To The Moon

$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes on November 14, 2025.

The quantum computing sector, as a whole, is in an early-stage commercialization phase, which means companies like QUBT are highly speculative. Here is a breakdown of the analysis and key metrics to watch.

QUBT Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis & Forecast

Consensus Estimates

Expected Loss: A loss is expected, which is common for early-stage quantum companies due to heavy R&D and operational ramp-up costs. The consensus estimate has been revised slightly higher (indicating a potentially lower loss) in the past 30 days.

Revenue Focus: Revenue is minimal and highly scrutinized. The market is looking for any substantial sign that recent customer wins and product rollouts are translating into meaningful sales.

QUBT Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary and Key Lessons

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) reported its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings after the market close on Thursday, August 14, 2025. The results highlighted the typical characteristics of a pre-revenue, high-growth, pure-play quantum stock: minimal sales but significant technological and commercial progress.

Q2 2025 Financial Summary

Key Financial Highlights:

Revenue Miss: Revenue of $61,000 was a substantial miss against expectations and marked a sharp year-over-year decline. At this early stage, revenue is lumpy and highly volatile.

Widened Net Loss (Non-Cash): The net loss of was significantly larger than the EPS consensus. Crucially, a large portion () of this loss was non-cash, stemming from the mark-to-market valuation of a warrant derivative liability. The operating loss, which reflects cash burn from operations, was .

Strengthened Cash Position: The company successfully closed a major private placement, boosting its cash and equivalents to , providing a significant financial runway for R&D and scaling.

Key Operational Highlights:

Chip Foundry Operational: Announced the completion and commencement of operations at its quantum photonic chip foundry in Tempe, Arizona, a critical step for manufacturing and scaling its proprietary technology.

Commercial Traction: Secured commercial orders and first shipments of its products, including the Quantum Photonic Vibrometer (QPV) and entangled photon sources, to institutions in Europe, Asia, and the U.S.

Customer Wins: Announced a purchase order for its EmuCore reservoir computing device to a major global automotive manufacturer and, subsequent to the quarter, a purchase order from a top 5 U.S. bank for its quantum security solutions.

Lesson Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance and Commentary

The key lesson from QUBT's Q2 2025 report centers on the disconnect between technological progress and immediate financial results, and the market's need for a clear timeline for revenue scale.

Lesson: The "Meaningful Revenue" Timeline is Long and Investor Patience is Tested.

The most important takeaway for investors and traders was the guidance regarding the commercialization timeline of their core business: the photonic chip foundry.

Management Commentary: The company stated: "As we scale the foundry, we expect revenue to slowly grow and targeting a significant revenue contribution in the next twelve to eighteen months as we ramp." (i.e., targeting meaningful revenue contribution in late 2026/early 2027).

The Market Reaction: This statement solidified the reality that despite impressive milestones (new foundry, major customer wins), the journey from proof-of-concept to sustained, material revenue is a multi-year process. The significant EPS miss and minimal revenue decline, while expected for a startup, were compounded by the long timeline for financial payoff.

Investor Focus Shift: The lesson is that in a high-volatility, early-stage sector like quantum computing, investors must ignore near-term, small revenue numbers and focus solely on two long-term catalysts:

1. Cash Runway: QUBT has a long runway () which mitigates near-term insolvency risk.

2. Commercialization Timeline: QUBT is positioned to accelerate commercialization, but the "significant revenue" phase remains 4-6 quarters away. The market will trade on any news that accelerates or delays this 12-to-18-month window.

The short-term disappointment from the financial miss was offset by the long-term optimism from the operational milestones, leading to a volatile but non-catastrophic stock price reaction.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Given QUBT's early commercial stage, traditional metrics like P/E are not useful. The focus is on commercial traction, technological progress, and balance sheet strength.

1. Commercial Progress & Revenue Growth

New Customer Wins & Partnerships: Look for announcements of commercial orders, especially from large enterprises (like the reported top-five U.S. bank order for their Quantum Cybersecurity Solution) or government agencies. The focus is on the quality of the contracts, not just the quantity.

Conversion of Preorders to Shipments: Management previously noted that their new photonic chip foundry in Tempe, AZ, should begin generating "meaningful revenue contribution" as preorders convert to shipments. Investors will be watching for confirmation of this revenue.

Total Revenue: While small, significant sequential or year-over-year revenue growth would be a major positive catalyst.

2. Operational & Technological Milestones

Ramp-up of the Photonic Chip Foundry: Updates on the operational status and production volume of their thin-film lithium niobate chip foundry are crucial, as this is a key long-term product driver.

Order Fulfillment/Backlog: Information on their ability to fulfill the announced orders for products like the Quantum Photonic Vibrometer and entangled photon sources.

R&D and Operating Expenses: While losses are expected, investors will look to see if gross margin shows signs of improvement and if the increased operating expenses are aligned with strategic R&D and sales expansion, justifying the cash burn.

3. Financial Strength & Cash Position

Cash and Cash Equivalents: QUBT recently completed a major financing round. A strong cash position (reported at $\sim\$349$ million in Q2 2025) is vital to fund multi-year R&D and operational losses. Watch for the current cash burn rate (Cash From Operating Activities) to gauge the company's financial runway.

Insider Activity: Significant insider selling has been observed recently in QUBT and peers. Investors often view persistent selling by those closest to the company as a negative signal, despite the overall sector excitement.

Quantum Computing (QUBT) Price Target

Based on 3 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Quantum Computing in the last 3 months. The average price target is $26.33 with a high forecast of $40.00 and a low forecast of $15.00. The average price target represents a 136.39% change from the last price of $11.14.

Trading Short-Term Post-Earnings

Trading around QUBT's earnings is highly speculative due to the stock's extreme volatility and its high valuation based on future potential, not current fundamentals.

Key Factors for Short-Term Trading

Earnings Surprise History: QUBT's past earnings results have shown significant one-day price reactions (e.g., a +39.3% gain after an EPS surprise in May 2025, but a -0.4% decline after a no-surprise report in August 2025). This volatility is a double-edged sword.

Catalyst for a Big Move: Since the company is expected to report a loss and minimal revenue, a significant positive move post-earnings would likely require an unexpected, market-moving announcement, such as:

• A major, multi-million-dollar commercial contract from a Tier 1 client.

• A major technological breakthrough or a clear, accelerated timeline for a new product.

• An EPS/Revenue beat that is significantly better than the minimal consensus.

Risk of Sell-Off: Any disappointment—even a slight miss on the minimal revenue forecast, a wider-than-expected loss, or a lack of forward-looking commercial visibility—could trigger a severe sell-off, given the stock's massive run-up over the past year.

Short-term trading is high-risk. The market may be betting on a repeat of a positive surprise, but the lack of significant revenue consensus leaves the stock vulnerable to outsized moves in either direction based on small pieces of new information or qualitative commentary.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing how QUBT have suffered a significant decline since the pullback in October, currently we are seeing the RSI momentum changed to negative and it is trading pretty far from the 200-day period, which could mean that market is expecting further downside for this stock, and the only way to reverse this trend would be a significant improvement in the losses for this quarter, a profitable quarter would even be better.

Similarly, a significant revenue for this quarter would be a good catalyst to move the share price higher, but we need to understand that quantum computing is still in early stages, so we might not see significant interest and also sentiment to increase for this stock.

Summary

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings after the market closes on November 14, 2025. The company is expected to continue reporting minimal financial results, reflecting its early-stage commercialization phase.

Consensus & Financial Outlook

EPS Forecast: A loss of per share is anticipated, a slight year-over-year improvement from .

Revenue Forecast: Revenue is expected to be small, around $0.10 - $0.117 million, largely flat compared to the year-ago quarter. A significant revenue surprise is unlikely but would be a major catalyst.

Key Metrics to Watch

Since financial results are minimal, investors will focus on qualitative operational milestones:

Commercial Conversion: Updates on converting recent pilot programs and purchase orders (like the one from a top 5 U.S. bank) into delivered systems and recognized revenue.

Foundry Scale: Progress updates on the thin-film photonic chip foundry in Arizona. QUBT needs to show it is successfully integrating its technology to accelerate future scale.

Cash Burn: While its $349 million cash position provides a long runway, investors will monitor the burn rate (operating loss) to ensure capital is being deployed efficiently toward R&D and sales expansion.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity

Trading QUBT post-earnings is high-risk due to the stock's extreme volatility (Beta of 3.85).

Catalyst for a Rally: A significant positive move would require an unexpected, multi-million-dollar commercial contract or a breakthrough announcement that clearly shortens the timeline for mass commercialization.

Risk of Sell-Off: A failure to provide strong forward-looking commercial visibility or a greater-than-expected operating loss could trigger a sharp sell-off, as the stock trades heavily on future potential rather than current fundamentals.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think QUBT would be able to post a narrower losses and a significant revenue improvement.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.