To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary:

I’m extremely confident that $RKLB’s retreat to the 50-day moving average at $49.44 represents a textbook buying opportunity, fuelled by the impending Neutron launch catalyst slated for Q4 2025 or early 2026, which could propel shares toward a 28.44 percent post-earnings surge reminiscent of last year’s explosive move. Historically, every test of $RKLB’s 50-day MA since 2022 has preceded a 25–30 percent rally within four weeks. With the stock slicing through prior resistance to test this resilient support level held firm since April 2025, volume spikes underscore panic buying below $50, aligning with broader structural trends in the $200 billion space economy where medium-lift reusability disrupts incumbents like SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Institutional flows remain robust, evidenced by a $1.067 billion contract backlog including the $515 million Space Development Agency deal, while insider sentiment, though mixed with CEO Peter Beck’s planned sales under a June 13 disclosure, bolsters conviction via strategic cash raises like the $750 million ATM offering that dilutes just 3 percent while ballooning liquidity to $1.4 billion. This isn’t fleeting hype; it’s Neutron’s reusability edge enabling $5.6 billion in National Security Space Launch eligibility, positioning $RKLB to outpace peers in a sector where tech earnings have sustained S&P 500 growth amid Fed rate pauses and geopolitical tailwinds from U.S. defence reallocations.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown:

Rocket Lab’s Q2 2025 results showcased record revenue of $144.5 million, surging 36 percent year-over-year from $106.25 million and beating consensus estimates by $9.09 million or 6.98 percent, driven by 11 Electron missions with a flawless 100 percent success rate and Space Systems segment growth outpacing Launch Services at 40 percent YoY. GAAP EPS clocked in at -$0.13, missing the -$0.09 forecast by 44.44 percent or $0.04, yet improving from last year’s -$0.08 amid elevated Neutron development costs; adjusted EPS aligned closer to normalised estimates of -$0.06, reflecting non-GAAP operating expenses of $86.9 million versus GAAP’s $106 million. EBITDA margins held negative at -128 percent but narrowed from prior quarters, with gross margins climbing to 28 percent on contribution from high-margin satellite components, while net income deepened to -$70.2 million on $350 million Neutron capex, offset by free cash flow burn of -$110 million annually against $754 million in cash equivalents post-equity raise. Segment-specific, Launch Services hit $62 million (up 22 percent YoY) on 70 cumulative Electron flights, while Space Systems exploded to $82.5 million (up 48 percent YoY) via reaction wheels and photon engines for Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. Consensus for Q3 2025 eyes $151.72 million revenue and -$0.10 EPS, with full-year 2025 projections at $579.17 million revenue (32.8 percent growth) and -$0.26 EPS, beating estimates in just one of the last four quarters but reaffirming guidance of $145–$155 million for Q3 and over 20 launches in 2025.

📘 Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) Quarterly Financial Report Analysis:

Forecast Data:

• Earnings Per Share (EPS):

– Forecast for Q3 2025: -$0.10

– Actual for Q3 2024: -$0.10

– Percentage Change: 0 percent

– Significance: EPS remains unchanged, indicating stable performance in terms of earnings per share compared with the same period last year.

• Total Revenue:

– Forecast for Q3 2025: $151,745,390

– Actual for Q3 2024: $104,808,000

– Percentage Change: 44.77 percent

– Significance: A strong increase in revenue suggests solid growth and effective market expansion.

• EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes):

– Forecast for Q3 2025: -$46,855,130

– Actual for Q3 2024: -$51,899,000

– Percentage Change: 9.72 percent

– Significance: The smaller negative EBIT indicates improved operational efficiency and cost control.

Quarterly Important News:

No significant company development or operational news was reported during the past quarter.

Forecast Viewpoints:

Current viewpoints on Rocket Lab USA, Inc.’s financial report are not available from relevant articles, reflecting limited analyst commentary ahead of the next earnings call.

Stock Trend Analysis (08 Nov 25 NZT / 07 Nov 25 ET):

– Latest Stock Price: $46.89 (closing range $46.87–$46.92 on 07 Nov 25 ET)

– Quarterly Price Fluctuation: -28.52 percent (from 30 Jun 25 close $65.61 to 07 Nov 25 close $46.89)

– Support Price: $47.00 (primary intra-day support at lower Bollinger band on 4H chart)

– Resistance Price: $54.00 (upper Keltner band and flag retest zone from early Nov 25)

– Evaluation: The stock has entered short-term oversold territory, falling 5.5 percent on the latest session to test the 50-day MA zone near $49.44. RSI levels on both 1-hour and 4-hour frames remain sub-20, indicating momentum exhaustion and the potential for a relief rebound if volume stabilises above $47. Technical compression between the 13 EMA and 21 EMA bands signals that a momentum reversal could trigger rapidly once buyers re-engage near $48–$50.

Options Large Order Analysis:

– Call Options (Bullish):

• RKLB 20251114 61.0 call (sell)

• RKLB 20251205 56.0 call (sell)

• RKLB 20251107 60.0 call (sell)

• RKLB 20251107 66.0 call (buy)

– Put Options (Bearish):

• RKLB 20251107 57.0 put (buy)

• RKLB 20251114 51.0 put (buy)

• RKLB 20251107 51.0 put (buy)

– Evaluation: Heavier put positioning suggests short-term bearish sentiment heading into earnings, implying investors anticipate volatility or a mild underperformance. However, longer-term call accumulation near $66 indicates confidence in Neutron’s medium-term catalyst potential.

Analyst Ratings and Target Price Forecast:

Rocket Lab currently carries a Buy consensus among 16 analysts, with 25 percent Strong Buy, 44 percent Buy, and 31 percent Hold, and no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The average price target, based on 13 analysts, is $57.93, implying 24.7 percent upside from the current $46.45, with a range between $45.00 and $83.00. Morgan Stanley maintains a Hold rating, while Robert W. Baird’s Peter Arment set an Outperform at $83 citing a 34 percent revenue CAGR through 2030. Needham reiterated Buy at $55 on 30 percent YoY earnings growth and a $1 billion backlog. ETF inclusion within ARKX (8.6 percent weighting alongside KTOS and AVAV) signals institutional conviction. Capital Wealth Planning has added new stakes, while insider sales remain limited to Beck’s pre-scheduled plan, not open-market disposals.

Conclusion:

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. demonstrates strong revenue expansion and operational efficiency improvements, though flat EPS and near-term bearish sentiment suggest cautious optimism. The stock’s undervaluation offers opportunity for investors willing to weather short-term turbulence in exchange for medium-term growth driven by Neutron’s development.

📉📈 Technical Setup:

The daily chart paints a classic bull flag consolidation after a 480 percent 12-month rally, with price action carving back to the 50-day MA at $49.44 as pivotal support, held since April 2025 amid a rising trend channel floor break that tempers but does not shatter the medium-term uptrend. RSI (14) at 46.6 signals neutral territory, far from overbought 70 plus zones and implying room for rebound without exhaustion, while the 1-hour RSI plunged to 16, flagging oversold conditions that scream “overdone” pullback ripe for snap-back. MACD (12, 26) shows the line above signal at 0.549 with histogram expanding positively, confirming bullish momentum despite a short-term curl-down risk; the 21 EMA at $52.10 crosses bullishly over the 50 DMA at $49.44, with price hugging the 20-day SMA retest in yellow for confluence. No overt wedge or cup-and-handle yet, but Keltner channels squeeze tightly around Bollinger Bands at two standard deviations, with lower band breach at $48.25 pre-market underscoring volatility. Pivot resistance looms at $54.00 (prior high), $56.90 (flag breakout), and $61.51 (recent close), targeting base $64 on 28.44 percent earnings pop or stretch $68–$83 on Neutron milestones, while volume on the dip validates panic buying below $50 as smart money accumulates.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context:

$RKLB thrives amid Fed policy pauses on rates, fostering capital for capex-heavy space plays, while geopolitical events like U.S. defence hikes under potential Trump-era “Smart Dollar” initiatives and $5.6 billion NSSL reallocations counter tariff risks on imports.

Importantly, Rocket Lab’s recent expansion of its Japanese partnerships underscores a new regional growth vector. The company signed an additional six dedicated launch missions with Japan’s Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space (iQPS) to deploy its Earth-imaging satellites, following the successful launch of the QPS-SAR-14 satellite on Rocket Lab’s 74th Electron mission. This builds on six previous dedicated launches and cements Rocket Lab’s role as a key enabler in Japan’s satellite-imaging infrastructure. These missions align with Japan’s broader JAXA-led commercialisation strategy, supporting private-sector collaboration in low Earth orbit imaging and reconnaissance.

This deepening Asia-Pacific footprint diversifies Rocket Lab’s customer base beyond the U.S., mitigates single-region dependency, and positions Neutron for dual-market utilisation once operational. The integration of Japanese contracts with its existing U.S. defence and European payload pipeline signals expanding revenue resilience across geopolitical cycles.

Sector comparisons reveal $RKLB outpacing $ASTS on revenue CAGR (36 percent vs nascent $50–$75 million H2 2025 guidance) and margins (28 percent gross vs ASTS’ pre-revenue burn), while trouncing $LUNR’s niche rover focus with 70 Electron launches versus LUNR’s IM-2 gamble. ETF rotations into ARKX (up 31.8 percent YTD on KTOS/RKLB/AVAV core) and UFO highlight fund reweightings away from underperformers like $SPCE, with global flows favouring U.S.-centric and now Japan-linked operators amid labour strikes in European peers and production shifts to Virginia. $RKLB’s 94 percent success rate and $1 billion backlog eclipse $RDW’s 2.67 percent UFO slice, positioning it as the vertically integrated leader in a fragmented market where tech earnings prop S&P 500 growth despite macro credit wobbles.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health:

Forward P/E stands unprofitable at N/A on -$0.26 FY 2025 EPS, but PEG compresses to 1.2 on 34 percent CAGR, undervalued against sector norms of 2.5. EV/EBITDA clocks negative at -83.84 reflecting -$184.95 million TTM EBITDA, yet EV/Revenue at 52 times trails $ASTS’ infinite pre-revenue multiple while premium to $LUNR’s 10 times on superior backlog. Price-to-FCF yields -2.1 percent on -$110 million burn, but $754 million cash dwarfs $0 debt for net cash position of $1.57 per share. Compared to Aerospace and Defence peers’ 10.6 times P/B, $RKLB’s 45.2 times appears over-extended yet justified by Neutron’s $14.5 billion medium-lift TAM by 2032 and projections for 15 plus launches annually post-2026, rendering current levels fair for a disruptor with 100 percent Electron reliability.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan:

As we head into the 10 Nov 25 earnings call, I’m positioning for volatility compression to reverse into a momentum ignition event. Buy aggressively on this 50-day MA hold, entering swings below $50 where panic buying thrives, with stop-loss at $46 (channel floor breach) to cap 7 percent downside. Base target $64 on Q3 earnings beat mirroring last year’s 28.44 percent pop, stretch $83 on Baird’s PT if Neutron static fires confirm Q4 timeline. Confirmation via volume surge above 22 million shares, breakout retest at $54, and call flow dominance. Upcoming catalysts cluster 10 Nov Q3 earnings call, Neutron stage qualifications, VICTUS HAZE mission, LOXSAT, and 31 Dec FCC expiry, plus rate decisions and Golden Dome bids.

🏁 Conclusion:

I’m convinced this dip isn’t a derailment but the gravity-assist slingshot propelling $RKLB into Neutron’s reusable orbit, where execution eclipses the stars and early movers claim the cosmos. If Neutron delivers reusability at one-third Falcon 9’s cost, what valuation ceiling can still hold Rocket Lab back?

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Revenue: $144.5M Q2 2025 (+36% YoY), beat by $9.09M; Q3 guidance $145–$155M.

• EPS: -$0.13 Q2 (miss by $0.04 vs. -$0.09 est.), FY 2025 est. -$0.26 on $579.17M rev.

• RSI: 46.6 daily (neutral rebound setup), 16 on 1hr (oversold overdone signal).

• Baird PT: $83, Outperform initiation; consensus $59.64 (+20.7% upside).

• Backlog: $1.067B incl. $515M SDA; 70 Electron launches, 100% 2025 success.

• Support: 50-day MA $49.44 held since April; MACD bullish at 0.549.

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