BTS
2025-11-05

A mature bull market phase means big gains are likely behind, but the uptrend may not end immediately

The recent pullback could be a healthy consolidation rather than the start of a downtrend, but the risk of a trend reversal is higher due to elevated valuations, liquidity strains, concentrated leadership, and the contrarian flag raised by Michael Burry

Massive put positions on Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) signal a bet against AI-inflated valuations, with a potential sharp decline triggering broader volatility, making it not quite a 'Big Short 2.0”。。。

US stocks may rise further, but with increased volatility and limited upside unless a new catalyst emerges, and downside risk is significant

In short, balance is key : stay diversified, vigilant about valuations and liquidity, focus on hedging, and view the pullback as an opportunity to reposition rather than exit the market entirely

Tag :@Huat99  @Snowwhite  

Michael Burry Shorts AI Giants: Will This Pullback End 6-Month Bull Run?

@Tiger_comments：
US stocks began falling in pre-market trading, with $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ both down more than 1%. Does this sudden early-month drop feel familiar? In August and September, the market also fell on the first trading day of the month. October was different — the drop came on Oct 10, when Trump once again threatened new tariffs. Now it’s the second trading day of November: Is this just a normal minor pullback, or the end of the six-month rally? “The Big Short”, Michael Burry, is shorting $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ — two of the biggest names in the AI frenzy, making up 80% of his short positions. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s veteran bull Ed Yardeni issued a rare warning: “The S&P 500 may fall 5% before year-end — extreme bullish sentiment is flashing red.” In the past seven weeks, retail bullish sentiment has exceeded the long-term average five times. The S&P 500 is up 37% in six months, a rally that has happened only five times since 1950. 💧Even more worrying: liquidity is drying up. On Oct 31, US overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) jumped 18 bps to 4.22%, the largest one-day increase in a year. The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) usage hit a record high, signaling tightening bank liquidity. As one analyst put it: “The Treasury has drained $700 billion of cash — like multiple rate hikes combined.” Money in the system is shrinking, yet the AI dream burns even hotter. Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that speculative themes like quantum computing, nuclear energy, and rare earths all plunged — “Today feels like everyone’s selling everything except the Mag 7, which are still holding up the index.” Goldman also projects that the five AI giants (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL) will increase capital expenditures from $314 billion to $518 billion by 2026, up 65% in just 10 months. But suddenly, investors have pulled back from that 2026 optimism. 💭 Discussion: Do you think this pullback is just a short pause, or a trend reversal? Could Burry’s “short AI” bet become The Big Short 2.0? With liquidity tightening and sentiment overheating, how much longer can U.S. stocks keep rising? Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Michael Burry Shorts AI Giants: Will This Pullback End 6-Month Bull Run?

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  • Mortimer Arthur
    ·2025-11-07
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    PLTR will see sub $100 again. Remember who is shorting this. JP morgan, Morgan Stanley and a host of hedge funds. Markets are about see a crash in coming weeks so stay tune.

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      [smile]
      2025-11-08
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  • Venus Reade
    ·2025-11-07
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    Nvidia will be over $220 shortly.
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    • BTS: 
      [smile]
      2025-11-08
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  • richegg
    ·2025-11-06
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    Your insights on balance and diversification resonate.
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    • BTS: 
      [smile]
      2025-11-08
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