To The Moon

$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 🔻 Down movers I’m noting that equities kicked off December with a clear risk off tone as crypto volatility transmitted straight into high beta growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 427 points to 47,289.33, down 0.90%, snapping a 5 day advance. The S&P 500 fell 0.53% to 6,812.63 and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.38% to 23,275.92 as a 6% slide in $BTC below 86,000 triggered correlated selling in tech and other growth proxies. I’m tracking the Russell 2000 as the weak link, down 1.25% to 2,469.13, which reflects thin liquidity pockets and dispersion in leadership. Systematic deleveraging showed up in micro structure with dark pool volumes in tech up roughly 15% and downside volume controlling more than 60% of turnover on both exchanges. S&P 500 just printed its lowest trading volume since January 2025. I’m treating that as a classic exhaustion signal in a tape that’s already reset positioning, volatility, and breadth. Low volume at this stage of the cycle usually marks indecision rather than structural weakness, and it often precedes a sharp liquidity inflection once catalysts start hitting the tape. 🔺 Up movers I’m watching pockets of resilience across retail cyclicals and AI infrastructure where rotation, not rejection, dominated. Nvidia $NVDA stabilised despite sector pressure, signalling internal dispersion rather than a full breakdown. I’m noting that new highs still exceeded lows on both exchanges which historically tempers drawdown persistence when pullbacks stay below 5%. Retail held in far better than growth, supported by Cyber Monday online spend that is tracking about $14.2B, up 9% YoY. Healthcare and utilities finished modestly higher near +0.3%, confirming early defensive interest rather than outright capitulation. 🎯 Special catalysts I’m focused on historical seasonality and liquidity as twin anchors for December. History says the Santa Claus setup is on the bulls’ side: • $DJI finishes higher in 70.3% of Decembers since 1897 • $SPX finishes higher in 72.2% of Decembers since 1928 • $RUT finishes higher in 78.9% of Decembers since 1987 Average December returns sit around 1.6% for the Dow, 1.5% for the S&P 500, and 1.8% for the Russell 2000. The classic Santa Claus rally in the final 5 sessions has averaged roughly 1.3%, and I’m treating the current de risk move as a potential volatility reset into that window. I’m tracking the macro overlay because the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening programme just ceased, which effectively stabilises the balance sheet and could free up roughly $100B in monthly liquidity. Fed funds futures are pricing about an 88% probability of a December rate cut, and ISM manufacturing sits at 48.7 for November, consistent with softer activity that justifies easier policy. The combination of seasonality, a QT stop, and high odds of a cut is exactly the kind of regime that has historically favoured risk assets into year end when earnings remain firm. 🔥 Options flow I’m watching an aggressive options tape that lined up with today’s price action. Today’s Unusual Options Activity for 01Dec25 flagged flows in: $SLV, $BYND, $GS, $TSLR, $B, $HTZ, $MDB, $BBWI, $CAPR, $CRDO, $ALB, $MSTX, $CONL, $DOW, $SILJ, $PSKY, $XOP, $NLY, $PAAS, $IRBT, $EXK Institutional flows showed heavy call sweeps in precious metals such as $SLV, $SILJ, $PAAS, and $EXK where call premium ran roughly 3:1 versus puts and gamma exposure clustered in the $28–$30 region. I’m noting that consumer proxies such as $BYND, $BBWI, and $IRBT saw active upside call buying, while financials like $GS and $NLY, AI adjacent names $MDB, $CRDO, $TSLR, energy plays $XOP and $DOW, and crypto linked tickers $MSTX, $CONL, $CAPR, $PSKY, $HTZ, $B all printed notable flow. On the index side I’m watching a defensive skew with put walls forming near $SPX 6,700. VIX term structure is slightly inverted with front month implied volatility near 18% versus 16% in later expiries, a clear step up from November’s complacency. Cross ticker alignment still shows delta positive flows into AI winners, but gross de risking from systematic strategies is capping upside convexity for now. 🛢️ Commodities I’m tracking a constructive commodities lens that lines up with the options tape. Precious metals traded with a bullish tone as silver advanced around 2.1% alongside those aggressive call flows in $SLV and $SILJ. Real yields compressed toward 1.8%, enhancing the relative appeal of hedges against fiat debasement. Energy stabilised with Brent crude holding in the mid 60s as OPEC+ delays meaningful new cuts. Copper slipped about 1.2%, reflecting China demand softness at the margin, while gold ticked up around 0.4% and continued to trade as a liquidity proxy in a post QT world. I’m watching whether a confirmed Fed pivot plus growth jitters extends the bid in precious metals into early 2026. 📊 Market breadth Breadth deteriorated sharply beneath the index surface. On the NYSE, advancers were 1,515 versus 2,822 decliners with up volume at 461.36M and down volume at 789.61M. On the Nasdaq, advancers were 3,230 versus 7,968 decliners with up volume at 5,811.18M and down volume at 9,812.20M. Downside volume accounted for roughly 63% of turnover on both exchanges, confirming real selling rather than just light profit taking. I’m noting that new highs still beat lows which is important when volatility spikes. NYSE printed 250 highs versus 55 lows and Nasdaq printed 463 highs versus 190 lows. Historically that pattern, breadth negative but highs still outpacing lows, has been associated with roughly a 70% probability of recovery within about 10 sessions. I’m also watching internal leadership as about 40% of S&P 500 constituents now sit below their 50 day moving average, up from around 25% into the November low. 📈 Index action I’m tracking the precise close across all major benchmarks: • $DJI: 47,289.33, down 427.09, minus 0.90% • $SPX: 6,812.63, down 36.46, minus 0.53% • $OEX: 3,422.83, down 16.04, minus 0.47% • Nasdaq Composite: 23,275.92, down 89.76, minus 0.38% • $RUT: 2,469.13, down 31.31, minus 1.25% • $MID: 3,290.77, down 17.72, minus 0.54% • $VIX: 17.24, up 0.89, up 5.44% I’m noting that after November’s historic reversal, where the S&P 500 swung from a 4.7% drawdown on 21Nov25 to finish the month up 0.1% on 28Nov25, today’s move represents about a 38% retrace of that rally. The pullback is currently testing initial support near $SPX 6,750 and Nasdaq 23,000. VIX at 17.24 sits around the 65th percentile of its recent range which keeps a close eye on any further steepening in the term structure if gamma hedging intensifies below $SPX 6,800. 🚀 Biggest movers I’m focused on single stock catalysts that dominated the tape: • MongoDB $MDB rallied 16% after hours on a huge beat and raise • Credo Technology $CRDO surged roughly 22% after hours on what management called the strongest quarter in company history • Metals proxies such as $SLV and $PAAS moved with the silver bid and call activity • Vestis $VSTS traded heavy after a mixed quarter and cautious guidance • $IREN traded around a complex capital structure announcement as new convertibles, capped calls, and equity issuance reshaped the balance sheet These names frame the current regime where AI infrastructure, data platforms, and balance sheet optimisation remain key lenses for institutional money. 🧭 Sector snapshot I’m watching sector behaviour to map where money is rotating. Technology led declines, off about 1.1%, as semiconductors digested AI profitability questions and high multiple pressure. Within tech, the internal shift favoured AI infrastructure suppliers and networking over mega cap platform names. Retail was broadly flat, anchored by resilient Cyber Monday expectations. Financials slipped around 0.4% as the curve steepened further with the 2s–10s spread near 28 basis points. Small caps underperformed on liquidity stress while healthcare and utilities gained roughly 0.3%, in line with defensive positioning. Sentiment indicators confirm the reset. I’m noting the AAII survey with about 42% bulls, down from roughly 55% in October, and CNN’s Fear and Greed index near 45, solidly neutral. That combination of softer price action with moderating optimism often builds a better risk reward profile into strong seasonal windows. 🌍 Macro context I’m focused on the broader macro sequence that frames December. Fed QT has ended, opening the door for balance sheet stabilisation that could ease financial conditions by roughly 10 basis points on standard indices. Core PCE is tracking near 2.7%, while the 10 year Treasury yield has slipped toward 4.25%. The dollar index has eased about 0.2% on rate cut expectations, which supports risk assets and commodities at the margin. European PMI has rebounded to about 50.2, just back into expansion territory and marginally tempering hard landing fears there. ISM manufacturing remains in contraction for a ninth month with new orders near 49.4 which is consistent with slower goods demand but not outright collapse. Geopolitical tail risks, including progress in US–Ukraine discussions and China’s soft PMIs, continue to shape energy premia and cross asset volatility. I’m watching crypto’s linkage to equities where the beta to the Nasdaq has moved up toward 1.8 and correlations have fluctuated around 0.6. That is why today’s 6% $BTC move mattered for $NDX and high beta growth. 🔬 Single stock spotlights 🟢 MongoDB $MDB MongoDB smashed expectations and reaffirmed the AI data platform theme. • Q3 fiscal 2026 adj EPS: $1.32, beating by $0.53 • Revenue: $628.3M, beating by $35M, up 19% YoY • FY26 revenue guide: $2.434B to $2.439B versus about $2.36B previously expected • Atlas contributed 75% of revenue with 30% YoY growth • Net loss: $2.0M, an improvement versus prior periods Management flagged “an exceptional quarter” with existing customers expanding spend and net new logos adding to momentum as AI workloads scale. Non GAAP margins are now around 28%, reinforcing the path toward durable profitability. Shares traded about 16% higher after hours. I’m tracking a high conviction options trade where someone spent $138,000 in call premium on $MDB $392.50 strikes expiring 05Dec25 at about $460 per contract. If $MDB rips to $415.07 that position would be worth around $626,769, roughly a 500% surge. Valuation screens near 12x forward sales, which institutions can live with while AI spending remains robust. 🟢 Credo Technology $CRDO Credo delivered a textbook AI networking blowout. • EPS: $0.67, beating the $0.50 estimate by $0.17 • Revenue: $268M, beating $235M by $33M, up 272% YoY • EPS growth: 857% YoY • Q3 guidance: $335M to $345M versus $247M expected Management highlighted that this was the strongest quarter in Credo’s history, powered by the build out of the world’s largest AI training and inference clusters. Margins expanded toward about 62% as hyperscaler cloud and data centre spend grew roughly 40% QoQ. Shares surged about 22% after hours and I’m watching this as a high conviction leader in the AI infrastructure capex wave that could reach $500B in cumulative spend through 2026. 🟡 Iris Energy $IREN DI’m noting a major capital structure event at $IREN. The company announced $2B in new convertible notes maturing in 2032 and 2033 with up to $300M in additional optional issuance. Alongside that it plans a direct equity offering to fund repurchases of existing 2029 and 2030 convertibles. Proceeds are earmarked for capped call structures, debt reduction, and general corporate uses. The aim is to optimise leverage and partially reduce dilution risk, potentially trimming that by about 15% over time. Given the current crypto volatility and higher rate backdrop, I’m treating this as a neutral but important rebalancing of the capital stack. 🔴 Vestis $VSTS Vestis delivered a mixed quarter that leaned cautious. • Q4 EPS: $0.03, missing by $0.03 • Revenue: $712M, beating by $21M and up about 4% YoY, including an extra week • FY26 revenue guide: flat to minus 2% versus normalised FY25 Management flagged softer services demand and margin pressure near 8% from input costs and wage growth. Shares fell around 4% in the aftermarket. I’m tracking it as a barometer for cyclical service exposure and labour cost dynamics. 🥫 Defensive and staples lens I’m focused on how investors are quietly building defensive exposure into this seasonal window. Utilities, staples, and healthcare have historically outperformed by around 2.1% in low volatility December regimes. Today’s small gains in healthcare and utilities plus the flows in $BBWI from the UOA list confirm that institutions are nibbling on defensives rather than fully abandoning risk. Hedge fund positioning supports that read. Net exposure is around 32% long equities with gross exposure near 180%, which signals trimmed risk rather than a full scale de risk event. In that kind of environment, staples, utilities, and high quality dividend names often act as parking lots for risk that later rotates back into cyclicals once macro data stabilises. 🔥 IPO and market heat I’m watching the broader market heat through the lens of AI infrastructure and liquidity. The AI capex cycle, highlighted by Credo and MongoDB tonight, points toward roughly $500B in data and compute investment through 2026. That theme is absorbing a significant share of institutional risk budget. At the same time the small cap IPO pipeline remains constrained with an estimated 20% liquidity discount relative to pre 2022 norms. That discount is one reason the Russell 2000 continues to lag, as new listings come at lower valuations and secondary liquidity is thin. I’m treating this as both a risk, via volatility spikes, and an opportunity when liquidity pockets appear near support. 🤖 AI and tech catalysts I’m tracking AI and tech as the core narrative driver for this tape. MongoDB and Credo together showcase the compute data nexus: hyperscalers are investing aggressively in both the networking fabric and the software stack that manages AI workloads. AI sector EPS growth is tracking toward roughly 15% in 2026, underpinned by multi year commitments to GPU clusters, high speed interconnects, and data platforms. Even as investors question near term profitability for some mega cap AI stories, results like $MDB and $CRDO show that infrastructure and enabling software can grow far faster than headline indices. Cross asset correlations to crypto have eased from extremes but remain meaningful, so I’m keeping a close eye on $BTC swings when calibrating exposure in higher beta AI names. 📐 Technical setups I’m watching the indices through a clean technical framework. After November’s massive reversal, today’s pullback has retraced roughly 38% of the advance and tested the first key supports around $SPX 6,750 and Nasdaq 23,000. RSI on the S&P 500 has cooled from overbought readings near 75 back toward about 58, which is consistent with a healthy reset rather than a full trend break. VIX at 17.24 is not at panic levels but sits high enough that further volatility could steepen the term structure if hedging accelerates below $SPX 6,800. If breadth stabilises and new highs continue to beat lows, my base case is that the market can make a push toward $SPX 6,950 into mid month, backed by Santa seasonality, a Fed leaning toward easing, and powerful AI earnings support from names like $MDB and $CRDO. 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerWire @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Tiger_Earnings