To The Moon

$BABA-W(09988)$

Key News:

• Guosen Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, optimistic about the commercialization prospects of its AI large models in e-commerce, cloud services, and other sectors.

Options Analysis:

• Current Implied Volatility (IV) is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Option volume suggests cautious sentiment with institutional hedging.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: HKD 142–148.

• Next Week (Dec 24): Range may expand slightly to HKD 140–150.

• Key Support: HKD 140–142 – HKD 140 is the maximum Put OI support; HKD 142 is the lower bound this week.

• Key Resistance: HKD 148–150 – HKD 148 is the upper limit this week; HKD 150 is next week's Call resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $ALB.HK 20251224 147.50 CALL$  + Buy $ALB.HK 20251224 150.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Stock oscillating around HKD 145; strong resistance at HKD 147.5; low IV favors sellers.
Stop: Close immediately if stock breaks above HKD 149.

$TENCENT(00700)$

Key News:

• Tencent spent HKD 636 million to repurchase 1.055 million shares (HKD 599.5–605.5).

• Brokers are generally positive; JPMorgan gives an "Overweight" rating with a HKD 750 target.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very steady prices. Overall sentiment neutral, but large sell put blocks suggest institutions see limited downside.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: HKD 600–620.

• Next Week (Dec 24): Range may expand slightly to HKD 590–630.

• Key Support: HKD 600–610 – HKD 600 is next week's "max pain" and core support; HKD 610 is this week's OI concentration zone.

• Key Resistance: HKD 620 – concentrated Call OI creates the main overhead pressure.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $TCH.HK 20251224 610.00 CALL$  + Buy $TCH.HK 20251224 620.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Low IV favors sellers; HKD 610–620 range covers main resistance; net credit of HKD 5.3 provides ~1.8% safety margin.
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 625.

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$

Key News:

• Xiaomi Group spent HKD 150 million on Dec 18 to repurchase 3.75 million shares at HKD 40.12–40.24, showing confidence in supporting the stock price.

• Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating with a HKD 53.5 target, based primarily on the launch of the new open-source model MiMo-V2-Flash, expected to accelerate ecosystem integration.

• Shenwan Hongyuan also maintains a Buy rating, noting Q3 results slightly beat expectations with revenue of RMB 113.1B (expected RMB 112.5B), mainly benefiting from internet services and EV business.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Call trading is more active; sentiment leans bullish.

• This Week (Dec 19): Expected narrow range: HKD 39.5–41.5.

• Next Week (Dec 24): Range may expand slightly to HKD 39–42.

• Key Support: HKD 39.5–40 – HKD 40 is a dense Put OI zone; HKD 39 has additional large block support.

• Key Resistance: HKD 41–41.5 – concentrated Call OI creates the main overhead resistance.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Buy $MIU.HK 20251224 41.00 CALL$  + Sell $MIU.HK 20251224 42.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: Capitalizes on low volatility to collect premium; HKD 41–42 aligns with technical resistance expectations; low IV percentile benefits sellers.
Stop: Close immediately if stock breaks above HKD 42.5; limit max loss to 2x credit received.
(Current price HKD 40.38; strategy applicable but monitor impact of company buybacks on price support.)

$JD-SW(09618)$

Key News:

• Recent JD.com focus: 1) Strong secondary listing performance, with IPO subscription oversubscribed 27 times, raising ~HKD 29.771B; 2) Impressive Singles' Day results, record GMV, order volume up nearly 60%; 3) Participating in HKMA's stablecoin sandbox test via a subsidiary, expanding blockchain business.

Options Analysis:

• Current IV is at historical extremes (low), indicating expectations for very stable prices. Sentiment is slightly bullish.

• This Week (Dec 24): Expected narrow range: HKD 108–118.

• Next Week (Dec 31): Range may expand to HKD 105–122.

• Key Support: HKD 108–110 – HKD 110 is this week's dense Put OI support zone.

• Key Resistance: HKD 115–118 – HKD 115 is this week's concentrated Call resistance; HKD 118 is the range upper limit.

Strategy Idea: Sell Call Spread
Sell $JDC.HK 20251224 115.00 CALL$  + Buy $JDC.HK 20251224 120.00 CALL$ 
Rationale: HKD 115 is key resistance; low IV favors sellers; net credit HKD 0.29, max profit HKD 5.29; clear probability edge (ITM prob. only 14.36%).
Stop: Close if stock breaks above HKD 118 (upper resistance); limit max loss to HKD 4.71.
(Liquidity for Dec 31 contracts is poor in current data; prioritize this week's expiry.)