$POP MART(09992)$ For: Pop Mar-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

40
2
Favorite

KohKohKrunch
12-15 09:55

$POP MART(09992)$

For: Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?

Title: Pop Mart: When the "Collectible" Narrative Loses Its Magic

Pop Mart's ~40% crash from August highs is more than a Morgan Stanley downgrade—it's a fundamental challenge to its growth story. The core issue is whether IP-driven collectibles have a durable, expanding addressable market, or if it's a saturated fashion trend.

Morgan Stanley's Downgrade (30% → 18% growth) is significant because it questions:

· Repeat Purchase Rate: Can adult collectors maintain spending through economic cycles?

· IP Longevity: Are characters like Molly having lasting power, or are they fading?

· International Expansion: Can it truly replicate its China success abroad against different cultures and competitors?

HK$180 Target?

Technically, it's in range. The stock broke key support levels and sentiment is shattered. The valuation (P/E) is compressing from a "high-growth" to a "mature consumer" multiple. Until there's clear evidence of renewed user growth or a blockbuster new IP line, the trend is downward. This is a classic "don't catch a falling knife" situation until fundamentals stabilize.

Vote: Agree with the cautious outlook. The risk is to the downside until new catalysts emerge.

# Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

40

Report

Comment（2）

Top
Latest

LeeTed
·12-15 15:54
Agreed. The IP fatigue is real [吃瓜] When Molly starts looking stale, better short the knife.
Reply
1
Report
LeonaClemens
·12-15 15:54
Agreed. Charts look bearish, no bottom signals yet. [看跌]
Reply
Like
Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":510976443204056,"tweetId":"510976443204056","gmtCreate":1765763730610,"gmtModify":1765784883603,"author":{"id":4117163421999332,"idStr":"4117163421999332","authorId":4117163421999332,"authorIdStr":"4117163421999332","name":"KohKohKrunch","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc4f5e8fe83c3f095c7d317739004846","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.03","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"acc3659630ed4cdf82ea6518efafc42d","categoryId":"7cf744760f454845a1870a05ea4e151d","name":"Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":acc3659630ed4cdf82ea6518efafc42d}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"Pop Mart opened with a sharp drop and continued to decline, falling nearly 8.5% yesterday, marking its largest single-day drop in over six weeks. Today, the stock continues to slide another 5%, representing a roughly 40% decline from its August highs and wiping out over HKD 180 billion in market value.\nIn its 2025 Consumer Industry Outlook report, Morgan Stanley downgraded Pop Mart’s projected 2026 revenue growth from 30% to 18%.\n--------\nDo you agree with Morgan Stanley's report?\nIs $180 the next target?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/355a97757c45f221830159908fd620d7"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09992\">$POP MART(09992)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<p>For: Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?</p>\n<p>Title: Pop Mart: When the \"Collectible\" Narrative Loses Its Magic</p>\n<p>Pop Mart's ~40% crash from August highs is more than a Morgan Stanley downgrade—it's a fundamental challenge to its growth story. The core issue is whether IP-driven collectibles have a durable, expanding addressable market, or if it's a saturated fashion trend.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley's Downgrade (30% → 18% growth) is significant because it questions:</p>\n<p>· Repeat Purchase Rate: Can adult collectors maintain spending through economic cycles?</p>\n<p>· IP Longevity: Are characters like Molly having lasting power, or are they fading?</p>\n<p>· International Expansion: Can it truly replicate its China success abroad against different cultures and competitors?</p>\n<p>HK$180 Target?</p>\n<p>Technically, it's in range. The stock broke key support levels and sentiment is shattered. The valuation (P/E) is compressing from a \"high-growth\" to a \"mature consumer\" multiple. Until there's clear evidence of renewed user growth or a blockbuster new IP line, the trend is downward. This is a classic \"don't catch a falling knife\" situation until fundamentals stabilize.</p>\n<p>Vote: Agree with the cautious outlook. The risk is to the downside until new catalysts emerge.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09992\">$POP MART(09992)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;\n<p>For: Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180?</p>\n<p>Title: Pop Mart: When the \"Collectible\" Narrative Loses Its Magic</p>\n<p>Pop Mart's ~40% crash from August highs is more than a Morgan Stanley downgrade—it's a fundamental challenge to its growth story. The core issue is whether IP-driven collectibles have a durable, expanding addressable market, or if it's a saturated fashion trend.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley's Downgrade (30% → 18% growth) is significant because it questions:</p>\n<p>· Repeat Purchase Rate: Can adult collectors maintain spending through economic cycles?</p>\n<p>· IP Longevity: Are characters like Molly having lasting power, or are they fading?</p>\n<p>· International Expansion: Can it truly replicate its China success abroad against different cultures and competitors?</p>\n<p>HK$180 Target?</p>\n<p>Technically, it's in range. The stock broke key support levels and sentiment is shattered. The valuation (P/E) is compressing from a \"high-growth\" to a \"mature consumer\" multiple. Until there's clear evidence of renewed user growth or a blockbuster new IP line, the trend is downward. This is a classic \"don't catch a falling knife\" situation until fundamentals stabilize.</p>\n<p>Vote: Agree with the cautious outlook. The risk is to the downside until new catalysts emerge.</p></body></html>","text":"$POP MART(09992)$ For: Pop Mart Flash Crash: Shorts Go Crazy! See HK$180? Title: Pop Mart: When the \"Collectible\" Narrative Loses Its Magic Pop Mart's ~40% crash from August highs is more than a Morgan Stanley downgrade—it's a fundamental challenge to its growth story. The core issue is whether IP-driven collectibles have a durable, expanding addressable market, or if it's a saturated fashion trend. Morgan Stanley's Downgrade (30% → 18% growth) is significant because it questions: · Repeat Purchase Rate: Can adult collectors maintain spending through economic cycles? · IP Longevity: Are characters like Molly having lasting power, or are they fading? · International Expansion: Can it truly replicate its China success abroad against different cultures and competitors? HK$180 Target? Technically, it's in range. The stock broke key support levels and sentiment is shattered. The valuation (P/E) is compressing from a \"high-growth\" to a \"mature consumer\" multiple. Until there's clear evidence of renewed user growth or a blockbuster new IP line, the trend is downward. This is a classic \"don't catch a falling knife\" situation until fundamentals stabilize. Vote: Agree with the cautious outlook. The risk is to the downside until new catalysts emerge.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":40,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/510976443204056","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["09992"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1067,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":511064341451480,"commentId":"511064341451480","gmtCreate":1765785275140,"gmtModify":1765786444008,"authorId":9000000000000514,"author":{"id":9000000000000514,"idStr":"9000000000000514","authorId":9000000000000514,"name":"LeeTed","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb59fd0b17adb82f693717ea8bf6128","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":510976443204056,"objectIdStr":"510976443204056","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Agreed. The IP fatigue is real [吃瓜] When Molly starts looking stale, better short the knife.","text":"Agreed. The IP fatigue is real [吃瓜] When Molly starts looking stale, better short the knife.","html":"Agreed. The IP fatigue is real [吃瓜] When Molly starts looking stale, better short the knife.","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":511064269373776,"commentId":"511064269373776","gmtCreate":1765785263004,"gmtModify":1765819917412,"authorId":9000000000000509,"author":{"id":9000000000000509,"idStr":"9000000000000509","authorId":9000000000000509,"name":"LeonaClemens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ebd4cda9e17932ffd422783f57c1fb0","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":510976443204056,"objectIdStr":"510976443204056","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Agreed. Charts look bearish, no bottom signals yet. [看跌]","text":"Agreed. Charts look bearish, no bottom signals yet. [看跌]","html":"Agreed. Charts look bearish, no bottom signals yet. [看跌]","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}