To The Moon

Circle has emerged as one of the standout players in the current cryptocurrency boom—specifically within the fast-growing stablecoin sector. The company made its public debut in June, pricing its IPO at $31 per share. Shares opened at $69 on the New York Stock Exchange and surged in the days that followed, hitting a high of $299 on June 23.

But the momentum didn’t last. Circle is now navigating a series of challenges. Competition in the stablecoin market is intensifying, and its core revenue model is threatened by falling interest rates, which directly weaken returns on reserve investments. Meanwhile, its biggest rival — Tether, whose profitability and valuation dwarf Circle’s — is moving back into the U.S. market, posing a major threat on Circle’s home turf.

Circle’s stock had slipped back to $76 as of this Monday, nearly erasing its early gains and hovering just above its opening price. That leaves investors asking: what comes next for Circle’s stock?

Revenue Growth Under Pressure

Stablecoin issuers like Circle primarily earn revenue by investing customer reserves in short-duration, cash-like assets such as U.S. Treasurys. As interest rates decline, returns on these investments inevitably shrink, even if overall revenue continues to grow.

Compounding the pressure, Circle’s revenue-sharing deal with Coinbase has significantly squeezed margins. In the second quarter of 2025, Circle’s distribution fees owed to Coinbase were more than triple its adjusted profit of $126 million. By comparison, Tether — operating under far fewer regulatory constraints and without the same auditing requirements — reported a staggering $4.9 billion profit over the same period.

Options Strategies

Below are several options strategies to consider, depending on whether you hold a bullish or bearish outlook on Circle’s stock.

Bullish Strategies

(If you believe Circle’s stock will rebound.)

1. Bull Put Spread

When to Use: Neutral to mildly bullish — suitable for traders confident CRCL will stay above $70. Generates income from premium collection.

Structure:

• Sell 1 × Dec 19 put @ $70

• Buy 1 × Dec 19 put @ $65

$CRCL Vertical 251219 65.0P/70.0P$

Max Profit: $176.5 (est.)

Max Loss: -$323.5 (est.)

Breakeven(Expiry): $68.24

Estimated Margin: $500

Source: Tiger Trade App

Notes: A bear put spread caps the maximum loss to the net premium paid for the structure. If Circle trades below $70 before expiration, the short put can be assigned early. So this strategy is appropriate if you are willing to buy the Circle stock below $70.

2. Bull Call Spread

When to Use:

Moderately bullish outlook — expecting further upside but wanting to cap risk and reduce cost.

Structure:

• Buy 1 × Dec 19 call @ $80

• Sell 1 × Dec 19 call @ $85

$CRCL Vertical 251219 80.0C/85.0C$

Max Profit: $360

Max Loss: -$140

Breakeven: $81.4

Source: Tiger Trade App

Notes:

• Both strikes are out-of-the-money (OTM).

• A strong near-term rally is needed; otherwise, time decay (Theta) will erode value.

• Strategy benefits from rising implied volatility (IV) but suffers from low liquidity or falling IV.

Bearish Strategies

(If you believe Circle’s stock will drop further)

3. Bear Put Spread

When to Use: Moderately bearish outlook — expecting a pullback while limiting downside risk.

Structure:

• Buy one $75 put (Dec 19 expiry)

• Sell one $70 put (same expiry)

$CRCL Vertical 251219 70.0P/75.0P$

Max Profit: $275

Max Loss: $225 (Est.)

Breakeven: $72.75

Source: Tiger Trade App

Pros: Generates income in a flat-to-weak market; defined risk.

Cons: Losses start if CRCL exceeds $73; limited profit potential.

Disclaimer: Options involve significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Traders should assess their risk tolerance and investment objectives before entering any positions.