To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Intel(INTC)$ 

📊 My Daily Structure And Technical Read

I am coming into today with $TSLA fading off a new high of the week at $433.50, almost perfectly matching Monday’s pre market high at $433.66. Price has slipped back toward the HVL and HVL OTE band, which is the current battle zone. The 15 minute chart shows that spike into the $430 to $433 region being sold into, and the 30 minute and 4H views confirm that we are still oscillating inside the same six session liquidity corridor.

The Keltner and Bollinger structure on the 4H chart remains intact. Candles are riding the upper pink envelope, but every push into the outer band is triggering inventory clearing rather than a true trend break. The 13 and 21 EMAs are still rising, with price now testing the short term mean. The 55 EMA on the 4H is holding well below and acts as the structural line in the sand for this advance.

MacD on the 4H has flattened and is starting to curl, which tells me internal energy is coiling rather than exhausted. RSI sits around neutral across timeframes and continues to respect its band top on the 4H, which is classic compression behaviour. I see a market that is digesting gains at the top of a local channel rather than failing.

From the options lens, open interest remains tight at roughly 3.96M calls versus 3.43M puts with positive GEX, although that positive GEX is evolving as calls are unwound. More than $40M in single leg calls have been sold today and price is now down over $6, about 1.5% intraday. The net drift chart shows call premium bleeding lower while put premium grinds higher, with the underlying sliding from around $432 to the low $420s. That is a controlled downside skew, not a panic flush.

The $430 strike is still the key gamma node, with around 15,000 calls sitting there. As long as price cannot hold above $430 for more than a quick wick, those calls act like a ceiling. If we reclaim and sustain above that level, dealers will be forced to rebalance hedges which can fuel a true gamma squeeze.

Technically my map is simple. The HVL band around the low $420s is the first support zone. Below that there is a liquidity pocket into $410 where prior volume built. Above, the $430 gamma wall and the recent highs around $433.50 set the near term resistance shelf. Relative strength versus the indices has paused after outperforming on the bounce, but I am not seeing decisive weakness, only consolidation at high velocity levels.

🔍 My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage

Autonomy is doing the heavy lifting as valuation debates heat up. FSD v14.2 is now rolling out with the 2025.39.6 build, bringing 36 Hz full resolution AI4 inputs. Real world user reports on X are showing zero intervention drives of more than 1,100 miles, roughly 80% highway and 20% city, plus flawless parking in crowded European lots. That is exactly the sort of step change that converts sceptics and feeds the training loop.

Tesla has also launched a timed FSD (Supervised) trial that runs through 08Jan26 and specifically targets holiday travel. That campaign should materially boost FSD exposure, data capture, and subscription conversion, all while many competitors are still arguing about Level 3 feature packaging.

At the same time, regulatory scrutiny is real. United States agencies are probing v14.2 edge cases, including occasional traffic signal and junction handling errors, and Europe remains constrained under UNECE Regulation 171, which is delaying a full FSD launch there. That is why I treat the Vienna Autopilot Vehicle Operator hiring as groundwork rather than a guarantee. Tesla is clearly preparing the data infrastructure for Europe, but the regulatory clock is slower than the engineering clock.

This is where the geographic mix matters. November data show Tesla registrations falling 58% in France and 49% in Denmark as subsidies roll off and Chinese competitors, particularly BYD, step up. That is a genuine headwind. However China is moving in the opposite direction, with Q4 pointing to rare year on year growth and full year 2025 deliveries projected around 1.66M vehicles, heavily driven by Model Y demand. That volume, combined with Tesla’s vertical control of batteries, software, and manufacturing, supports the long term cost curve.

I also want to add fresh context around autonomy because the data this week has been exceptional. FSD v14.2 with the 2025.39.6 build is now running full resolution AI4 inputs at 36 Hz, and real world user drives are logging more than 1,100 miles with zero interventions, about 80% highway and 20% city. Tesla has timed a holiday FSD (Supervised) trial that runs through 08Jan26, which I see as a deliberate move to accelerate adoption and data capture. Europe remains held back by UNECE Reg 171, although the Vienna Operator hiring signals Tesla is building the data layer ahead of approval. At the factory level, early Optimus Gen 2 deployments are showing around 20% efficiency gains, which could trim another 10 to 15% from build costs by 2026. China continues to provide the volume backbone with strong Q4 momentum while Europe digests subsidy cuts, and that geographic balance matters for the long term cash flow story.

On cost, the over its life comparison where the Model Y total cost of ownership, including purchase price, sits at roughly 63% of a BMW X3 remains critical. When I plug in the efficiency gains coming from Optimus Gen 2 factory deployments, where early tests show around 20% productivity improvements with shared neural nets, that TCO advantage can expand further. If Tesla trims another 10 to 15% from build costs by 2026, the gap versus legacy premium SUVs widens to something close to structural.

Musk’s recent appearance with Nikhil Kamath also matters for the AI side of the story. His focus on truth, beauty, and curiosity as design anchors for AI lines up with xAI’s philosophy and with FSD’s target to minimise hallucinations in safety critical contexts. When he warns that automakers who refuse to adopt effective autonomy risk disruption and hints that they may end up renting Tesla’s brain, he is telegraphing a world where FSD licences become a high margin software layer for those who cannot keep up.

Tesla’s new Powerwall 3 rebate programme is one of the most strategically important energy catalysts I am tracking right now. Orders placed between 01Jan and 31Mar and installations completed between 01Jan and 31May unlock significant cash back that strengthens near term demand and reinforces long horizon margins. The incentives reach up to €900 across 🇩🇪 Germany, 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇪🇸 Spain, 🇵🇹 Portugal, 🇲🇹 Malta, 🇫🇷 France, 🇳🇱 Netherlands and 🇮🇪 Ireland, with up to £750 in the 🇬🇧 United Kingdom and up to R17,200 in 🇿🇦 South Africa. I view this as a clear signal that Tesla is tightening the energy ecosystem flywheel at the exact moment autonomy is accelerating. Powerwall 3 becomes the anchor product that locks households into Tesla’s energy software stack while expanding the company’s global recurring revenue footprint.

📰 🔄 Options positioning, flow dynamics and gamma structure

On the flow side I still see dark pool activity as steady and constructive rather than aggressive. Off exchange prints around the recent highs and the HVL band show institutions absorbing supply rather than distributing inventory. The slide from the $430 region toward the low $420s has not been accompanied by abnormal dark pool selling which tells me this is repricing rather than structural weakness. I am also tracking out of the money $500 call sweeps for the 19Dec25 expiry which signal that larger accounts are still willing to pay for long dated upside exposure while the valuation debate and Burry’s commentary dominate headlines. Call premium continues to be harvested and volatility is being repriced higher, but the combination of dark pool absorption, upside call flows and consistent buying interest at the lower Keltner levels suggests institutions are reshaping exposure rather than exiting the name.

📉 Macro cross currents and valuation pressure

I am treating the current macro environment as a genuine set of cross currents for $TSLA. Europe’s November registration slump has been sharp, with France down 58% and Denmark down 49% as subsidy roll offs and intensified competition reshape the market. At the same time regulatory credit revenue is projected to fall about 40% to roughly $1.5B in 2025 which tightens the earnings profile while valuation remains elevated at around 209 times forward earnings compared with its five year average near 94 and the S&P 500 near 22. The counterweight is China where Q4 continues to show rare year on year strength and full year 2025 deliveries are projected to reach around 1.66M units supported heavily by Model Y demand. This geographic divergence is why I see the current period as a high tension equilibrium that requires flexibility rather than a simple directional stance.

🎯 My Trend Map And What I Am Watching Next

My forward map combines the technical structure, the autonomy cadence, and the macro cross currents.

• Reclaim and sustain above $430

This is the immediate trigger. If price can hold above the $430 strike for more than a brief wick, market makers will need to buy stock into strength to hedge those 15,000 calls. That opens the door to a controlled gamma squeeze and a retest of the recent high band.

• Defend the HVL and HVL OTE zone around the low $420s

Holding this shelf keeps the current consolidation regime intact. Lose it with volume, and the next liquidity pocket opens into the $410 region where prior demand sits.

• Watch the 4H MacD curl and RSI band behaviour

If MacD turns higher while RSI continues to respect its neutral band, that is a classic sign of a new impulse building out of a controlled pullback. Failure there, combined with a break below the 21 EMA, would confirm that this leg needs a deeper reset.

• Balance Europe weakness against China strength

I am tracking whether the sharp drop in European registrations is an extended trend or an air pocket. If China continues to grow and FSD v14.2 adoption accelerates, Tesla can lean more heavily into autonomy and energy to offset the loss of regulatory credits and European subsidies.

• Integrate Burry and valuation pressure with the autonomy flywheel

The market is debating a 3.6% yearly dilution rate, an outsized pay package, and a very high multiple at the same time that autonomy metrics and AI narratives are improving. If Tesla keeps compounding FSD data, deploying Optimus in factories, and expanding its Powerwall 3 rebates across Europe, the long term cash flow profile can move faster than most bear cases assume. If those developments stall, valuation compression risks increase.

For now I see $TSLA in a high tension equilibrium. Options markets are repricing risk, dark pools are quietly absorbing, autonomy metrics are improving, Europe is wobbling, and China is holding up. That combination usually produces sharp moves once the next catalyst arrives, whether from a regulatory decision on FSD, a major autonomy update, or a shift in macro risk appetite.

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