To The Moon

$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ 

I’ve navigated more market cyclones than I care to count over my 25 years in the trenches, and this shutdown hits different; day 37 as of November 7, 2025, officially the longest in U.S. history, eclipsing the 35-day 2018–19 saga. It’s not mere political theatre; it’s a liquidity vacuum sucking billions from circulation, hammering consumer sentiment, and stressing essential services. Yet I’ve seen these storms before, and they always break, unleashing pent-up flows that propel defensives first, then growth with serious velocity. Prediction markets flipped hard overnight; Polymarket and Kalshi now price 62–68% probability of a resolution by November 15, up sharply after Trump’s breakfast summit lit a fire under GOP senators.

🏛️ Political Battlefield: Trump’s Filibuster Gambit and Democratic Fractures

President Trump summoned Republican senators for a White House strategy session, pushing hard to eliminate the filibuster and force a clean continuing resolution through. Democrats are digging in over expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, but cracks are forming. Moderates eye quick deals while progressives demand more. Senate Democrats huddled November 6 under mounting pressure, with leaders like Schumer facing internal fractures. Trump blames Democrats squarely, and post-election fallout has GOP ranks energized; new polls show blame shifting and odds of a GOP-favorable deal rising fast. I’m watching for a 45–60-day CR mid-month, aligning with Trump’s push and climbing market probabilities around November 13–15.

✈️ FAA Meltdown: 10% Flight Cuts at 40 Airports, Refunds Mandated

At 00:01 EST, the FAA’s mandate took effect; capacity was slashed by 10% across 40 major airports including ATL, DFW, LAX, ORD, JFK, DEN, SEA, and MIA to ease strain on unpaid controllers. United Airlines kept long-haul routes intact but trimmed domestic and regional operations; all passengers, even non-refundable, are eligible for full refunds. Over 3.2 million travellers have already been affected since October 1. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned of “rolling brown-outs” in airspace sectors if the stalemate drags on. Travel stocks are feeling the pressure, but history says the rebound will be swift; airline baskets have averaged 18% rallies in the first month after shutdowns end.

📊 Macro Toll: GDP Drag, CBO Loss Estimates, and History’s Playbook

The CBO projects a 1–2% GDP drag for Q4 if the shutdown stretches eight weeks, equivalent to $520 million per day in lost economic activity and a potential permanent hit of $18.2 billion if it runs to December 1. SNAP benefits remain at 65% for November, food banks are overwhelmed, and Head Start closures now exceed 60,000 children. Yet markets have shrugged off every prior closure. The S&P 500 has never been lower 90 days after any of the 21 prior shutdowns, averaging +9.4%, with a median +11.8% gain. The S&P 500 typically finishes flat during closures, +5.8% after three months, and +15.2% one year post-resolution. Even 2018–19’s 35-day standoff ended with the S&P up 10% and the VIX plunging. Liquidity squeezes flip to liquidity surges, and the rotation always arrives faster than traders expect.

💰 Defensive Anchor: Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B / $BRK.A)

Berkshire remains my fortress in the storm. Q3 operating earnings rose 34% to $13.5B, and Buffett’s record $381.7B cash hoard is dry powder for a wave of bargains. He also quietly sold $9B of Apple stock in Q3 to raise that cash pile higher. $BRK.B trades near $477.54 (+0.7%), holding its 50-day MA (~$480), RSI steady at 55, and MACD momentum strengthening with a histogram rising for seven straight sessions. A May cup-and-handle formation targets $550+, with UBS projecting $597 medium term. Hedge funds have expanded Berkshire holdings from 125 to 133 funds this year, and options flow leans bullish toward December $500 calls. The volume shelf at $488 held perfectly through last week’s volatility. With insurance, rail, and energy buffering macro shocks, I’m accumulating on dips below $480.

💻 Growth Catalyst: Invesco QQQ Trust ($QQQ)

$QQQ trades around $617.10 (–1.2%), off its highs but maintaining structural integrity. Liquidity stress and delayed data created temporary weakness, but the setup remains constructive. RSI is neutral near 56, MACD hints reversal, and the $600–605 zone is firm support. A breakout above $626 confirms renewed momentum, unlocking upside toward $670+. Tech remains resilient, with 70 of 100 Nasdaq heavyweights beating Q3 earnings, and AI capex trends holding firm. Shutdown resolution is the spark that brings back algorithmic buying, and QQQ is my lever for the post-deal rebound.

🔑 Triggers I’m Tracking Closely

🕐 Resolution timeline: Mid-November odds are climbing. A clean CR triggers a 3–7% broad rally; defensives lead, tech surges 8–12%.

💸 $BRK.B: Accumulate on sub-$480 dips; short-term target $550, extended $597.

📈 $QQQ: Defend $600 support; breakout above $626 confirms the next leg higher.

✈️ Airlines: Relief rally play with $DAL/$AAL/$UAL historically averaging 18% monthly gains post-shutdowns.

🏦 Liquidity flip: Each week of closure drains $50–70B, reopening injects instantly. The S&P has averaged +13% nine months after prior shutdowns.

💡 Forward rotation: Add defensives pre-deal ($BRK.B, utilities), rotate to growth post-deal ($QQQ, semis), and watch for VIX sub-20 to confirm the all-clear.

💡 My Takeaway: Position Before the Relief Explosion

Every shutdown I’ve traded has ended the same way; fear peaks, liquidity rushes back, and markets roar. This record-breaker will be no exception. I’m positioned across defensives and growth to ride both waves when the taps reopen. History doesn’t just rhyme; it compounds.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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