To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$  $Northrop Grumman(NOC)$  $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$  21Dec25 ET 🇺🇸 | 22Dec25 NZ 🇳🇿

I’m watching Rocket Lab move through a phase that separates real space companies from stories. Mission success, contract validation, analyst upgrades, and technically confirmed price discovery are now aligning. This is not a single headline move. This is layered execution.

🛰️ Mission Reliability Is Now Compounding

I’m starting with operations because that is where value is earned in this industry. Rocket Lab has now completed its 21st successful Electron mission this year, with Peter Beck confirming 100% mission success for 2025. Reliability compounds quietly until the market is forced to acknowledge it. Even Elon Musk publicly acknowledging Rocket Lab’s execution matters. In aerospace, respect is rarely given early.

📊 Wall Street Is Chasing, Not Leading

I’m noting Stifel raising their price target to $85 from $75 and maintaining a Buy rating. That currently sits as the high on the Street. The timing matters. This upgrade arrives alongside critical design milestones and confirmation that Rocket Lab is no longer operating in a development-only box. Analysts are reacting to execution that has already happened.

🛰️ SDA Tranche 3 Changes The Frame

I’m still seeing Rocket Lab described as a launch-only company. That framing no longer holds. Landing the SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer award, with an estimated total capture value approaching ~$1B, places Rocket Lab alongside the largest defence primes.

Market cap context at the time of the award highlights the disconnect.

Lockheed Martin ~$110B

Northrop Grumman ~$81B

L3Harris ~$54B

Rocket Lab ~$32B

That gap is not about capability. It is about perception catching up to reality.

🧠 Vertical Integration Is The Differentiator

I’m repeating this because it is the core of the thesis. Rocket Lab delivers launch services, spacecraft, satellites, subsystems, software, and on-orbit operations. Payloads, solar solutions, ADCS, avionics, and mission software are all in-house. This is why the opportunity expands beyond the $816M prime contract toward a ~$1B total capture value. Owning the stack means capturing margin and optionality.

📈 Price Action Confirms Fundamentals

I’m watching RKLB print new all-time highs in after-hours trading following the SDA announcement details. Volume expanded into the move and price held despite thinner post-market liquidity. That behaviour aligns with institutional participation, not just retail enthusiasm.

📊 Multi-Timeframe Structure Confirms Momentum

I’m anchoring this move in structure, not headlines.

On the 4H chart, price has broken decisively above the upper Keltner Channel (240) with follow-through. Bollinger Bands are expanding after a prolonged compression phase, signalling a volatility regime shift. EMA 13, EMA 21, and EMA 55 are fully aligned and rising, with price holding above all three on pullbacks. This is trend confirmation.

On the 2H chart, price remains inside its volatility envelope rather than detaching. That suggests early to mid-impulse, not exhaustion. The prior downtrend fully mean-reverted into the lower bands before resolving higher, giving this leg structural integrity.

On the 30-minute chart, price is riding the upper Keltner Channel with shallow pullbacks. Buyers are defending momentum intraday rather than allowing mean reversion. That is continuation behaviour.

Across all three timeframes, the same signals are present.

Volatility expansion after compression.

EMA alignment in trend order.

No rejection at upper bands.

Higher lows holding through pullbacks.

That alignment explains why the move held into post-market rather than fading.

🚀 2026 Execution Catalysts, Sequential Not Speculative

I’m not treating these as isolated headlines. I’m treating them as execution checkpoints that continue to reprice the business as they clear.

• Hungry Hippo arrival at Wallops

This marks the shift from infrastructure build-out to utilisation. Hardware arrival signals a regime change.

• Stage two hot fire

One of the highest-risk technical milestones. Clearing it meaningfully compresses Neutron programme risk.

• Mynaric acquisition integration

This expands optical communications capability and SDA exposure while pulling margin and technology in-house.

• Potential NASA MTO contract

Validation beyond commercial and defence satellites, extending credibility into deep-space mission support.

• Neutron on the pad

The moment the narrative transitions from development to launch readiness.

• Golden Dome exposure

Missile defence and persistent tracking layers continue to expand. Rocket Lab is increasingly positioned inside that spend envelope.

• Flatellite announcement

Smaller, faster-built spacecraft architectures aligned with SDA cadence requirements.

• HASTE cadence acceleration

Improved revenue visibility through higher launch frequency and repeat customers.

Each reinforces the same theme. Rocket Lab is built to keep delivering, not to rely on a single event.

🗺️ Neutron Timeline, The Real One

I’m tracking logistics closely because they precede launches every time.

📅 06 to 10Jan26 | Panama Arrival

The vessel reaches the Pacific side of the Panama Canal. This is the final major logistics checkpoint, with VentoFoils managing trade winds to maintain schedule discipline.

📅 Mid-Jan26 | Panama Canal Transit

An 8 to 12 hour crossing to the Atlantic side. No rerouting. No delays. Hardware remains aligned with Q1 integration timelines.

📅 16 to 18Jan26 | Virginia Arrival

Docking at a major East Coast port followed by ground transport to Wallops Island. Hardware arrives at Launch Complex 3.

📅 Feb to Mar26 | Integration and Wet Dress

Full vehicle mating begins. Static fires, wet dress rehearsals, and end-to-end system simulations. Execution replaces theory.

📅 Q2 26 | Neutron Maiden Launch

~13,000kg to orbit, stage separation, and a barge landing attempt. This is the mission designed to directly challenge the Falcon 9 monopoly in medium-lift launch.

🔭 Final Thought

I’m not surprised by this move. I’m impressed by how cleanly it is unfolding. Rocket Lab keeps executing, the market keeps recalibrating, and the gap between perception and reality keeps narrowing. 2026 is no longer a hope year. It is shaping up as a delivery year.

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