To The Moon

I've been watching AMD climb from $160 to $260 in what feels like one long, caffeine-fueled sprint, and honestly, my finger is hovering over the "sell" button. Don't get me wrong—the OpenAI partnership is real, the MI300 orders are real, and the AI hype is real. But $300 by Christmas? That's the kind of target you scribble on a napkin after three IPAs, not the kind you tattoo on your portfolio. I'm staying long-term bullish $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  $GRANITESHARES 2X LONG AMD DAILY ETF(AMDL)$  , yet right now the chart is screaming "pause."

Every time I zoom out, I see the same pattern: a parabolic move, a 15–20 % exhale, then the next leg. We're overdue for that exhale. RSI is kissing 80, the Bollinger Bands are stretched tighter than my jeans after Thanksgiving, and the VIX just woke up from its nap. A healthy pullback to the $220–$230 zone would flush out the weak hands, recharge the trend, and give the earnings call something to actually beat. I'd rather buy that dip than chase this rip.

Tuesday's print will be the moment of truth. If revenue pops and guidance rhymes with "we're the new AVGO," I'll happily eat crow and reload on any weakness. But if the guide is "in line" or "we're still ramping," the algos will hit the eject button faster than you can say "margin compression." Bears are already circling with the "it's priced to perfection" thesis, and for once I think they've got a point. Perfection rarely ships on time.

So here's my plan: I trimmed 30 % of my position into Friday's close and parked the cash in a 4-week T-bill. If we open Tuesday above $265 and guidance slays, I'm back in before the echo fades. If we gap down and slice through $245, I'll start nibbling at $230, $215, and $200—same shares I just sold, only cheaper and with better sleep. Either way, I'm not marrying the $300 dream; I'm dating the setup.

Bottom line: AMD will prove itself, just not on this candle. Let the stock catch its breath, let the institutions reload, and let the AI story marinate. I'll be waiting at the 50-day with a coffee and a bid, smiling either way. See you at $300—eventually.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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