The week ahead - US and China PMIs
– Over the weekend on Sun, China released Nov NBS Manufacturing PMI which increased from 49.0 in October to 49.2, in line with expectations
– Mon morning: the market will be closely listening to BOJ Governor Ueda's comments for any indications of a Dec hike
– Mon night: the US ISM Manufacturing Index for Nov is projected to improve to 49.2 while remaining below the expansion threshold of 50. The internal components could be telling as well with the new orders to inventories ratio recently suggesting improvement may lie ahead in 2026
– Wed night: US ISM Services Index for Nov is projected to moderate slightly, but remain in expansion at 52.2. The employment component may be monitored for signs of a potential rebound in the labor market after softness for much of the year.
– Fri night: US real personal spending for Sep, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, is expected to be unchanged (+0.0%). This would imply a weak handoff effect to 4Q
– The US core PCE index for Sep will also be released, with the headline measure expected to rise by +0.3% from the previous month, and the core measure to come in at +0.2% higher than Aug. This report will help shape expectations around the Fed’s 10 Dec policy decision.
– Investors keen to trade the moves in the US indices, China-related indices of HSI and HSTECH as well as the Nikkei225 may wish to do so via Macquarie's trending index warrants: https://warrants.com.sg/education/Indexwarrants
– They cost between SGD 0.057 to SGD 0.164 and will move approximately between 6.7 times to 14.8 times more than the underlying futures, depending on their respective effective gearing levels.
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