McDonald’s Gains 1% as $295 Support Anchors 290–310 Range
$McDonald's(MCD)$
$299.21 (+0.96%): Pre-earnings defensive bounce as $295 floor steadies 290–310 range
Market Recap:
McDonald’s closed at $299.21, up +0.96% on the day, modestly positive YTD (~3%) and about 8% below its 52-week high near $326.32.
A bid into the print on Nov 5 reflects rotation back into low-beta, cash-flow–rich defensives as rate volatility lingers.
Volume (~4.0M vs ~3.0M average) picked up, suggesting some pre-earnings positioning rather than a purely technical bounce.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
MACD remains slightly negative but is flattening, hinting that downside momentum is losing steam; RSI(14) has turned up from low-40s to the mid-40s, moving away from oversold but not yet in bullish territory.
Price is still below the 20- and 50-day EMAs ($302.9 / $303.8), so the short-term trend is sideways-to-soft within a broader multi-month range.
Over the next week, base case is consolidation between $295–305: a close above $305–307 would open room toward $312–318, while failure back below $293 would put $290 then $285 in play.
Support: $295
Resistance: $312
Valuation and Target Range:
MCD trades at ~25.6× TTM earnings, roughly in line with its own mid-20s historical band and a touch below the S&P 500’s high-20s multiple, supported by a 2.5% forward dividend yield and strong franchise cash generation.
Street 12-month consensus around $330 implies mid-teens upside if comps and margin execution remain resilient; near term, a reasonable technical target on a constructive earnings reaction is the $310–320 zone, while a disappointing guide could quickly drag the stock back toward the high-280s range.
Risk Statement:
Results and guidance, FX moves, consumer-spending trends, food-cost inflation and franchise health can all drive large moves around earnings. This note is for technical reference only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Data Source: Yahoo Finance & TradingView (daily chart, Nov 4 2025). Prepared by Tiger Morning Brief | All data as of Nov 4 2025 | For internal use only.
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