NVIDIA Pauses Below $192 Ahead of Earnings
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$
$188.15 (+0.04%) — Post-rally digestion under 20-EMA; bulls need $192 reclaim to confirm rebound (support $185 / $175)
Market Recap
NVIDIA settled at $188.15 (+0.04%), trading between $178.91–$188.32 on moderate volume (~265 M shares). The stock remains ≈ 11% below its 52-week high of $212.19.
Key drivers:
(1) sector-wide cooling in AI-hardware names after October’s parabolic run;
(2) position trimming ahead of the Nov 19 earnings release;
(3) rotation from megacap tech to defensives following a sharp Treasury rebound.
Indicators & 1-week outlook
MACD (12,26,9) flat-to-bearish (histo ≈ –0.76) with lines at 3.38 / 4.14 → momentum loss after September’s rally. RSI (14) ≈ 47.9 sits neutral, tilted down; volume shows profit-taking but not capitulation.
Price compresses between EMA-20 $191.84 and EMA-50 $185.19 — a tight range often preceding breakout volatility. SAR remains below price supporting trend stability if $185 holds.
Base case (next week): sideways-to-up bias, expecting retest of $192–$195; bear case if daily close < $185 → pullback to $175–$178.
Key levels:
Support $185 / $173/ $164
Resistance $192 / $212.
Valuation:
P/E (TTM) ≈ 53.5×, > 2× S&P 500 average (~25×) but inline with AI-leadership premium. Consensus 12-mo target ≈ $229–$235, implying +22–25% upside.
Short-term target zone $195–$200 if momentum rebuilds above $192.
Risk & Disclaimer:
High beta; expect ±8–10% swing into earnings. Sector valuations remain extended, and export-control headlines can trigger sharp reversals. Technical commentary only — not investment advice. Data cross-checked with TradingView & Yahoo Finance (Nov 7 2025).
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