To The Moon

In the past five days, $Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV(PAC)$ 's share price has risen by 14.53%.

US stocks turned sharply lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading the way lower amid a broader rotation from tech to value names.

The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.6%, continuing a tech slump. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dropped roughly 1%, one day after surging above the 6,900 level for the first time. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ , which includes fewer tech stocks, slipped 0.5%.

The best-performing concepts is Airport Services Concept. Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV(PAC)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

In the past five days, $Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV(PAC)$ 's share price has risen by 14.53%.

$Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV(PAC)$

PAC is a holding company. The Company holds concessions to operate, maintain and develop approximately 10 international airports in the Pacific and Central regions of Mexico, and an international airport in Jamaica. The Company's segments include Guadalajara, Tijuana, Puerto Vallarta, San Jose del Cabo, Montego Bay, Hermosillo, Bajio, Other Airports and Others Companies.

Q3 2025 Results

In Q3 2025, the total passengers' traffic grew 2.5% YoY, reaching 15.7 million. It was a modest breakthrough, yet relevant in a context where the migratory restrictions in the US, and the problems with Pratt & Whitney engines, limited many airlines' capacity.

What's interesting is how PAC compensated that lowered international traffic. It did so with new routes, more frequencies and a domestic demand that still remains firm. The total revenue grew 16.3% YoY to MX$9.576MM, boosted by both the aeronautic segment (+18.3%) and the non-aeronautic one.

Within this last one, the strongest growth came from the businesses operated directly by PAC, which grew 30.1%, boosted by the charge area and fiscal deposits (an additional MX$559 MM) and new commercial concessions.

The EBITDA reached MX$5.086MM (+12.8% YoY), with a margin of 64.3% (excluding IFRIC-12). The slight decrease in contrast to 2024 reflects the growth of the concession right (from 5% to 9%) and the internalization of services like gangways and transport. These are structural costs, but also signals of a more integrated and sustainable model, on the long term.

The net income was of MX$2.696MM (+36% YoY) and the liquidity remained solid, with MX$11.7B in cash as of September 30. Throughout the quarter PAC completed the second dividends share for MX$8.42 by action and emitted MX$8.5B in bonuses to finance master plan projects and refinance the bank debt. The accumulated CapEx in 9M 2025 was of MX$7B, focused on terminal widening and improvements in aerial platforms.

Valuation, growth and profitability

Despite being one of the most the region's most efficient assets, the market still ranks it with moderation. Nowadays, it trades at 18.2x P/E FWD and 11.0x EV/EBITDA FWD, below both the sectorial average (23.2x and 12.3x, respectively) and its own average over the past five years. That difference doesn't reflect weakness, but wariness: the market acknowledges its maturity, but it still appears to not have ruled out its capacity to sustain world-class margins.

The EBITDA margin remains at 60.9%, more than 327% above the industry's average, while the net income margin reaches 28.9%, nearly four times higher than the sectorial median. ROE, on the other hand, reaches 48%, against the sector's 12.3%.

In the last year, the income grew 35.5% YoY, EBITDA grew 19.3% and the diluted EPS advanced 13.3%, numbers that double or triple the industrial averages. Even though the percentages moderate against the average in the past five years, that deacceleration takes place on a much higher basis. PAC no longer grows only through traffic expansion, but through efficiency, a mixture of income and profit of maximum fees.

To that is added a balanced dividend policy. The dividend yield rounds 4.1%, highly uncovered by operative flow, and surpasses the sector's median in nearly 190%. It doesn't rely on debt to sustain it, nor it compromises investment to maintain it.

That's why PAC's value is still sustained in its structure. It trades with discount against the sector, but with an operative differential that explains why I consider it one of the few mature infrastructure assets that can still grow without losing quality.

Comparison with peers

On comparing it with $Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte SAB de CV(OMAB)$ and $Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV(ASR)$ that idea of balance is reinforced. PAC operates with an EV/EBITDA FWD of 11.0x against OMAB's 9.6x and ASR's 8.5x. Its P/E FWD remains at 18.2x, slightly above the 15.2x and 14.1x of its peers. In margins, that difference is not so lower: the PAC's EBITDA margin rounds 50.7%, inferior to OMAB's 61.7% and ASR's 57.9%, an understandable gap from the higher concession right and the costs internalization that were before outsourced.

What appeared more relevant to me was its operative profile. PAC administrates 14 airports between Mexico and Jamaica, with a combination of touristic, corporative and international connection destinations that reduce the traffic's volatility. OMAB is more domestic and ASR more touristic; PAC, on the other hand, distributes its exposition in a balanced manner. That diversification is reflected also on its dividend yield of 4.1%, against OMAB's 3.6% and ASR's 2.8%.

In conclusion, PAC trades with a moderate boost in contrast to its peers, but a prime that the market pays for stability. It's neither the cheapest nor the most explosive, but indeed the most predictable. And in a context where the regulatory risk and the financial cost weigh increasingly more that predictability becomes its main competitive advantage. PAC transmits to me something that few companies manage to in this sector: the feeling that its maturity doesn't limit it, it protects it.

Risks

The main risk is still the Mexican regulatory environment, where changes in fees or concessions could affect margins. There is also some sort of dependence on international traffic, especially in Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and Tijuana, sensitive to the USA's migratory politic.

On the other hand, the high investment cycle could pressure the free flow on the short term, though the solid liquidity and the recent debt emissions give it margin to sustain the expansion plan without compromising its financial stability.

Conclusion

At this point, PAC doesn't need to reinvent itself. What it offers is consistency, predictability and real profitability. In an environment where many seek growth at any price, PAC shows that maturity can also be a competitive advantage.

For all this, my position on PAC is held respecting the previous analysis as Buy. Not for expectancy, but for evidence: PAC still remains one of the region's few companies that manages to turn stability into value.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

According to projections from 7 analysts, the average 12-month price target for PAC GAP ADR is 246.57143, with a high estimate of 273 and a low estimate of 215.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839924-grupo-aeroportuario-del-pacifico-q3-confirms-quality-yield-stability

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