Bullish on Amazon and PDD, Downside Risk Builds in Google
Since last Thursday, the Nasdaq has fallen for five consecutive trading sessions. The previously crowded AI trade has clearly cooled, weighing on the broader technology sector as the market gradually moves into a phase of profit-taking and risk re-pricing.
Based on option premium flows, V/OI ratios, and structural positioning, institutional activity points to a bullish medium-term view on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
Amazon: Moderately Bullish on AI-Driven Catalyst
Amazon's stock price is around $222. On the news front, markets are focused on reports that Amazon is discussing a potential $10 billion investment in OpenAI, reinforcing its long-term strategic narrative around AI, cloud computing, and compute infrastructure.
In the options market, capital has been deployed via a bull call spread, involving August 2026 260/310 calls, with a combined premium of approximately $48.73 million and a V/OI of 71. This structure clearly expresses a medium-term bullish view while capping upside potential.
From a fundamental perspective, AWS remains a key pillar of Amazon's AI strategy, though investors are maintaining realistic expectations around the pace of AI return monetization. The preference for call spreads over outright long calls suggests that, amid the cooling AI trade, investors are willing to participate in the longer-term upside while remaining disciplined on short-term risk.
Google: Post-Pullback, Short-Term Defensive Signals Strengthen
In contrast, Google's options signals lean more defensive. With shares having retreated to around $300, the options market saw a put trade with approximately $1.42 million in premium, and a V/OI of 107, indicating meaningful new positioning.
The trade was concentrated in January 2026 260 puts, now with just over a month remaining to expiration. Given the low delta, this structure is not positioned for a modest pullback, but rather for amplified gains in the event of further near-term downside.
Notably, in an article published last Thursday, we also highlighted a roughly $40 million sale of GOOGL LEAPS calls, a structure typically interpreted as institutions re-pricing upside at elevated levels and signaling rising short-term valuation sensitivity.
Fundamentally, Google continues to face cyclical advertising pressures, intensifying AI competition, and ongoing regulatory scrutiny. Against the backdrop of a broader Nasdaq and AI-sector pullback, the combination of large call selling and short-dated out-of-the-money put buying suggests that capital is actively positioning for near-term uncertainty and potential downside acceleration.
PDD: Cautious Bullish Positioning Amid Pullback and Sentiment Noise
PDD shares have weakened notably in recent sessions, briefly falling to around $105. Beyond the broader AI-related sell-off, market discussions around platform compliance, subsidy models, and regulatory-related sentiment have also amplified short-term volatility.
In the options market, attention has centered on a bullish call trade with approximately $5.88 million in premium, and a V/OI as high as 208, indicating trading volume far exceeding historical open interest. The trade focused on April 2026 $100 in-the-money calls, a high-delta, stock-replacement-type structure.
From a fundamental standpoint, PDD's core e-commerce business continues to generate resilient cash flows. While its overseas operations face regulatory and competitive uncertainties, there has been no clear fundamental inflection. The choice of long-dated in-the-money calls—rather than high-leverage out-of-the-money options—suggests that investors are maintaining medium-term upside exposure while controlling downside risk, reflecting a cautiously bullish stance during the pullback.
Summary
Overall, against the backdrop of a sustained Nasdaq decline and a cooling AI trade, options flows indicate that institutional investors remain focused on defense and de-risking, with sentiment toward technology stocks under near-term pressure. At the same time, positioning has clearly diverged at the individual stock level:
– AMZN: Event-driven, moderately bullish positioning via call spreads, with disciplined expectations for upside.
– GOOGL: Increased short-term defensive activity, as valuation sensitivity rises and upside momentum appears to slow.
– PDD: Continued inflows into long-dated in-the-money calls, signaling maintained bullish exposure with a medium-term focus.
Overall, options capital appears to be balancing risk control with selective upside participation. For investors, this environment argues for lower short-term rebound expectations, avoidance of chasing rallies, and a more defensive, selective approach, while maintaining disciplined position sizing and leverage until a clearer trend emerges.
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