IREN: AI Megadeal Gap-Up, Choppy Range Ahead
$IREN Ltd(IREN)$
$67.75 (+11.52%): AI megadeal gap-up, but 10% below highs inside a choppy $60–75 band
Market Recap (as of Oct 31, 2025):
IREN Limited closed at $67.75, up +11.52% on the day, after gapping higher on news of a $9.7B, five-year AI infrastructure contract with Microsoft for Nvidia GPUs, which cements IREN as a key AI data-center capacity provider.
The move came on ~80M shares, more than 2× its average volume, and leaves the stock roughly 10.5% below its 52-week high near $75.7.
Despite the intraday selloff from an open above $73, YTD performance is extraordinary (~+590%), driven by the pivot from pure Bitcoin mining toward high-margin AI cloud capacity.
Valuation is now stretched: Yahoo Finance shows a TTM P/E around 174x, while Reuters cites forward P/E near 86x, versus the S&P 500 at roughly 30x trailing or ~23x forward, several turns richer than broad-market and infrastructure peers.
Technical Indicators Analysis:
Technically, price remains in a steep uptrend above the 20-day EMA (~$58.8) and 50-day EMA (~$48.4), but today’s long-wick candle from $75.7 down to $67.8 signals profit-taking into resistance.
MACD (≈4.35 vs 5.00 signal, histogram -0.64) shows waning upside momentum, while RSI ~63 is bullish but shy of overbought, arguing for high-volatility consolidation rather than a clean breakout.
With volume spiking, a reasonable one-week base case is a $60–75 trading range: dips toward $62–59 (gap zone and 20-day EMA) are first support, then $52–58(prior breakout / 50-day EMA); resistance sits at $73–76, then an extension zone around $82–85 if buyers re-attack highs.
On valuation, the stock already prices in aggressive AI growth; Street targets are dispersed (e.g., one broker lifting to $94, another cutting to $45), underscoring uncertainty.
From a purely technical lens, upside toward $80–85 over the next few weeks is possible if $75 is reclaimed on strong volume, while a loss of $58 would tilt the risk toward a deeper mean-reversion back into the low-50s.
Risk Disclaimer: This commentary is for informational and technical-reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or a solicitation to trade any security.
Prices and data are as of the latest daily close shown (Nov 3, 2025) and may change; always conduct your own research and manage position sizing and risk accordingly.
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