PLTR Earnings Guess: Where Will the Stock Close This Friday?
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ will release earnings on Monday.
Wall Street currently expects Q4 EPS of $0.23 and revenue of $1.34 billion, representing YoY growth of 64% and 62%.
Notably, consensus revenue estimates now exceed Palantir’s own prior guidance, suggesting the market is already pricing in a beat. As a result, attention may shift quickly to 2026 outlook, particularly U.S. commercial growth and free cash flow trends.
Whether Palantir is approaching its “Google moment”
The tone set by CEO Alex Karp and CFO Ana Soro on guidance will be critical.
Since its Q3 earnings, $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ has pulled back roughly 20%, yet analyst consensus estimates for future earnings have not been revised lower.
Historically, PLTR’s stock price has tracked changes in forward EPS expectations closely. If management once again raises guidance — something it has done multiple times in the past — the stock could quickly re-rate.
Valuation risk remains elevated.
Skeptics point to extreme valuation and warn that expectations may already be too high.
PLTR trades at roughly 274x forward earnings, far above the sector median. While valuation alone doesn’t cap upside, it can amplify downside if growth disappoints. Investors will also scrutinize GAAP free cash flow, given prior declines in adjusted FCF margins and ongoing stock-based compensation.
Palantir has staged dramatic comebacks before, including a 340% surge in 2024 after an early-year pullback. Whether history rhymes again will depend on whether this earnings report can reset expectations.
Comment to join the guess to win tiger coins:
After Monday’s earnings, where do you think PLTR will close by Friday?
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🟢 Above $160
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🟡 $140–$160
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🔴 Below $140
Will Palantir stage a comeback?
Is $200 easy to hit in 2026?
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值得注意的是，市場普遍的收入預期現在超過了Palantir自己之前的指導，這表明市場已經在節拍中定價。因此，注意力可能會迅速轉移到2026年展望，特別是美國商業增長和自由現金流趨勢。
從歷史上看，PLTR的股價一直密切跟蹤遠期每股收益預期的變化。如果管理層再次提高指引（過去曾多次這樣做），該股可能會很快重新評級。
Given current market conditions and derivatives pricing, the most likely outcome is:
🟡 $140–$160
Volatility Expectations: Options markets are currently pricing in a post-earnings move of approximately 9.1% in either direction. A 9% move upward from the current $146.59 would put the stock at roughly $160, while a similar downward move would drop it to near $133.
Technical Support: The stock is currently sitting near its 200-day moving average (~$147). If earnings are solid but not spectacular, the stock may remain range-bound between $140 and $160 as it consolidates recent losses.
Bull/Bear Scenarios: An "Above $160" close would require a massive "beat and raise" on US commercial revenue, while a "Below $140" close is likely if forward guidance fails to justify its high valuation.
Yes, a comeback is possible and widely expected by several institutional analysts.
While "$200" is a prominent target, it is not necessarily "easy" given the stock's extreme valuation.
Comment to join the guess to win tiger coins:
After Monday’s earnings, where do you think PLTR will close by Friday?
🟢 Above $160
🟡 $140–$160
🔴 Below $140
Will Palantir stage a comeback?
Is $200 easy to hit in 2026?
此外，预计接下来的一周将是动荡的一周，尤其是黄金和白银创下单日跌幅纪录。这可能会拖累股票价格下跌。由于新任美联储主席预计将持鹰派态度，可能会维持利率稳定而不是降息，这将进一步限制PLTR等股票的上涨空间。
考虑到所有这些宏观因素，PLTR有可能跌破140美元，但我相信其结果将有助于将其保持在140-160美元的范围内。