To The Moon

$SPY$
Key News:

• BofA Research indicates limited upside for the S&P 500 in 2026, with a year-end target of 7100, below recent strong performance.

• Analyst Savita Subramanian notes that 14% earnings growth in 2026 could be offset by a 10% P/E compression. Tech faces an “air pocket” risk, with power supply remaining a key bottleneck.

• Market leadership is expected to rotate from Technology to Financials, Real Estate, Materials, Healthcare, and Energy sectors.

Options Analysis:

• Current SPY price: $683.89. Implied Volatility (IV): 17.40% (39.60th percentile), indicating relatively moderate market expectations.

• Call/Put Ratio: 0.91, showing a slight bearish tilt.

• This Week (Dec 5 Expiry): Expected range: $675–690. The 680 Put (OI 26,467) is key support; 685 Call (OI 41,158) is resistance.

• Next Week (Dec 12 Expiry): Expected range: $670–695. The 675 Put (OI 25,009) provides support; 690 Call (OI 4,860) forms resistance.

• Block trades: Dec 19 674 Put (2,682 lots) and 671 Put (1,739 lots) bought, indicating institutional put protection in the 670–675 zone.

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (Dec 12 Expiry)

• Sell $SPY 20251212 675.0 PUT$  @ 0.14

• Buy $SPY 20251212 670.0 PUT$  @ 0.05

• Sell $SPY 20251212 690.0 CALL$  @ 0.07

• Buy $SPY 20251212 695.0 CALL$  @ 0.04

• Net Credit: $0.12 per share ($12 per contract)

• Profit Range: $675.12 – $689.88

• Stop: Close if price breaks $673 or $692; max loss limited to 2x credit.

*Rationale: Based on SPY consolidating in the 665–695 range; collects time value with elevated IV. Suitable for low-risk-preference investors.*

$QQQ$
Key News:

• QQQ shows steady performance, up 0.24% to $623.52 on Dec 3, maintaining a gradual uptrend.

• Semiconductors lead gains, driven by analog chips and Intel. Bitcoin rebounds 6%, reclaiming $90k.

Options Analysis:

• Current price: $623.52. IV: 22.28% (46th percentile), suggesting moderate expected volatility.

• Call/Put Ratio: 0.98, reflecting balanced sentiment.

• This Week (Dec 5): Expected range: $610–635. IV around 20–25%.

• Next Week (Dec 12): Expected range: $600–640; longer time value extends range.

• Support: $620 (heavy Put OI)

• Resistance: $630 (Call OI cluster)

• Max Pain: $625

• Put OI concentrations: 620 (33,431), 618 (26,532)

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor

• Sell $QQQ 20251212 610.0 PUT$  (~$1.45)

• Sell $QQQ 20251212 625.0 CALL$  (~$1.22)

• Buy $QQQ 20251212 605.0 PUT$  (~$0.85)

• Buy $QQQ 20251212 630.0 CALL$  (~$0.12)

• Net Credit: ~$1.70 per share

• Profit Range: $608.30 – $626.70

• Stop: Close if price breaks $605 or $630; max loss ~$3.30.

Rationale: Capitalizes on the 610–625 consolidation range; moderate IV favors sellers with clear probability edge. Controlled risk fits current environment.

$IWM$
Key News:

• Trump names Hassett as a potential Fed Chair candidate, raising expectations for a dovish policy shift.

• IWM, as a small-cap ETF, benefits from lower financing costs and improved risk appetite, strengthening allocation preferences.

• Tech and small caps find support from falling discount rates and recovering earnings expectations.

Options Analysis:

• Current price: $249.63. IV: 23.37% (22.8th percentile), indicating low expected volatility.

• Call/Put Ratio: 0.59, showing slight bearish bias.

• This Week: Expected range: $245–255. Support at 245 (OI cluster); resistance at 252.77 (YTD high).

• Next Week: Expected range: $242–258. IV ~23%, time value widens range.

• Key levels: 246 Put OI 3,494; 250 Call OI 3,641, showing clear对峙.

Strategy Idea: Iron Condor (Dec 12 Expiry)

• Sell $IWM 20251212 240.0 PUT$  (~0.02)

• Buy $IWM 20251212 235.0 PUT$  (~0.01)

• Sell $IWM 20251212 255.0 CALL$  (~0.02)

• Buy $IWM 20251212 260.0 CALL$  (~0.01)

• Net Credit: ~0.02 per share ($200 per contract)

• Profit Range: $240 – $255

• Stop: Close if price breaks $238 or $257.

*Rationale: Low IV favors selling volatility. The 240–255 range covers ~72% probability; risk/reward is reasonable.*