end of the week. MACD: Its MACD is exhibiting the same consistent short-term volatility: The MACD (12, 26) is at -1.00, remaining in negative territory below the signal line ( -0.61). Both and both are below the zero line, a textbook bearish configuration that reflects downside momentum building over several weeks, not just a one‑day flush. The negative divergence (-0.39) indicates that downward momentum is still active. RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides one of the few potential silver linings for bulls, as it suggests the sell-off may be reaching an extreme. SoFi's 14-day RSI has dropped to roughly 27.00. Technically, SoFi is considered oversold. Current reading (27.0) marks one of the most oversold prints on SoFi’s 1‑year lookback. This "screaming" oversold signal often precedes a technical bounce as selling pressure reaches exhaustion. Historically, readings in the high‑20s on SoFi’s RSI have often coincided with at least short‑term bounces as dip‑buyers step back in, even if the broader consolidation takes longer to resolve. My viewpoints : (mine only) SoFi’s recent volatility indicates that it is at a pivotal junction. Playing Catchup. I cannot wrap my head around why Wall Street balked at SoFi $3 billion, new shares issuance. It is perfectly normal, and in fact strategically healthy, for SoFi to issue new shares at this stage of its life cycle. While the company pursues its bid to catch up to "goliaths" like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ and $Bank of America(BAC)$ , such moves are essential to narrowing the gap against industry giants. In the banking world, capital is the ultimate weapon. To compete effectively, SoFi requires a massive balance sheet to: Hold more loans, allowing the bank to retain high-quality assets rather than selling them off. Fund innovative product launches to ensure it remains at the forefront of the fintech revolution. Unlike mature megabanks that rely primarily on (a) retained earnings and (b) share buybacks to return value, a fast-growing fintech bank operate differently. SoFi utilizes equity raises to (i) bulk up regulatory capital, (ii) fund rapid balance-sheet expansion, and (iii) invest heavily in technology and customer acquisition. In doing so, SoFi management is effectively trading modest dilution (today) for the ability to scale into a much larger profit pool tomorrow. CEO Anthony Noto has confirmed that the recent capital raise has added approx. $2.00 /share to the bank's tangible book value, further fortifying its "fortress balance sheet" to a total capital ratio of 22.9%, well above the regulatory minimum. Looking at enclosed performance data, justification for SoFi's aggressive move is clear: (see above) Growth Velocity: Over the past 12 months, SoFi has outpaced JPM and BAC significantly, posting a +41.30% return compared to JPM's +18.01% and BAC's +17.83%. Agility: The chart shows that while the "Big 2" move in a steady, slow-climb fashion, SoFi exhibits the high-beta characteristics of a tech disruptor. Recent dip to current +41.30% level from its December highs is a classic "consolidation" phase. Valuation Gap: JPM and BAC are mature "value" plays; while SoFi is a "growth" engine. Dilution is a small price to pay for the capital required to maintain that 2x lead in percentage growth. Above chart also shows that: SoFi enjoyed a powerful rally during mid-2025. This momentum eventually stalled, forming a broad "topping range" where the price struggled to climb higher. Recently, the stock price broke below that range, signaling a technical downturn. Despite recent pull back, SoFi’s 12-month performance is still significantly higher than giants JPM and BAC. This contrast highlights how short-term price pressure can often hide a stock’s potential for long-term outperformance. If the stock can close the week above the $22.74 (support level), the extremely oversold RSI suggests a potential recovery toward the $24.00 range. However, a decisive break below $22.74 could accelerate selling as the long-term trend would turn bearish, setting the stage for an add-on to my SoFi’s holdings. I am focused on the long term and not worried about current volatility as long as SoFi’s business stays resilient. It’s a keeper! Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks. LVMUY Slowdown, Time to Exit / Enter ? TSLA investors Short Change by Musk, AGAIN ! Buy NVDA, GOOG, MSFT if US Shutdown again? Do you think SoFi’s past quarterly earnings clearly indicates that this is a long term “Hold” ’? Do you think SoFi’s current volatility will blow over and it will scale to new highs in 2026? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents