Tesla Quick Take: 2026 Could See Unsupervised Robotaxi and FSD Launch
Robotaxi and FSD largely support $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Robotaxi Current Operations:
1. Tesla Robotaxi has a pricing advantage over Waymo: Tesla Robotaxi initially charged a fixed fare of $4.20 per trip, later adjusted to $6.90 for an expanded service area. The latest pricing model has gradually shifted to dynamic pricing, about $1.5 per mile. In comparison, Waymo's pricing in San Francisco and Phoenix is about $2.5 per mile, reaching over $3 per mile during peak hours.
2. Tesla Robotaxi operations are currently limited to Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area in California. However, Tesla's operational area in both locations is significantly larger than Waymo's, with potential expansion to multiple U.S. states by 2026. Announced expansion areas include Miami, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, and other cities.
3. Key pain points for Robotaxi are long waiting times and a small actual operational fleet. As of December, Tesla had about 1,655 vehicles registered in California, with 132 actually operating. In Austin, about 40 vehicles are in operation. Therefore, Robotaxi itself has not yet contributed substantial revenue to Tesla and is still in the early verification stage.
4. In terms of accident rates, Robotaxi has not experienced any serious traffic accidents since its operation began. From May 2025 to now, 16 incidents have been reported to NHTSA, including 2 airbag deployment accidents (both triggered by other vehicles, with the Robotaxi unharmed). Most accidents resulted in no injuries. Robotaxi appears to be relatively safe so far.
FSD Penetration Increase and Cybercab Will Be the Next Catalysts
1. FSD penetration rate is expected to continue increasing
Although Robotaxi is unlikely to contribute significant revenue to Tesla in the short term, it has driven the increase in FSD penetration. FSD V14, compared to V12/13, begins to use a single system for both passenger cars and Robotaxis, with only minor functional differences (such as the autonomous parking mode for consumer versions, which is not necessary for Robotaxis).
V14 tends to be more conservative in its driving strategy, and most importantly, the FSD model architecture upgrade may introduce a distilled version of Grok. After future iterations, MPI (Miles Per Intervention) is expected to continue increasing. Currently, the FSD subscription rate has risen from single-digit penetration to 13%-19% as of September 2025.
Tesla's cumulative production fleet size from its establishment to the end of 2025 is about 9 million vehicles, meaning the current FSD subscription fleet size is estimated at around 1 million. Since FSD subscriptions are mostly in the U.S., and U.S. sales have accounted for about half of Tesla's total sales in recent years, this implies that the FSD penetration rate in the U.S. has significantly exceeded 20%.
With the introduction of the Grok model boosting FSD software, investors will expect Tesla's Robotaxi to operate without safety personnel, FSD unsupervised version to be implemented, and FSD commercialization to accelerate in Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions by 2026. Additionally, whether Tesla can obtain full approval in its second-largest market, China, is a key variable. Currently, FSD functionality in China is restricted and only offers a one-time purchase pricing model at 64,000 RMB (about $9,000), with a penetration rate of less than 5%. Full approval and a switch from one-time purchase to monthly subscription pricing would significantly lower the barrier and drive FSD penetration in China.
2. Cybercab May Enter Production
Tesla is currently testing the Cybercab production system, with Musk expecting mass production to begin in April 2026. Multiple Cybercabs have been spotted undergoing road tests in Austin. However, based on images captured by witnesses, the current test prototypes are equipped with temporary steering wheels and side mirrors to ensure safety and compliance. In Tesla's plan, Cybercab is positioned as Tesla's "highest production volume model in history," with a target annual production capacity of 2 million units, although achieving this in the short term is highly challenging.
In summary, comparing Tesla's commercialization expectations for Robotaxi at the beginning of 2025, we believe most have been achieved (Robotaxi has a low accident rate, and a truly usable version without safety personnel is already in testing). Currently, the most important aspects to focus on are the expansion of the fleet size and the Cybercab production schedule. After all, a Robotaxi with a 30-40 minute waiting time and safety personnel supervision is not considered a truly commercialized version.
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