UPST Slips Toward $45 Support as Downtrend Persists Ahead of Earnings
$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$
$46.24 (−2.61%): AI lender grinds along downtrend as $45–42 band turns into make-or-break zone
Market Recap (as of Nov 4 2025):
Upstart Holdings closed at $46.24, down −2.6% on the day and roughly −24.9% YTD, leaving the stock about 52% below its 52-week high of $96.41 despite this year’s brief summer squeeze.
The session saw price trade between $45.31 and $47.41, with volume around 10.4M shares — roughly 1.4× its 7.4M average — signalling active de-risking rather than sleepy drift.
With earnings due on Nov 4 and the name still carrying a high-beta, “story stock” reputation in AI-driven consumer credit, investors are demanding more proof of durable profitability before re-rating the shares.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
On the daily chart, UPST remains in a clear downtrend: price sits below both the 20-day EMA ($50.33) and 50-day EMA ($55.49), which are sloping lower and acting as dynamic resistance.
MACD lines are still negative (around −2.6/−2.7) but the histogram has just ticked slightly positive, hinting at early—but very tentative—momentum stabilization. RSI(14) near 38 is in bearish territory but not yet deeply oversold, suggesting more of a slow grind than a capitulation flush.
Over the next week, base case is choppy trading in a weak range between $44–50: a firm close back above $50 (and the 20-day EMA) would be the first sign of repair, opening room toward $55–60, while a breakdown through $44–42 risks a slide toward the high-30s and eventually the $31–32 52-week low.
Support: $43-45
Resistance: $50/$55
Valuation and Target Range:
UPST currently prints a slightly negative TTM P/E (≈−0.05), in sharp contrast to the S&P 500’s high-20s multiple, underscoring that the market is valuing it on revenue growth and option-value rather than earnings.
Consensus 12-month target around $74–75 implies substantial upside if credit performance and funding-partner growth track management’s AI-driven thesis;
Technically, a constructive earnings reaction that reclaims the $55–60 region would set up a medium-term recovery path toward the low-70s, while a guidance disappointment could just as easily push the stock back toward the low-40s or 30s.
Risk Statement:
UPST is a high-volatility fintech name exposed to macro conditions, funding costs, credit performance, regulation and sentiment toward AI/consumer credit; price swings can be sudden and large, especially around earnings. This note is for technical reference only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Data Source: Yahoo Finance & TradingView (daily chart, Nov 4 2025). Prepared by Tiger Morning Brief | All data as of Nov 4 2025 | For internal use only.
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