Yes, I feel, the current high geopolitical risk premium is a significant factor justifying further upside for gold & other precious metals in 2026. In the precious metals space, I think silver has more potential for stronger percentage gains, while gold can also be expected to perform well. Oil, however, faces a more bearish outlook due to a supply surplus if US manages to flood the market with Venezuelan & other sources. This along with expectations of central bank rate cuts and continued institutional buying, suggests potential for further price appreciation in gold, with some banks forecasting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce or higher in various scenarios. However, a sudden de-escalation of global tensions, which ideally would be welcome, could reduce this premium and pressure prices.
On tge other hand, silver has a particularly strong outlook driven by both its safe-haven appeal and robust industrial demand, especially from the solar and electronics sectors. With the market in a structural supply deficit, I believe silver is still cheap relative to gold and has significant room to run, with technical targets potentially reaching $72 to $88 per ounce - who knows could even be $100 in a couple of years.
Now coming finally to oil, the outlook depends whether the politics leads to a surplus or glut overall viz. will Russian oil be allowed to be sold in higher quantities; if and how soon will Iran or Venezuelan oil reach the market; will other oil producers like Saudi increase output? Overall, it may be generally bearish. A global supply surplus, driven by non-OPEC production growth outpacing demand growth, is expected to keep prices moderate. WTI crude oil is projected to average around $59 per barrel for the year, with a structural bearish trend identified in technical analysis. Geopolitical risks in key production areas like the Middle East could still cause short-term volatility and price spikes, but the overall fundamental picture points to sufficient supply.
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