To The Moon

In the past five days, $Endeavour Silver(EXK)$ 's share price has risen by 40.45%.

U.S. stocks lift on the last day of November as Wall Street eagerly awaits the results of Black Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% and needs a slightly larger gain to avoid its first down month since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%.

The best-performing concepts is Silver Concept. Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $Endeavour Silver(EXK)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

In the past five days, $Endeavour Silver(EXK)$ 's share price has risen by 40.45%.

Endeavour Silver Corp. is a Canada-based mid-tier precious metals company. With operations in Mexico and Peru, and the development of its mine in Jalisco state, Terronera, the Company focuses on contributing to the mining industry and the communities in which it operates.

Investment Thesis

Endeavour has seen its share price surge over the past few months and found itself up ~130% YTD. This strong performance is largely related to it being a beneficiary of rising silver prices but also because of its scarcity, with M&A earlier this year shrinking the number of silver producers available for investment.

However, while Endeavour Silver is certainly a beneficiary of record silver prices and sports a growing production profile, the road from construction to commercial production at Terronera over the past three years has been littered with expensive share dilution, dramatically reducing the per-share benefit to shareholders.

In my view, this makes it more difficult to justify chasing this near-parabolic rally in the stock, especially given that, unlike many of its unhedged peers, EXK is not seeing the full benefit of spot prices with hedges on gold (68,000 ounces at $2,329/oz) and partial hedges on silver (zero-cost collars capping its upside at $42.00/oz on a portion of production).

In this update, we'll dig into why EXK remains an inferior way to bet on higher silver prices vs. some of its peers and why this rally is providing an opportunity to book partial profits into strength.

Q2 Results and Q3 Production & 2026 Outlook

Endeavour Silver reported Q2 2025 revenue of approximately US$85 million (+46% YoY) and operating cash flow of about US$22 million (+75% YoY). However, due to ongoing spending on the Terronera project and the Kolpa acquisition, the company continued to post negative free cash flow of around –US$33 million, with capital expenditures totaling about US$54 million. Quarter-end cash stood at US$52 million, with net debt of roughly US$110 million.

In Q2, AISC rose into the US$25/oz+ range (Guanacevi: US$26.81/oz; Kolpa: US$25.66/oz), keeping cost pressure elevated. Even so, higher silver prices (~US$32.95/oz) and record gold prices (~US$3,320/oz) drove an improvement in AISC margins to US$7.79/oz (23.6%), a 350 bps increase from the prior year.

In Q3, production surged due to Kolpa’s full-quarter contribution, but financial performance remained constrained by continued capital spending. With Terronera construction nearing completion (~US$338 million invested to date), Q3 free cash flow outflows are expected to improve, though meaningful positive free cash flow is unlikely before 2026, once Terronera reaches stable commercial production.

Valuation

Endeavour Silver’s market cap is ~US$2.51B and EV ~US$2.62B at US$8.50/share, implying ~13× FY2026 EV/FCF—too expensive for a producer with declining per-share metrics, concentrated Mexican assets, and short mine lives.

Hedging also caps upside: 68k oz gold hedged far below spot, ~1 Moz silver capped at US$42/oz. As a result, EXK’s leverage to higher metal prices is limited.

The larger problem is dilution: ~43M shares issued in 12 months (~17%), with a new US$60M ATM still ahead. Production per share and reserves per share continue to fall.

Even using generous assumptions (11× 2026 CF, 1.4× P/NAV), fair value is US$7.55. At US$8.50–9.10 resistance, valuation is full with no margin of safety and weak risk/reward versus peers.

Overvalued After Rally

2025 failed to deliver for Endeavour Silver: Terronera hasn’t reached commercial production, costs rose with Kolpa, and Q2 free cash flow was sharply negative.

Share dilution continued, though most appears behind the company. EXK is now a below-average producer trading at ~13× FY2026 EV/FCF (conservative) or >9× at spot, while better peers trade below 5×.

No reason to chase above $8.50; rallies above $9.15 should be used to take profits.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Endeavour Silver in the last 3 months. The average price target is $10.63 with a high forecast of $13.59 and a low forecast of $7.75. The average price target represents a 7.05% change from the last price of $9.93.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4829681-endeavour-silver-stock-sluggish-start-at-terronera-maintain-hold

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