To The Moon

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ is expected to be released on Monday, November 17, 2025, before the market open.

Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis (Pre-Release)

XPeng's third quarter is already largely characterized by its pre-announced vehicle delivery numbers and prior company guidance.

1. Delivery Volume (Pre-Announced)

Actual Q3 2025 Deliveries: XPeng has already announced a total of 116,007 Smart EVs delivered in Q3 2025.

This figure represents a massive 149% Year-over-Year (YoY) increase and is within the company's prior guidance range of 113,000 to 118,000 units.

Implication: This record-high volume is already priced into the stock to a significant degree. The focus will now shift to whether this high volume successfully translated into better-than-expected financial performance.

2. Financial Expectations (Guidance & Consensus)

Revenue Guidance: For Q3 2025, the company had previously guided for total revenue between RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 21.0 billion. This represents a strong YoY growth of approximately 94% to 107.9%.

EPS/Net Loss Consensus: The consensus forecast generally anticipates a continued net loss but one that is significantly narrowing compared to previous quarters and the prior year, continuing the trend of moving toward profitability. Some analysts have even suggested the possibility of the company turning a profit earlier than expected, potentially in Q3, due to strong sales momentum and cost discipline.

Summary of XPeng (XPEV) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings

XPeng's Q2 2025 results were marked by record-high operational metrics and significant progress in profitability, signaling that the company's cost control and new product cycle strategies are gaining traction.

Key Financial & Operational Highlights

The most significant positive takeaways were the record-high gross margin and the dramatic expansion in the vehicle margin (from 10.5% in Q1 2025 to 14.3% in Q2 2025). This improvement was attributed by management primarily to ongoing cost reduction efforts and an improved product mix (selling more high-margin models).

Lesson Learned from Q3 2025 Guidance

For investors, the guidance provided for the following quarter (Q3 2025) often holds more weight than the past quarter's results.

Q3 2025 Guidance Highlights

The Lesson: The Market is Now Focused on "Profitable Growth"

The key lesson learned from the Q2 results and the Q3 guidance is that XPeng has successfully shifted the narrative from just volume growth to profitable, scaled growth.

Margin is King: The stellar Q2 margin improvement validated the company's efforts to control costs and optimize its product lineup despite intense price competition in the Chinese EV market. The expectation from the market is now that the company must maintain or slightly increase this margin as volume grows to demonstrate true pricing power and scale efficiency.

Volume is a Prerequisite, Not the Goal: The record Q3 delivery guidance confirmed that the growth engine is working, but the market knows that high volume alone is meaningless if margins collapse. The guidance effectively set a high bar, teaching investors that the next crucial step is for XPeng to prove this massive volume translates to an accelerating narrowing of the net loss and a path toward recurring, sustainable profitability.

Technology Investment is Central: The commentary confirmed continued high investment in R&D, particularly for its advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) like XNGP and the MONA sub-brand. This suggests the company views its technology leadership as the key differentiator that allows it to charge higher prices and maintain better margins than rivals whose primary selling point is low cost.

The message from the Q2 2025 earnings was: XPeng has a successful product and cost strategy that is driving a high-volume rebound. Now, the market will rigorously judge whether this growth is profitable and sustainable in Q3 and beyond.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Since the delivery volume is known, the true market-moving factors will be the company's profitability metrics and its forward-looking guidance.

1. Gross Margin (The Profitability Litmus Test)

This is arguably the most critical metric. Investors will be looking for a continuation of the upward trend:

• Vehicle Margin: Did vehicle margin continue to increase from the 14.3% reported in Q2 2025? Improvement suggests the company is successfully managing cost reduction, benefiting from economies of scale, and selling a favorable product mix (e.g., higher-margin models like the G7 or high-trim levels).

• Overall Gross Margin: Did the overall gross margin rise above the 17.3% recorded in Q2 2025? A beat here would signal strong operational efficiency despite the intense price competition in the Chinese EV market.

2. Guidance for Q4 2025 and Full Year

The outlook provided by management is often the single biggest catalyst for the stock price post-earnings.

• Q4 Deliveries/Revenue: What are the new targets for the next quarter? A strong, optimistic forecast will likely lead to a positive stock reaction.

• Path to Profitability: Will management reaffirm or accelerate the timeline for achieving quarterly (or annual) non-GAAP net profitability?

3. Operating Expenses and R&D

While revenue grows, investors want to see Operating Expenses (OpEx) and Selling, General & Administrative (SG&A) expenses growing slower than revenue, demonstrating better leverage.

• R&D: Commentary on the continued investment in its advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) like XNGP and the MONA sub-brand for mass-market vehicles will be crucial, as this technology is a key differentiator for XPeng.

4. Cash Position

• Cash and Cash Equivalents: The company's cash position was strong at over RMB 47.5 billion at the end of Q2 2025. Maintaining or growing this strong cash balance is vital for funding future R&D, product development, and international expansion.

XPeng (XPEV) Price Target

Based on 24 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for XPeng, Inc. ADR in the last 3 months. The average price target is $25.95 with a high forecast of $34.00 and a low forecast of $17.00. The average price target represents a -1.64% change from the last price of $26.38.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity Post-Earnings

XPeng (XPEV) is historically a volatile stock around earnings releases. Trading immediately post-earnings is high-risk but presents potential opportunities based on a surprise in the key areas.

Potential Catalysts for a Short-Term Rally (Buy Signal)

Gross Margin Beat: A significant surprise to the upside in both Vehicle Margin and Overall Gross Margin would imply better cost control and pricing power than the market expects, likely triggering a sharp rally.

Early Profitability: If the company reports an unexpected Non-GAAP Net Profit or provides Q4 guidance that firmly forecasts profitability, the stock would likely see a substantial spike.

Very Strong Guidance: A Q4 and full-year outlook that significantly exceeds analyst consensus for deliveries or revenue would serve as a major positive catalyst.

Potential Risks for a Short-Term Drop (Sell Signal)

Margin Miss: If the gross margin is flat or decreases from Q2's levels, it would indicate that heavy price competition or product mix issues are eroding profitability, leading to a sell-off.

Disappointing Guidance: A cautious or lower-than-expected forecast for Q4 deliveries or revenue would be a major negative, even if Q3 results were in line with expectations. For a growth stock, forward guidance is often more important than historical results.

Wider-than-Expected Net Loss: While a loss is expected, a net loss significantly worse than the consensus forecast would raise concerns about operating efficiency and cost management.

Given the pre-announced strong delivery volume, the short-term trading opportunity primarily revolves around the surprise factor in margins and the optimism of the forward guidance.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We have seen how XPEV have managed a nice upside with the bulls in control, and this could be due to investors looking forward to a profitable growth for upcoming earnings, the decline yesterday was due to overall market pullback.

So we might see a slight correction today (14 Nov, Friday) before XPEV earnings next Monday before earnings, as investors might want to comprehend what does the Q3 deliveries of XPEV indicate?

If XPEV could control its operating cost and efficiency, so we might be able to see a clearer path to profitable for XPEV.

Summary

XPeng is set to release its Q3 2025 earnings with the narrative already shifted from just growth to profitable, scaled growth.

Key Metrics to Watch:

Profitability (The Main Focus):

Gross Margin: This is the most critical metric. Following a record 17.3% in Q2, investors need to see this margin maintain or expand to validate its cost control and favorable product mix (e.g., higher G7/G9 sales).

Net Loss: The market expects a continued, significant narrowing of the net loss, pushing the company closer to its goal of quarterly profitability.

Growth (Largely Priced In):

Deliveries/Revenue: Vehicle deliveries are already known at a record 116,007 units (a 149% YoY increase). The reported revenue figure is expected to fall within the guided range of RMB 19.6 to RMB 21.0 billion.

Future Outlook (The Biggest Catalyst):

Q4 2025 Guidance: The most market-moving factor will be the company's outlook for Q4 deliveries and revenue, and any update on the timeline for achieving Non-GAAP net profitability.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity:

Since volume is known, the opportunity for a significant post-earnings move lies in a surprise beat on Gross Margin or an optimistic Q4 guidance that firmly accelerates the path to profit. Conversely, a weak margin or cautious outlook could trigger a sell-off.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think XPEV could produce an unexpected Non-GAAP Net Profit or an optimistic Q4 guidance.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.