To The Moon

🆕Macquarie Warrants Singapore has listed a new SGX put warrant this morning, allowing investors to now participate in both bullish and bearish views on SGX shares in the short term!

❓With $SGX(S68.SI)$ due to report in two weeks, what should investors expect or look out for?

🗓Macquarie Research (MQ) published a research report on 12 January summarising SGX’s December stats, and their expectations for SGX’s upcoming results announcement

📝Read more for the full article containing excerpts of MQ’s report and important disclaimers

Key points

• SGX's Dec-2025 stats wrap up 1H FY26. Securities turnover for the half was up 20% YoY, with derivatives volume up 9% YoY

• Optimism on Singapore stock market reforms is likely to support the shares, but valuation appeal is lacking. Dividends are preset

• MQ raised FY2026-2028 earnings per share (EPS) 7-9% and target price 18% to S$17.50. Within Singapore financials, MQ prefers IFAST and OCBC

Observations from the data

• Dec-2025 statistics highlights. December monthly stats complete SGX's 1H FY26. Securities trading in the past two quarters was consistent at an S$1.5 billion average daily value. Although December was seasonally slower, turnover was 23% above Dec-2024. Derivatives volume rose 17%, led by FX and commodities, with Index Futures volume up 7% YoY in December. For 1H FY26, derivatives volume rose 9% YoY.

• Financial expectations. SGX is set to report earnings on 5 February. MQ expects 1H FY26 underlying profit of S$331 million up 14% half-on-half. Statutory profit could be higher due to gains from sales of non-core assets (MQ estimates headline PATMI of S$360 million)

• Capital return policy is set. The earnings outlook is unlikely to change the preset dividend progression. At current levels, the shares offer a 2.5-3.0% yield over the next three years. Relative to global peers, SGX is trading at a premium (27x forward P/E vs 23x FactSet consensus)

Earnings changes: MQ raised their respective FY2026/2027/2028 EPS estimates by 7.0%/8.7%/8.5% to reflect higher derivatives growth (9% vs 2% prior) and sustained securities turnover at S$1.5 billion

Valuation: MQ raised their target price by 18% to S$17.50, from S$14.80 (based on a dividend discount model stock methodology), driven by a higher growth parameter for MQ’s dividend discount model (dividend per share for FY2026-2028 is preset by the company). MQ has a Neutral rating on SGX shares

Catalysts: 1H FY26 earnings pre-market on 5 February

Note:Macquarie Research is independent from the Warrants business, what the Macquarie Warrants desks quote from Macquarie Research may not reflect the complete analysis of Macquarie Research on the relevant company over time.

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Macquarie has trending call and put warrants on tight spreads and high liquidity tracking SGX. The trending call warrant $SGX MB eCW260630(QABW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/QABW ) is trading 13.2% higher to S$0.060 as of 9AM this morning on the back of SGX’s 3.5% return this year to date.

​​​​​​​Trending put warrant $SGX MB ePW260730(RSFW.SI)$ (https://warrants.com.sg/tools/livematrix/RSFW ) is newly listed this morning, and currently trading at S$0.057 versus SGX’s S$17.44 price level as of 910AM. Interested investors can click onto the warrants’ Live Matrix links to see how the warrants move alongside SGX shares.

As one might already have noted, the warrants cost a fraction of SGX’s share price and tends to move in greater percentages than the share price due to their gearing effect. However, one may also wish to note that this geared effect is a double-edged sword, causing the warrants to fall in greater magnitude than the shares should your view be wrong.