To The Moon

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 earnings on Monday, November 3, 2025, after the U.S. market close.

I have a long-term position on Palantir which I believe it could be making another new highs for upcoming earnings.

Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis & Key Expectations

The consensus among analysts points to continued strong growth, but Palantir's current valuation sets a very high bar for the company to clear.

Expected Financial Metrics (Consensus Estimates)

Key Factors Driving the Narrative

AI Platform (AIP) Momentum: The explosive adoption of Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), particularly in the U.S. Commercial segment, is the primary growth engine. The company needs to show that this momentum is accelerating or, at least, being sustained.

High Valuation: PLTR's stock has surged over 150% year-to-date, leading to a valuation that is significantly higher than its peers (e.g., forward P/E ratio is around 229x). This means anything less than a significant beat and a raised outlook could trigger a sharp correction.

Margin Pressure: Management previously warned that expenses would surge in Q3 due to a ramp-up in hiring, which may put pressure on the operating margin despite revenue growth.

Palantir's Q2 2025 earnings reported on August 4, 2025, showed a significant acceleration in key growth areas.

Here is a summary write-up of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fiscal Q2 2025 earnings and the key lesson learned from the accompanying guidance.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Palantir delivered a strong beat across its top and bottom lines for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025, with revenues surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time. The results highlighted a dramatic acceleration in its core U.S. business, particularly the commercial segment, which is being driven by the adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).

Key Financial Highlights (Q2 2025)

The company's strong performance was underscored by its Rule of 40 score (revenue growth rate + adjusted operating margin), which climbed to an exceptional 94% in the quarter, indicating a highly profitable growth trajectory.

Lesson Learned from the Guidance

The core lesson learned from Palantir's substantially raised full-year 2025 guidance is the unprecedented, accelerating demand for AI solutions in the U.S. commercial sector, which has become the primary catalyst for the company's growth.

Key Guidance Revisions (Full-Year 2025)

The Lesson: AI Platform (AIP) is an immediate, high-growth revenue driver

The significant increase in the full-year outlook, particularly the massive increase in U.S. Commercial Revenue guidance to at least 85% growth, strongly suggests that the company's strategy around its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is working better and faster than even management anticipated.

Pivot Success: The results validate Palantir's successful pivot to make its technology accessible and quickly deployable to a broader range of U.S. commercial customers.

AI Adoption: The speed and scale of the guidance raises teach the lesson that enterprise AI adoption is not a slow, long-term trend for Palantir, but an immediate, multi-billion-dollar revenue accelerant as companies quickly implement AIP to leverage AI capabilities across their operations.

Decoupling from Government: While government contracts remain crucial, the stellar U.S. Commercial growth signals that Palantir is diversifying its revenue base and is now fundamentally a high-growth, AI-first commercial software company, diminishing the long-standing investor concern about its reliance on government contracts.

In essence, the lesson is that Palantir has effectively captured the initial surge in enterprise-level AI demand, turning the adoption of its platform into a hyper-growth engine for its U.S. Commercial business.

Here is a breakdown of the recent analyst rating updates, significant contract announcements, and the revenue contribution from the U.S. Commercial and U.S. Government segments, based on the most recent available data (primarily Q2 2025 results and Q3 2025 previews).

Recent Analyst Ratings and Updates (Late October 2025)

Ahead of the Q3 2025 earnings report (expected around November 3rd, 2025), analyst sentiment is generally cautious due to Palantir's already lofty valuation following a massive stock run-up in 2025.

Consensus Rating: The consensus rating among analysts is currently Hold.

One source shows an analyst breakdown of: Strong Buy (11%), Buy (11%), Hold (61%), Sell (17%).

Price Targets: A consensus price target is around $144.33, though new targets are being set near the current trading levels.

Citi Analyst Update: Citi analyst Tyler Radke maintained a Neutral rating but boosted his price target to $190 (from $177). He anticipates a strong quarter but warned that the beat and raise might be "more modest" than the "uncharacteristically large" one in Q2 2025.

Key Analyst Focus: The main theme is whether the anticipated strong earnings growth (driven by the Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP) can justify the stock's high valuation multiples.

Recent Significant Contract Announcements

Palantir has continued to announce strategic partnerships and significant deals, particularly centered around its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP):

Deep Breakdown of Q2 2025 U.S. Revenue Segments

Palantir's second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025, ended June 30, 2025) was a landmark quarter, surpassing $1 billion in total quarterly revenue for the first time. The domestic performance, especially in Commercial, was the standout story.

Key Takeaways from the Segment Breakdown:

Explosive U.S. Commercial Growth: The 93% Y/Y growth in U.S. Commercial revenue was the clear highlight, widely attributed to the rapid adoption and deployment of Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). This segment is growing faster than any other and is the primary driver of Palantir's diversification narrative.

Strong U.S. Government Performance: The U.S. Government segment also showed robust growth at 53% Y/Y, remaining the single largest revenue stream at $426 million. This is a critical base of stable, large contracts.

Domestic Dominance: U.S. revenue as a whole accounted for approximately three-quarters of Palantir's total revenue, underscoring the company's strong, AI-driven momentum in its home market.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Beyond the headline numbers (Revenue and EPS), investors should focus on the following core metrics which reveal the health and future trajectory of the business:

1. Segment Revenue Growth & Mix

U.S. Commercial Revenue Growth: This is the most critical metric. Q2 saw a massive 93% YoY surge, largely driven by AIP adoption. Investors will be watching for a continuation of this high growth rate as evidence that the AIP platform is successfully broadening Palantir's addressable market beyond its traditional government base.

Consensus Estimate: $493.7 million (approx 55.6% YoY growth)

Government Revenue Growth: While U.S. Commercial is the focus, the stable, large-contract Government segment remains the largest revenue source. Any sign of material slowing, or commentary on impacts from government-related issues (like potential shutdowns), could worry investors.

Consensus Estimate: approx $602.5 million (approx 47.6% YoY growth)

2. Commercial Customer Acquisition

Commercial Customer Count: An increase in the number of commercial customers is a direct measure of market penetration and the adoption of the "land and expand" strategy, especially with the newer, faster-deploying AIP.

Total Contract Value (TCV) & Remaining Deal Value (RDV): These metrics provide a forward-looking view of the revenue pipeline. Strong growth in TCV and RDV, especially in the Commercial segment, signals robust future growth and customer commitment.

3. Profitability and Guidance

Adjusted Operating Margin: Given the planned Q3 hiring, investors will look to see if margin compression is manageable and aligns with management's commentary. Sustained high margins demonstrate the scalability of the software model.

Full-Year 2025 Guidance: The most significant potential catalyst post-earnings will be management's updated outlook for full-year revenue and operating income. A materially raised full-year guidance is likely necessary to sustain the current stock valuation.

Palantir (PLTR) Price Target

Based on 22 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Palantir Technologies in the last 3 months. The average price target is $154.93 with a high forecast of $215.00 and a low forecast of $45.00. The average price target represents a -20.36% change from the last price of $194.55.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity Post-Earnings

Trading around earnings is inherently high-risk, especially for a volatile, high-valuation stock like PLTR. The stock's post-earnings movement is likely to be binary and extreme.

Potential Scenarios for Trading

Important Note for Short-Term Trading: The stock's current rich valuation means the risk is heavily skewed to the downside if they fail to deliver extraordinary results. Traders must be prepared for extreme volatility and rapid shifts in price. Given the high expectations, a "sell-the-news" event, even on a slight beat, is a possibility.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The bulls have managed to make an upside move after some consolidation period, and PLTR is currently trading above the 26-EMA, and with the high expectations for strong growth from its AIP and commercial segment, the RSI momentum remains positive, but we need to be prepared for high volatility.

As per last earnings result released we saw that PLTR have make a nice surge rally only to see decline after some time, so I will continue to hold on to my existing shares and maybe look to play options instead.

Summary

A summary of the analysis for Palantir Technologies (PLTR) fiscal Q3 2025 earnings indicates high expectations, primarily driven by strong growth in its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) and the Commercial segment.

• Analyst Estimates: The consensus forecast is for revenue to be around $1.09 - $1.1 billion, representing over 50% year-over-year growth. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to be approximately $0.17, a significant increase from the prior year.

• Key Drivers: Growth is anticipated in both the Government and Commercial sectors, with the latter expected to post higher growth rates, fueled by the adoption of AIP.

• Valuation Concern: Despite the strong business momentum, the stock is considered to have a lofty valuation after surging over 150% year-to-date. This high valuation leaves little room for error, as any sign of slowing growth could lead to a sharp sell-off.

• Management Guidance: The company previously guided for a sequential quarterly revenue growth, but analyst estimates are currently slightly higher than the high end of that guidance, setting a challenging bar for performance.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think PLTR would provide an earnings surprise with strong growth from AIP and the commerical segment.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.