To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m extremely confident the market is punishing the wrong variable today. Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) delivered a blockbuster Q3-25: total revenue and reserve income of $740M, up 66% year over year from $447M, and GAAP EPS of $0.64 that crushed estimates near $0.18 to $0.22. Net income hit $214M, up 202% year over year. USDC in circulation ended the quarter at $73.7B, up 108% year over year, with average USDC in circulation at $67.8B, up 97%. On-chain USDC transaction volume surged 580% to $9.6T. Shares still slid roughly 10% intraday as traders fixated on lower forward interest rates and a higher operating expense outlook. The structural story is accelerating USDC adoption, rising platform attach, and a widening payments network moat, evidenced by stablecoin market share at 29%, up 643 bps year over year. 

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

• Total revenue and reserve income: $740M, up 66% year over year, above consensus around $700M to $706.7M.

• GAAP EPS: $0.64, a beat of roughly $0.42 versus Street ranges near $0.18 to $0.22.

• Net income: $214M, up 202% year over year.

• Adjusted EBITDA: $166M, up 78% year over year, with a 57% margin, up 737 bps year over year.

• Revenue less distribution costs: $292M, up 55% year over year, RLDC margin 39%, down 270 bps year over year as distribution and transaction costs rose faster than revenue.

• Key operating drivers: average USDC in circulation $67.8B, up 97% year over year. USDC minted $79.7B, up 128% year over year. USDC redeemed $67.3B, up 112% year over year. USDC on platform $10.2B, up 1,277% year over year. Stablecoin market share 29%, up 643 bps year over year.

• Outlook updates: FY25 adjusted operating expenses lifted to $495M–$510M. FY25 Other Revenue guide raised to $90M–$100M.

• CEO lens: “Circle continued to see accelerating adoption of USDC and our platform in the third quarter as we build the new Economic OS for the internet.” Jeremy Allaire.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk

• Rate sensitivity: a falling rate cycle compresses reserve yields, the biggest near-term headwind since reserve income is the largest revenue component. The tape is front-running this dynamic. 

• Distribution cost growth: distribution and transaction costs expanded rapidly, pressuring RLDC margin to 39%, down 270 bps year over year. Mix should improve as higher-margin platform and services scale. 

• Guidance trade-off: heavier FY25 opex for Arc, CPN and global partnerships, while tightening RLDC margin outlook to about 38% and raising Other Revenue guidance, signalling confidence in higher-margin lines. 

• Policy and competition: the GENIUS Act establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins, legitimising the category while increasing compliance demands. New entrants may intensify competition, yet Circle’s network effects and partnerships are meaningful advantages.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment

Coverage is polarised: some outlets highlight the operating-expense guide and rate exposure, others focus on accelerating adoption. Recent notes and press frame the quarter as a clear beat with shares soft on cost guidance and rate fears, a classic setup for mispricing when growth durability is underappreciated. For discovery and rotation, watch $ARKF, $BITO, and $COIN as adjacent vehicles and partners.

📉📈 Technical Setup

Your 4-hour chart with Keltner and Bollinger overlays shows a persistent downtrend channel. Price is riding the lower Keltner envelope and hugging the Bollinger lower band. The 13-EMA and 21-EMA sit below the 55-EMA, confirming trend pressure. RSI prints at 0 on your read, signalling extreme exhaustion and the potential for a reflex bounce. MACD at 2.350 flags a Buy on histogram expansion if crossover confirms. Key levels from your screens: prior pivot 98.30 as first resistance, then 101.36. Today’s support printed near 87.16 with an intraday mark around 87.34. A mean-reversion attempt toward the mid-Keltner is likely if price reclaims the 21-EMA on rising volume. Failure to hold 83.50 invalidates the bounce and keeps the stair-step lower sequence intact.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context

Lower policy rates compress reserve yields and are being priced ahead of time, while USDC adoption and velocity keep accelerating. Media coverage today mirrors this tug-of-war, highlighting the expense guide and rate sensitivity even as adoption inflects. Sympathy weakness in adjacent crypto-infrastructure names like $NBIS and $CRWV underscores a tape that is shaving multiples across rate-sensitive fintech. The policy backdrop is shifting in Circle’s favour, with the GENIUS Act providing federal clarity and encouraging institutional adoption, while Europe’s regime increases the premium on compliant issuers.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health

At this pace of wallet growth and platform attach, raising Other Revenue guidance looks meaningful for mix. Reserve income remains the largest contributor today, yet services and platform lines are scaling. Given polarised narratives and stock pressure, the setup screens as fair to undervalued on adoption durability and improving mix, with price discovery over the next two quarters tied to Arc monetisation specifics, RLDC stabilisation near 38%, and continued wallet expansion.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I’m treating today’s selloff as a rate-fear air pocket rather than a hit to fundamentals. My stance is Buy on weakness for swing or scale-in.

• Swing entry zone: $86–$90, anchored by today’s 87.16 support.

• Invalidation and stop: a daily close below $83.50 or failure to reclaim the 21-EMA on 4-hour.

• Targets: Base 98.30 retest, Stretch 101.36, then secondary swing toward $112 if the 55-EMA is reclaimed with volume.

• Confirmation signals: reclaim 21-EMA then 55-EMA on rising volume, RLDC margin stabilisation around 38%, Arc or CPN updates that lift higher-margin revenue share, and a MACD crossover to positive.

🏁 Conclusion

I am positioning for the rerating that comes when fear of rate compression fades and the market refocuses on adoption, mix and scale. Execution is compounding, partnerships are widening, and USDC’s footprint is expanding at speed. This is not noise. It is the buildout of an internet-native settlement layer with real revenues, real profits, and durable network effects that outlast today’s dip. 

📌 Key Takeaways

• EPS $0.64 and revenue $740M, up 66% year over year, both ahead of Street. 

• Net income $214M, up 202% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA $166M, up 78%, margin 57%. 

• USDC in circulation $73.7B, up 108% year over year. Stablecoin market share 29%, up 643 bps. 

• RLDC margin 39% as distribution costs outpaced revenue. FY25 RLDC outlook tightened to about 38%. 

• FY25 guides: Other Revenue raised to $90M–$100M. Opex raised to $495M–$510M to fund Arc and CPN. 

• Policy tailwind: GENIUS Act establishes a federal framework, reinforcing compliant issuers and institutional adoption. 

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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