To The Moon

Space is one of my favorite 2026 themes because the real customer base is moving from commercial buyers to fully funded government programs that view this theme as national security infrastructure. It's a once in a lifetime thematic that sits inside budgets that renew every year and grow when geopolitical pressure rises. Once you understand that shift, the companies positioned for federal procurement start to separate from the rest of the sector.

1. $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ | Rocket Lab

Rocket Lab already understands this shift because they stopped presenting themselves as a launch company years ago. Every decision they have made points toward a world where fully integrated space company with vertical control across manufacturing, payload, connectivity and software will dominate federal procurement. They’ve quietly built one of the most comprehensive space infrastructure stacks in the world:

• Launch (Electron, Neutron)

• Satellite components (solar arrays, reaction wheels, propulsion)

• Constellation integration (LEO networks, DoD payloads)

• Optical communications (Mynaric terminals for secure inter-satellite links)

• End-to-end mission services

Rocket Lab is positioning itself as a strategic supplier rather than a vendor, which is why their backlog is becoming more and more government-weighted and why Neutron’s timeline matters far less than the fact that they will eventually offer a medium-lift platform with in-house avionics, on-orbit servicing capabilities and closed-loop production. This is a company that is quietly morphing into the most credible vertically integrated space prime outside of SpaceX. If Electron + Photon + HASTE + Neutron all stack the way they’re trending then this can compound into a $100B business over time.

2. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ | AST SpaceMobile

AST is building the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to unmodified smartphones. Every major telecom has spent decades pouring billions into towers, fiber and spectrum and yet half the world still lives with patchy or nonexistent service. AST cuts around that model altogether by launching satellites with massive phased-array antennas that act like orbiting cell towers that delivers broadband straight to the device in your pocket. No dishes. No satellite phones. No new hardware at all.

This is a network-effects business already embedded in $T and $VZ roadmap with those carriers not just signing wholesale agreements but investing directly into the business. That creates an alignment where MNOs don’t want their biggest fixed broadband competitor running away with mobile subs through a D2C Starlink app. They want a neutral wholesale partner who extends their coverage map and ARPU. Starlink might have $TMUS on paper but the question is whether T-Mobile stays aligned once SpaceX starts layering broadband onto spectrum that requires chipset refreshes and regulatory approval cycles that take years to commercialize. The next phase is about scale which comes from locking in carrier distribution, launching the satellite grid at pace and monetizing spectrum economics across billions of endpoints.

3. $Redwire Corp.(RDW)$ | Redwire

Redwire talks like a future space prime but executes like a contractor still trying to find its footing in the space economy. The company sits in undeniably attractive markets like microgravity manufacturing, space structures and in-space servicing but there remains a disconnect between the scale of the narrative and the consistency of the results. The Q2 earnings collapse was an absolute mess since you don't withdraw full-year EBITDA guidance five months before year-end and pretend it was a late-breaking development. The fact that management did not preannounce, and continued promoting the SpaceMD commercialization roadmap days before releasing one of the worst quarters in the company’s history, is the governance red flag I cannot discount in a speculative industry like space.

Redwire has the right assets to play a meaningful role in on-orbit infrastructure, especially as DoD and commercial players begin outsourcing more fabrication to space-based facilities. What it lacks is the predictable execution rhythm that would allow me to treat it like a scaled aerospace supplier rather than an aspirational engineering shop.

4. $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ | Planet Labs

Planet Labs sits in a more nuanced place. sinc their transitioning from being “the company that takes pictures of Earth” into a geospatial intelligence vendor that sells decision-grade insights to governments, insurers, agriculture networks and defense partners. Defense ministries want persistent ISR at a fraction of the cost of legacy systems. Climate and agricultural models need continuous ground truth data and these are workflows positioning Planet Labs rather than beside them.

My biggest hesitation is still the fundamentals. Revenue is growing and gross margins are moving in the right direction but the company has not shown the operating leverage that would force the market to re-rate it as a true scaled data platform. The push into Europe through new defense partnerships is important because it confirms that Planet’s datasets carry sovereign-grade value but the real test is whether those initial wins turn into multi-year renewals with steadily rising ACV instead of one-off deal spikes.

5. $Firefly Aerospace Inc.(FLY)$ | Firefly Aerospace

Firefly sits in one of the most interesting positions in the space economy since they're pushing launch, landers, orbital vehicles and rapid-response defense capabilities at the same time. That ambition has real value because the DoD wants partners who can support missions from lift to lunar to ISR but the challenge is that Firefly has not yet shown the steady execution that turns that ambition into something actually scalable.

Alpha still needs stable cadence. Blue Ghost depends on milestone-based NASA payments that only materialize as hardware clears development risk. The rapid-launch business is great but it eats capital and requires manufacturing discipline the company has not yet demonstrated consistently. Firefly has the credibility on the engineering side but what they have not proven is the economic engine that allows this to scale without repeated resets. That does not make them a “bad” company. It just puts them in the bucket of names where the potential is enormous but the burden of proof is higher.

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