To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$  🚨📊 Tesla Just Took Control of Wall Street’s Expectations 📊🚨📰

30 Dec 2025 🇺🇸 | 31 Dec 2025 🇳🇿🥳

I’m flagging this because it’s genuinely rare.

🚨📰 NEWS: Tesla has published street delivery estimates themselves, via a company-compiled sell-side consensus released on 29Dec25 through Tesla Investor Relations.

This is not guidance. It’s Tesla aggregating analyst forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Barclays, UBS, Jefferies, Wells Fargo, HSBC, Wedbush, Evercore ISI, and others, and choosing to make that consensus public.

Companies almost never do this.

📊 The published consensus frames Q4 deliveries around ~423k units, with analysts openly bracing for roughly a 15% YoY decline. Expectations are now clearly anchored lower, dispersion is reduced, and the narrative is set.

⏱️ The timing is the tell. This disclosure lands as Tesla confirms it has built its 9 millionth vehicle, while $TSLA prints a new high of the day. That combination signals confidence and expectation control, not caution.

🔋 The underappreciated layer is energy. Storage deployment estimates accelerate sharply beyond 2025, pointing to a margin mix shift that rarely gets priced correctly when delivery debates dominate headlines.

$TSLA Q4 deliveries are expected around ~423k, roughly -15% QoQ, setting up a potential first annual decline as competition, rates, and China headwinds weigh ahead of the 02Jan results.

What’s notable is the options market response. Implied volatility remains elevated relative to realised moves, suggesting traders are paying up for uncertainty that spot price has not yet expressed.

That contrast, anchored expectations, firm structure, and rich IV, fits perfectly with why Tesla chose to publish consensus in the first place.

📈 I’m watching the close closely. A strong finish reinforces that the market is looking through near-term delivery optics and focusing on execution, transparency, and longer-cycle leverage. When management steps into the consensus process, it’s usually because expectations are finally low enough to surprise.

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