Chip Industry Sentiment Data on TSMC, Intel, and Micron: Is a Turning Point Near?
Semiconductor manufacturers' CapEx: Structural change may emerge in 2026
Global CapEx by top IDMs (integrated device manufacturers) and foundries from 2019 to 2026 is likely to show a pronounced divergence.
Based on TechInsights forecasts and the 2019–2026 Global Top IDM & Foundry CapEx Spenders dataset (in billions of US dollars), $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$
Samsung's CapEx is forecast at $30.47 billion in 2025, down from $33.85 billion in 2024. $Intel(INTC)$
Performance by chip type diverges: Memory and logic expand their share, while analog stalls
Quarterly bar charts for analog, logic (including CPUs, GPUs, etc.), and memory chip sales from Q1 2018 to Q3 2026 (including forecasts) show marked differences among the three categories: memory and logic sales continue to expand, with their shares rising year by year; analog chip sales have largely stagnated. Forecasts for analog from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 still show no clear growth inflection, reflecting weak demand in the analog market. Representative companies in analog include $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ , $Analog Devices (ADI.US)$, $INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG (IFNNF.US)$ , and $STMicroelectronics (STM.US)$.
End-demand structure: Servers are the main growth driver; PC and tablet sales remain weak
Shipment volumes (in millions) and YoY/QoQ growth rates for PCs, tablets, smartphones, and servers from Q1 2024 to Q3 2025 (including forecasts) indicate a “one strong, many weak” pattern in end demand. Server shipments were only 3.15 million in Q1 2024 but then recovered quarter by quarter, becoming the primary incremental driver for tech manufacturing. PC and tablet sales remain soft: PC YoY growth in Q2 2025 is just 2.71%, and tablet shipments in Q2 2025 are up only 1.21% YoY. By contrast, servers' YoY growth in Q2 remains solidly in double digits.
Capacity utilization and inventories: Utilization is recovering; inventory trends diverge
Capacity utilization data for fabs of different wafer sizes (300 mm, 200 mm, <200 mm) from January 2024 to November 2025 (including forecasts) show utilization still at elevated levels. Utilization for 300 mm wafer capacity was 69.8% in January 2024 and exceeded 80% by May 2025.
As for inventories, memory chip stock is at low levels, while non-memory inventories are gradually rising—suggesting relatively robust demand for memory and inventory pressure for non-memory.
Equipment market highlight: Test equipment leads growth
By equipment type, as of Q2 2025, test equipment's YoY growth exceeds 50%, making it the main growth driver in the tech equipment market and reflecting strong benefits from the rise of AI. In contrast, assembly companies' YoY growth is below 10%.
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