BTC - Monthly Logarithmic Chart
BTCUSD - Monthly Logarithmic Chart
This primary trendline has served as a definitive floor for every major correction exceeding 50% since 2014.
BTC is currently trading 3.9x ATR% below the 50-MA. This extension suggests an asymmetric risk-reward profile favoring the long side, provided you can entry manage a base or intraday entry on LoD off a key technical level, ie. $59,998 low coinciding with round number support $60,000.
Further breakdown from current level will mirror November 2018, the last time BTC hit -4x ATR% from the 50-MA. That instance saw a further -42% flush from a bear flag setup before the ultimate bottom was set, leading to a massive 350% 6-month surge.
If the current market correction deepens with more pain displayed on media headlines, BTC is shaping up to be a high-conviction opportunistic play. The goal is to stay patient and wait for the 'washout' to provide the high upside entry
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