Pop Mart Pulls Back 35% from Peak
$POP MART(09992)$
HK$221.00 (-0.18%): High-flyer cooling off — post-parabolic pullback stabilizing ~35% below HK$339 peak
Market Recap:
Pop Mart International Group last traded at HK$221.0, down 0.18% on below-average volume (~7.7M vs ~16.2M).
Despite the recent drawdown, the stock is still up about +145% YTD, but now sits roughly 35% under its HK$339.8 52-week high, reflecting a deep technical correction in China consumer/growth names after a very strong first half.
Technical Overview:
Price remains below both EMA-20 (~HK$233) and EMA-50 (~HK$250), keeping the short-term trend bearish and confirming an ongoing corrective phase.
MACD (12,26,9) stays in negative territory, though the histogram is starting to contract, hinting that downside momentum is slowing rather than accelerating.
RSI (14) has rebounded from oversold low-30s toward the high-30s, signaling early attempts at basing, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate resistance: HK$233–235 (EMA-20 / recent breakdown area)
Next target zone: HK$250–260 if price can reclaim and hold above the 20-EMA
Support: HK$198–210 initial band, with stronger structural support near HK$200
Fundamentals & Valuation:
Pop Mart trades at a P/E of ~39.8×, a premium to the S&P 500’s ~25× and still rich versus many global discretionary peers, though lower than its earlier >50× multiples.
Beta (~0.72) is moderate for a growth name, and the stock offers a small forward dividend yield around 0.4%.
Consensus 1-year target near HK$360+ implies meaningful upside if earnings growth resumes and sentiment toward China consumer improves.
Outlook:
Near term, the setup suggests a neutral to slightly constructive bias: the worst of the selling pressure may be passing, but bulls need a daily close back above HK$233 to argue for a sustainable rebound toward the HK$250–260 zone.
Failure to hold the HK$210 area would reopen risk of a retest of HK$200 and extend the broader consolidation.
Risk & Disclaimer:
Pop Mart is highly sensitive to China consumer spending, policy shifts, FX moves and sentiment toward Hong Kong growth stocks. Sharp gaps can occur around earnings, macro headlines or regulatory news. This note is technical commentary only, based on current TradingView and Yahoo Finance data, and is not investment advice.
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