$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ π₯ππ The Magnificent 7 Are Repricing the Market. One Name Has Already Taken Control of 2025 πππ₯
π The Macro Picture Behind the Index Rebound
The leadership break inside the Magnificent 7 has accelerated. Combined Q3 revenue reached $588.7B, up from $278.3B in Q3 2020, yet performance dispersion is now extreme. Alphabet leads 2025 at 54.7%. Nvidia follows at 38.9%. Microsoft is at 15.6%. Apple at 7.2%. Amazon at 1.5%. Meta at 0.8%. Tesla flat. The past three months have moved faster; Alphabet is up roughly 45%, Meta is down more than 21%, Nvidia is marginally positive, and Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple remain negative. The index rebound since early November has been carried by one ticker.
π° Valuation Gaps at Multi-Year Extremes
Forward PE and forward POCF data show the most aggressive valuation spread in the group since 2020. Meta is now the cheapest Mag7 stock. Amazon and Alphabet follow. Tesla prices on long dated optionality, not current cash flow. Apple and Microsoft retain premium defensive multiples. Nvidia trades at levels that imply sustained data centre growth without meaningful mean reversion.
π€ AI Infrastructure Demand Escalating at an Unpriced Rate
Alphabet disclosed internally that it must double AI training compute every six months to keep pace with internal and external demand. That single line resets the entire 2026 hyperscaler capex curve, and it explains why AI investment is pushing toward the high twenty to thirty billion dollar range per quarter across Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft. Morgan Stanley models more than 50% Google Cloud revenue growth in 2026 if Alphabet adds at least $50B in net backlog and on demand services grow more than 15%; their bear case, a $20B backlog increase and 25% on demand growth, still reaches more than 50%.
π Market Breadth and Price Structure
Month to date performance confirms the rotation. AMD, Intel, Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft are negative. Alphabet is the only name positive in the FactSet dataset. This is not broad risk appetite; it is targeted capital moving into the one megacap delivering operational leverage across AI, cloud, and advertising simultaneously.
ποΈ Market Cap Ladder Is Already Shifting
Market cap rankings now reflect the new hierarchy. Nvidia sits above $4.7T. Apple at just over $4T. Microsoft near $3.65T. Alphabet at roughly $3.62T, now less than $25B from overtaking Microsoft. Amazon follows at $2.41T. The relative moves track where durable value creation is occurring, particularly in compute intensity, cloud workloads, and data infrastructure.
π₯ Why Alphabet Is the Outlier in 2025
Alphabetβs advance is not sentiment driven; it reflects execution across Gemini 3, TPU acceleration, stronger advertising performance, a more favourable rate backdrop, and earnings revisions moving sharply higher. Alphabet has never finished a calendar year as the strongest Mag7 performer; if present momentum holds, 2025 may be the first.
π Positioning Into Year End
Meta is the cheapest Mag7 stock. Amazon and Alphabet follow. Tesla prices far into the future. Apple and Microsoft remain high quality defensives. Nvidia anchors the entire AI infrastructure cycle. With compute requirements doubling on six month intervals and capex curves steepening, the current leaderboard is unlikely to hold through 2026.
πβ Which name do you believe is best positioned to finish 2025 at the top of the group.
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