To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 financial results on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, before market open (BMO).

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, and its performance is closely tied to the broader digital currency and stablecoin ecosystem.

Consensus Estimates

Consensus EPS (Earnings Per Share) Forecast: $0.17 per share. (Note: Estimates have been revised upward recently).

Consensus Revenue Forecast: Approximately $708.92 million to $709.90 million.

Pre-Earnings Sentiment and Context

Prior Quarter Performance (Q2 2025): CRCL significantly beat the consensus EPS estimate, reporting adjusted earnings of $1.02 per share against an estimate of $0.29.

Earnings ESP: The company currently has a positive Earnings ESP of +14.16%, which, combined with its Zacks Rank, suggests a higher probability of an earnings beat this quarter according to that model.

Stock Performance: The stock has shown volatility since its IPO in June 2025, but its performance has generally outperformed its industry since listing. However, it trades at a high Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple compared to peers, suggesting high growth expectations are already factored in.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Circle delivered a strong top-line performance, significantly beating analyst expectations on adjusted profitability and revenue, primarily driven by the growth of its flagship stablecoin, USDC.

Key Operational Highlights:

Reserve Income Dominance: Reserve Income (interest on assets backing USDC) accounted for over 96% of total revenue, underscoring the business model's heavy reliance on the size of the USDC base and prevailing interest rates.

Product Expansion: The company highlighted the successful launch of the Circle Payments Network (CPN) and the introduction of the Arc Layer-1 blockchain platform, indicating a push toward becoming an essential infrastructure provider.

Regulatory Momentum: Circle noted the passage of the GENIUS Act, which codifies regulatory

Lesson Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance

While the Q2 results were phenomenal, the guidance and accompanying commentary provided investors with a clear lesson about the structural risk in Circle's business model: The high reliance on a positive interest rate environment is a long-term risk that must be offset by successful diversification.

1. The Lesson of Interest Rate Dependency

Guidance Fact: The Q2 revenue was overwhelmingly from reserve interest income. The guidance itself indirectly implies future revenue deceleration if interest rates fall, a widely expected macroeconomic trend over the coming years.

Lesson: Circle is a leveraged play on interest rates. In the short term, high rates are a massive tailwind, leading to "super-normal" adjusted profits. In the long term, investors cannot assume this profitability is sustainable. The company's future value will depend on the growth of USDC (the base asset) multiplied by the interest rate environment.

2. The Lesson of Necessary Diversification

Guidance Fact: Circle set ambitious guidance for "Other Revenue" (non-reserve income, e.g., fees from CPN and developer services) at $75 million to $85 million for the full year 2025. It also expects USDC to maintain a long-term 40% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

Lesson: Growth must be balanced by diversification. The market will increasingly scrutinize the non-reserve income lines. For Circle to justify its high valuation and prove it is a long-term technology company (not just a short-term interest rate arbitrage play), it must show accelerating growth in products like the Circle Payments Network and Arc. Successful diversification is the hedge against the inevitable drop in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate.

3. The Lesson of Market Reaction to "Quality of Earnings"

Guidance Fact: Despite the massive Adjusted EPS beat, the stock experienced significant volatility, including a sharp drop in the days following the report.

Lesson: Investors are looking beyond the headline beat. The stock's reaction suggested that while the interest income was great, the market was focused on the risks—the net loss due to IPO costs, the high P/S valuation, and the looming threat of competitive intensity from other stablecoins (like Tether) and new compliant entrants (like PayPal's PYUSD).

The Q2 earnings proved Circle's profit potential in the current high-rate environment, but the guidance highlighted that the long-term investment thesis hinges entirely on the company's ability to execute on its diversification and long-term USDC growth strategy to withstand a future low-rate environment.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Circle's revenue is heavily influenced by the adoption and usage of its stablecoins and related services. Key metrics to monitor for Q3 2025 include:

1. Stablecoin Circulation and Adoption

USDC in Circulation (Period End and Average): This is the most crucial metric. USDC circulation was $61.3 billion at the end of Q2 2025 and had already increased to $65.2 billion by early August 2025. Strong continued growth in this number directly correlates with the size of the reserves, which generate interest income for Circle.

Onchain USDC Transaction Volume: Growth here indicates increasing utility and activity on the platform. Q2 2025 volume was nearly $6 trillion, up significantly year-over-year.

Number of Meaningful Wallets: An increase in wallets holding USDC indicates broader adoption.

2. Financial Metrics

Total Revenue: The actual revenue compared to the consensus of approx $709 million will be a primary driver of the stock's reaction.

Adjusted EBITDA & Margin: Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was strong at $126 million with a 50% margin. Investors will look for continued high margins, which demonstrate the operational leverage of the stablecoin model.

Revenue Diversification: Look for commentary and growth figures for non-stablecoin core services like the Circle Payments Network and new products such as Circle Gateway and the Arc Layer-1 blockchain. Growth in these areas signals successful business expansion beyond interest on USDC reserves.

3. Strategic Developments & Regulatory Environment

Partnerships: Any updates on adoption from major exchanges (like Binance, OKX), financial institutions (banks, payment companies like FIS, Corpay), or fintech platforms are vital for projecting future growth.

Regulatory Commentary: As a stablecoin issuer, the regulatory landscape is a significant factor. Comments on progress in regulatory clarity in the US and international markets will influence long-term sentiment.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) Price Target

Based on 18 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Circle Internet Group, Inc. Class A in the last 3 months. The average price target is $164.74 with a high forecast of $280.00 and a low forecast of $84.00. The average price target represents a 58.25% change from the last price of $104.10.

Opportunity for Short-Term Trading Post-Earnings

Trading post-earnings is highly speculative and volatile. For CRCL, the options market is anticipating a substantial price movement:

Expected Price Move (Implied Volatility): The options market suggests an expected price move (up or down) of approximately ±13.41% around the November 14th expiration. This wide range highlights the high risk and volatility associated with the report.

Last Quarter's Reaction: Following the Q2 2025 earnings report, the actual price move was a gain of +1.3%, which was significantly less than the options market had predicted (±11.5%). This means that options traders who bet on a large move may have lost money due to an "Implied Volatility Crush."

Potential Short-Term Trading Themes:

The "Beat and Fade" Scenario: Given the positive Earnings ESP and recent upward revision in EPS forecasts, a strong earnings beat is somewhat priced in. If the beat is only moderate, or if the guidance for the next quarter is lackluster, the stock could still see an initial jump followed by profit-taking, or a "fade," due to the already-high valuation and high expectations.

The "Big Surprise" Scenario: A massive beat on all key metrics (especially USDC circulation and revenue diversification) or a significant, positive regulatory announcement could send the stock soaring above the expected volatility range. Conversely, a miss, or a major negative update on USDC market share or regulation, could lead to a sharp decline.

Implied Volatility Crush: For options traders, selling strategies (like short straddles or strangles) betting on the stock moving less than the implied move, or simply taking profit on long options positions before the report, can be appealing due to the typical drop in implied volatility after the news is released.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

CRCL have been on a decline over the past weeks, only managed to see an upward movement from last Friday, but the RSI momentum have turned from positive to negative, this might signal that the concerns whether stablecoins stock could really survive.

But if we were to look at how USDC circulation growth is doing, we might be able to CRCL benefitting from this, and also how CRCL revenue diversification could lead to an earning beat, and could provide a small rally post earnings.

Summary

Circle Internet Group (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, is set to report its Q3 2025 earnings on November 12, 2025, before market open (BMO).

Consensus and Sentiment

• Consensus EPS: $0.17 per share.

• Consensus Revenue: Approximately $709 million.

• Pre-Earnings Indicator: The company has a positive Earnings ESP (+14.16%), which, combined with recent upward revisions in analyst forecasts, suggests a statistically higher chance of an earnings beat.

Key Metrics to Watch

Circle's revenue is fundamentally tied to its stablecoin reserves and prevailing interest rates. Investors must focus on:

USDC in Circulation: The growth of USDC, the underlying asset. The number was $$$61.3 billion at the end of Q2 and reportedly grew to $75.85 billion by late October. This growth drives reserve interest income.

Adjusted EBITDA & Margin: To gauge profitability excluding one-time IPO costs. Investors look for strong margins, confirming operational leverage.

Revenue Diversification: Updates on the Circle Payments Network (CPN) and other non-reserve income streams. Growth here is crucial to mitigate risk from future low interest rates.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity

High Volatility: The options market implies a significant post-earnings price move of approximately ±14.1%, indicating high risk and volatility.

Theme: A moderate earnings beat may lead to an initial spike followed by a "fade," as a strong performance is already partially priced in. A massive beat, particularly driven by unexpected growth in USDC circulation and revenue diversification, could lead to a substantial stock run. Conversely, any regulatory or competitive concerns could cause a sharp drop due to the company's premium valuation.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think CRCL would be able to provide earnings beat if USDC circulation shows an unexpected growth.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.