I've been staring at my DBS and UOB charts all afternoon, and honestly, the contrast is jarring. DBS $DBS Group Holdings(D05.SI)$
The numbers tell two different stories about 2026. DBS says its total income next year will hover around 2025 levels even with "rate headwinds," and its net interest margin only slipped 15 bps to 1.96%. UOB, on the other hand, is already warning that 2026 NIM will be lower than the 1.82% it just posted. Translation: DBS has locked in higher-yielding assets longer; UOB is still carrying shorter-duration paper that's rolling off into a lower-rate world.
What spooked me about UOB is the credit-provision surge. That 72% profit collapse wasn't just NIM compression; it was a deliberate kitchen-sink of loan-loss reserves. I've seen this movie before—banks front-load pain when they smell trouble in property or China. DBS, meanwhile, kept provisions flat. Either Wee Ee Cheong sees storm clouds I don't, or Piyush Gupta is the luckiest CFO in Southeast Asia.
For my own portfolio, I'm tilting heavier into DBS. I like that its wealth-management engine is still firing (fee income up 20%), and its Hong Kong and China books are growing faster than UOB's. Yes, the share price cracked S$55 today, but the forward dividend yield is still 4.8% and the buyback machine is running. UOB yields more, sure, but I'd rather sleep than guess when those provisions reverse.
Bottom line: 2026 will be harsher for the laggard than the leader. I'm keeping my DBS stake, trimming UOB to a 2% position, and parking the proceeds in the DBS 4.3% perp that still trades 30 bps wide of fair value. If the NIM gap stays this wide, the market will keep paying me to own the stronger horse.
As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.
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- flipzy·11-07TOPYou've made some astute observations1Report