IBM Tests $300 Support, Momentum Cool but Uptrend Intact
$IBM(IBM)$
$306.38 (−1.93%): Pullback near highs; watch 300–312 as pivot (≈4% below 52-wk high)
Market Recap:
IBM closed at $306.38, down 1.93% on lighter-than-average volume (~4.15M vs ~5.40M). It sits ~4.1% below its 52-week high ($319.35) after a strong October/early-November run.
Price remains above both trend EMAs—EMA20 ≈ $298.6 and EMA50 ≈ $285.0—so the uptrend is intact but momentum cooled into the close.
Indicators & 1-week outlook:
MACD (12,26,9): line ≈ 8.50 vs signal ≈ 8.55, histogram slightly negative (~−0.05) → momentum flattening after a strong leg up rather than true downside acceleration.
RSI(14): ~60 → bullish-neutral, room before overbought.
Volume: below average → dip looks more like profit-taking than heavy distribution.
Set-ups & key levels:
Pivot zone: $300–$312 (last week’s congestion + round number + underside of minor resistance).
Supports: $300–296, then EMA20 $298–299; deeper pullback: EMA50 $285–286.
Resistances: $319–320 (52-wk high); breakout above opens $325–330.
Base case (next week): sideways-to-up while >$300/EMA20; a daily close < $298 would signal a deeper mean-revert toward $290–286.
Valuation glance:
TTM P/E ≈ 36.5 (Yahoo Finance today), a premium to the market’s mid-20s multiple; 1-yr Street target shown around $287, which lags price—tactical moves may dominate near term.
Strategy (tactical):
Momentum buy-on-dips: nibble $300–302 / $298 with a stop ~$294; first targets $312, then $319–320.
Breakout trade: add only on a decisive close > $320, target $325–330; invalidate on close back < $312.
Risk-managed trim: into $319–320 if momentum (MACD hist) stays negative.
Risk & Disclaimer:
Single-name tech/AI re-rating, macro prints, and broad-market swings can amplify gaps and reversals. This is technical commentary only, not investment advice. Use position sizing and stops appropriate to your circumstances.
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