Retail All-In as Risk Cracks: SPX, QQQ, IWM Flash Warning, BTC Downside Risk
Retail risk-taking is near extremes, with Citadel’s gauge in the 95th percentile. Momentum just saw its worst day since March 2020, a rare 6-sigma move.
If Bitcoin follows past bear-cycle patterns, downside toward $40K or lower remains in play—pressuring $MSTR$, $COIN$, and ETH.
Retail is all in.
Citadel’s Retail Investor “Risk On/Off” Gauge is in the 95th percentile versus history.
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
Today was the worst day for Momentum (-11.5%) since the March 2020 Covid Crash.
6 sigma move.
Bitcoin is an asset that typically declines upwards of -70%+ during its Bear cycles.
If this pattern holds, BTC could see $40k or lower this year.
$Strategy(MSTR)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ETH
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