To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Li Auto(LI)$  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  2Jan26 🇺🇸|3Jan26 🇳🇿

Liquidity sweep completed. Upper range tagged near $462.50, lower range resolved near $440. Seven consecutive red sessions now on the tape, the longest losing streak since April 2024. New year, familiar $TSLA behaviour.

📊 My Daily Structure And Technical Read

I’m seeing textbook momentum compression rather than structural failure. Price pushed into the upper band near $462.50 before resolving lower into the $440 liquidity pocket, completing a full range rotation. On the 4H and 30m charts, Keltner and Bollinger envelopes have compressed sharply, with price leaning against the lower bands rather than breaking trend integrity. The EMA stack at 13, 21, and 55 has flattened and rolled modestly lower, reflecting momentum suppression. RSI has cooled back into neutral territory, unwinding prior excess. MACD has reset and flattened, consistent with digestion following a strong impulse leg.

The momentum score collapsed to 1 as of 31Dec25, down from the 4–5 regime that dominated late November and early December. That rollover aligns with bearish analyst revisions, Europe demand softness, and intensifying competitive headlines. Importantly, volume expanded on sell-side pushes and compressed on rebounds, pointing to responsive selling and institutional absorption rather than disorderly liquidation. Key battle zones remain clear: reclaim interest above $452.09, overhead supply layered through $464.70–$470, with heavier resistance bands at $477.21, $488.93, and $497.01. Below, $438–$440 remains the primary liquidity magnet and structural test.

🔍 My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage

Autonomy remains the axis around which the long-duration thesis turns. Tesla’s FSD data flywheel is structural and compounding. Every real-world mile driven globally feeds a vertically integrated system spanning hardware, software, and in-house AI training. This continuously widens the moat versus legacy OEMs that lack both data density and end-to-end control.

Recent progress includes FSD v14 trials in North America, a planned UAE rollout in January 2026, and a roadmap toward unsupervised FSD by the end of 2026, subject to regulatory clearance. Tesla also demonstrated a full coast-to-coast autonomous drive without interventions, reinforcing the scale and quality of its neural network stack. I continue to frame autonomy as a platform, not a feature.

On robotics, the Optimus narrative has sharpened. Optimus Gen 3 is framed around a production-intent prototype reveal in early 2026, with factory-first deployment and longer-dated scaling ambitions. Crucially, Optimus shares neural networks with FSD. That shared intelligence layer allows for step-change capability gains even if physical volume ramps trail some competitors initially. Execution risk remains, but the optionality is substantial.

🧠 Analyst Framing And Street Positioning

Analyst tone remains bifurcated, reinforcing the compression regime.

Wedbush reiterated Outperform with a $600 price target, highlighting Q4 deliveries as better than feared and framing AI, autonomy, Cybercab, and energy as the dominant drivers into 2026.

Morgan Stanley reiterated Equalweight with a $425 price target, reflecting caution around near-term execution and demand elasticity.

Stifel maintained Buy with a $508 price target, emphasising long-duration optionality across autonomy and energy despite near-term volatility.

Truist Securities maintained Hold and trimmed its price target to $439 from $444, citing delivery mix and Europe softness while acknowledging stabilisation signs.

This dispersion underscores a market transitioning from narrative expansion to proof, with valuation hinging on execution rather than aspiration.

📰 My Read On Dark Pool Positioning And Institutional Flow

Despite the momentum score collapse and headline pressure, price behaviour continues to suggest controlled positioning rather than broad distribution. Off-exchange participation remains elevated, and volatility has been absorbed near the lower range. Stabilisation near $440 signals ongoing institutional tolerance. A failure of this zone would confirm a deeper reset, while holding it preserves the broader structure.

🎯 My Trend Map And What I Am Watching Next

I’m mapping this phase as compression with a mild downside bias until proven otherwise. Acceptance back above $452.09, followed by a reclaim of $464.70–$470, would signal renewed expansion. Failure to hold $438–$440 opens the door to further structural testing. Liquidity remains stacked overhead, and any upside expansion must be confirmed by volume and momentum follow-through. Headlines remain noise unless validated by price reaction.

🌍 Global Demand And Product Validation

Global demand signals remain mixed across regions.

🇳🇴 Norway delivered 5,679 units in December, up 89% year over year, with year-to-date sales of 34,285, up 41%.

🇫🇷 France delivered 1,942 units, down 66% year over year, with year-to-date sales down 37%.

🇪🇸 Spain delivered 1,794 units, down 44% year over year, with year-to-date sales down 4%.

🇸🇪 Sweden delivered 821 units, down 71% year over year, with year-to-date sales down roughly 67%.

These figures highlight incentive sensitivity and regulatory friction rather than a collapse in EV adoption.

🇨🇳 In China and globally, competition intensified. BYD overtook Tesla in full-year BEV sales, delivering roughly 2.26 million BEVs in 2025 versus Tesla’s approximately 1.64 million, with total BYD deliveries reaching 4.6 million.

Peer data reinforces the competitive backdrop. $NIO delivered a record 48,135 vehicles in December, up 54.6% year over year, with full-year deliveries of 326,028, up 46.9%. $LI delivered 44,246 vehicles in December, pushing cumulative deliveries past 1.5 million. $XPEV delivered 37,508 vehicles in December and posted full-year deliveries of 429,445, up 126%, supported by rapid overseas expansion.

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 versus Street expectations of 422,850, with production of 434,358. Full-year deliveries reached 1,636,129. Model 3 and Y beat estimates, while other models lagged. The miss was modest and largely logistical, consistent with the “better than feared” framing rather than a demand shock.

🔋 Energy And Infrastructure Optionality

Energy continues to be a critical counterweight to vehicle cyclicality and a foundational enabler for Tesla’s AI ambitions. Tesla deployed a record 14.2 GWh of energy storage in Q4, up 13.6% quarter over quarter and 29.1% year over year, beating consensus expectations near 13.4 GWh. Full-year energy deployments reached 46.7 GWh versus expectations around 45.9 GWh.

This acceleration matters beyond revenue. Grid-scale storage is the literal infrastructure layer required to support the compute intensity of next-generation autonomy training and inference. A third Megafactory near Houston is slated to come online in late 2026, producing Megapack 3 and Megablock systems with annual capacity of roughly 50 GWh.

Supercharger activity reached 52 million charging sessions in Q4, up 29% year over year, averaging over 565,000 sessions per day. Even non-core ecosystem touchpoints continue to scale, with over 83,000 diner orders in Q4 generating $373k in revenue, reinforcing engagement across the Tesla platform.

🛠️ Manufacturing And Cost Moat

Manufacturing execution remains intact. Model 3 and Y production totalled 422,652 units in Q4 with deliveries of 406,585. Other models added 11,706 produced and 11,642 delivered. The production–delivery spread reflects logistics and timing rather than structural inefficiency. Vertical integration and cost discipline remain central to Tesla’s ability to navigate competitive pricing cycles.

📈 Macro And Cross Asset Context

High-duration equities remain sensitive to liquidity conditions. The recent de-risking fits a broader tightening impulse rather than a regime shift. AI capex, semiconductor demand, and grid infrastructure investment continue to support Tesla’s optionality across autonomy and energy, even as markets demand execution over narrative in 2026.

📊 Valuation And Long Duration Framing

Near-term momentum has softened, and execution risks are being priced more aggressively. That does not negate the long-duration framework built around autonomy, robotics, and energy. Analyst dispersion itself reflects uncertainty around timing, not destination. The market has shifted from story expansion to proof. How Tesla converts platform capability into scaled deployment, particularly around Cybercab in April or May 2026, will define the next valuation phase.

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @TigerPicks @TigerStars @TigerWire @TigerObserver