$Apple(AAPL)$ well, buy the dip or investment trap? Let me think. To buy a dip, it must be a dip. And to understand if it's a dip, I think you need to do ALOT of DD to find out. So let's go there with apple, from a personal users perspective. Buckle up tiger friends cause it's story time.
So in 1988, I started my journey towards a university degree in business. One of the first papers I did was called computer systems. three quarters of the course was learning on an IBM (no compatibles then, just IBM). The last quarter was learning apples.
After I completed the course, it was like black and white. Dos, Edlin and Joe spreadsheet and the green screen absolutely sucked. Apple on the other hand, grey and white screen, an operating system decades ahead of dos, and apple could network, even back then. I vowed to never work on any other computer than apple.
Fast forward to 1989, traded my type writer in for a computer. But on a student income it was very clear... apple was not an option, way way way out of my price range. so I purchased a second hand ibm, that was actually pretty fancy... it had twin floppy drives, amazing!
For perspective, the hard drive had not been invented yet, internet had not been invented either. And there was no such thing as a cell phone. if you wanted to google something. You had to get on your push bike, go to the library and read a book. If you wanted to know how your stocks were doing, you brought the morning newspaper and found out yesterday's price.
I'm sure I've lost half of you at this point cause you can't comprehend what I'm saying. Don't worry though we had electricity, fridges, cars, and as a uni student, double beds.
But back to apple. After graduating, I joined the workforce. Sadly every business I worked for had ibm compatibles. This is the first time apple really dropped the ball. IBM licensed Out their technology so their computers were so much cheaper than apple. apple had a clear moat though, their computers were like 10x better. But not affordable. If they had even just offered uni students deals, like discounted prices and payment terms. Well I think history would be different. future Decision makers, take a short term hit, bank long term.
So because ibm was a better option for businesses due to cost, I had to injure windows. the first version sucked so bad that I'd back slash out of it and use dos. Later versions weren't much better.
But things finally changed dramatically in 2006. i quit working for others and set up my own business. My first order of business, buy a new computer. And yes it was apple. It cost 3x more than the IBM equivalent, over $3000. That's back in 2006 boys and girls! My decision though, and it was easy. I had to have the best, and the best was apple.
Then came the iPhone, a no brainer to buy for myself, all my staff, and eventually my children to as they were old enough. I had to have a Mac book Too. Then the iPad came out and obviously I brought that too. Plus a Time Machine to back stuff up before iCloud was invented, and the other thing um, it plugged into your wall, and into the back of your stereo. Basically I had Spotify in my house almost two decades before Spotify was invented. All thanks to apple.
Fast forward to a few years ago, 2022. My apple desktop computer died. I'd purchased another in 2021, because the old girl was no longer supported. But she still did a few things way faster than the new iMac, weird. and my old girl died at 16yo. Incredible! Incidentally I'm on my forth iPad now. But the first one is still going, my grandkids have it, and its screen Isn't cracked. Again not supported but it's perfectly fine for them, streaming stuff on you tube. so number one still going, two died, three died, 2 and 3 cracked screens... beginning of the end. forth iPad hmmm I wonder for how long... cracked screen.
Fast Forward to today. And thank you if you are still with me. So, about 4 years ago, I was over running my own business. Decided I'm done. so I got a job. And OMG I have to use inferior computers And software. Noooooo!
But woopsie, I quickly discovered that Microsoft is kinda superior. for investing, google sheets is way better on android. The windows platform is now superior to the iOS platform. My iPhone recently died just after its warranty expired. Went to buy a new iPhone... $1600, next to it was a Samsung did the same for $300.
So what's my point? Would i buy the dip? Hmmm, so what happened to IBM? What is apples USP? To be fair it's brand and customer loyalty. But it's not the product anymore. Quite frankly seeing an iPhone next to a Samsung, same specs, $1600 vs $300! That insults all loyalty I ever had. as a loyal customer for decades, I now see your product as no longer a decade ahead of competition. It's more like you are playing catch up. And you are ripping me off.
I'm not buying the dip. I compare apple to peers like $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$ and while they both innovate, apple does not. Apple just seems to be putting out shittier and shittier products and slowly eroding their loyalty base.
Not an investment for me.
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