To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ I’m watching markets reset credibility in real time as we head toward the 29 Oct 25 Federal Reserve meeting. Fed funds futures now embed a 99 % probability of a 25 bps cut, lowering the band to 3.75–4.00 %, with an 87.9 % chance of another in December. Despite headline CPI rising 3.0 % y/y, the highest in 16 months, core came in at 0.3 % m/m, landing perfectly in JPMorgan’s “welcome-respite” zone that historically drives +0.75 % to +1.25 % SPX gains. We got exactly that +0.6 % pop. Services inflation remains sticky at 5.2 %, goods -0.1 %, and that mismatch is why I expect a temporary flush before policy anchors sentiment. I’m treating this week as the pivot: liquidity drains now, then November becomes the launch pad.

💰 Global Capital Flood: Repricing Risk Appetite in Real Time

Flows confirm the story. Bloomberg and EPFR data show a US$1.1 trillion surge into cash, US$693 billion into equities, US$415 billion into bonds, and US$108 billion into gold. That’s not rotation; it’s a structural repricing of risk appetite. EPFR tracked US equity inflows of US$25 billion last week, the largest since January, and EM debt regained US$5.2 billion after China’s US$500 billion credit injection. IMF’s World Economic Outlook pegs 2025 global GDP at 3.2 %, slightly below this year’s 3.3 %, but US growth still around 2.5 %. AI optimism, yield compression and policy uncertainty are re-wiring correlations across asset classes. I secured 15 % gains on QQQ calls after the CPI relief rally but trimmed half; lower yields are lifting everything from tech to cyclicals without selectivity. I scale only when weekly liquidity spikes above US$1 trillion.

📊 Volatility Smiles and Skew Steepening

I lean hard into options flow for edges, and the SPX smile’s steepening this week has me on high alert. Put premiums surged 12 % as institutions hedge the Fed–earnings cocktail, pushing the VIX to 18.2 from 16.5. Implied volatility skew hit 113.7, per Unusual Whales data, with downside puts 25 % richer than calls, signaling desks like Goldman prepping for a 1.5 % flush. I read this as aggressive protection, not panic; once the curve flattens post-Fed, it’ll confirm the purge is spent.

Current SPX at 6 643 means I’m eyeing re-entry at 6 400–6 500, where gamma walls cluster around SPY 670 equivalent. Short interest sits elevated at 2.1 % of float across the index, per Nasdaq, but options flow tells the real story: $13 million in NVDA short-dated calls traded in the first 10 minutes yesterday, driving the stock to $185.62 on AI momentum. I exploit this by selling premium on high-IV names; I pocketed $2 500 on VFC straddles yesterday, where implied moves price a 12 % swing post-earnings. No robotic hedges here; I own my trades, layering in conditional iron condors that trigger only if VIX spikes above 20.

JPMorgan’s latest sentiment index now shows froth levels back at 2020 extremes, where crowded long and low-profitability trades typically mark the latter innings of the rally. That aligns with what I’m seeing: volatility skew steepening, liquidity tight, but no capitulation. The setup suits contrarians; I’m scaling short volatility in targeted names once implieds exceed 1.5× realized.

🔥 Implied Earnings Inferno

The options market’s pricing an inferno for this week’s reports, and I navigate it with precision to avoid the bonfire. Implied moves scream double-digit volatility for VFC (+/−11.5 %), W (+/−9.2 %), SOFI (+/−13.0 %), JBLU (+/−10.8 %), ENPH (+/−12.3 %), ETSY (+/−11.7 %), TDOC (+/−12.7 %), CVNA (+/−14.2 %), RBLX (+/−10.5 %), AAP (+/−9.8 %), NET (+/−11.9 %), RKT (+/−12.4 %), LUMN (+/−15.1 %), ROKU (+/−14.2 %), RIOT (+/−9.9 %), and RDDT (+/−13.5 %), per SpotGamma’s Oct 27–31 chart.

The Mag7 piles on: GOOGL (+/−6.4 %), MSFT (+/−4.8 %), AAPL (+/−4.0 %), AMZN (+/−6.9 %), META (+/−8.2 %). I hold no new longs until Nov 1; historically, post-Oct panic yields November’s strongest monthly gains, averaging +3.2 % since 1950. I let weak hands exhaust: yesterday’s flush liquidated US$19 billion in leverage, per Alaric Securities, but I bought the dip in ROKU calls at US$75 strike, pricing a 14 % move that aligns with last quarter’s 16 % beat.

Beneath the surface, breadth remains impressive: 84 % of S&P 500 companies reporting this week beat EPS estimates, while 77 % topped revenue. That consistency offsets short-term crowding fears and underpins my November rebound thesis. Sector catalysts fuel this: ENPH’s solar subsidies under tariffs could surprise, while RIOT’s Bitcoin holdings shine if BTC holds $100K. I execute straddles on these, targeting 20 % ROI on IV crush, and track flow: US$700 million in put buying on LUMN yesterday screamed capitulation. This super-cycle isn’t fluff; it’s me capitalizing on mispriced fear before the rebound.

🧭 Macro Guidepost: CPI Scenarios and Policy Uncertainty

I’ve watched markets reset credibility this week as we barrel toward the 29 Oct 25 Federal Reserve meeting, and the tension feels palpable. Fed funds futures now embed a 99 % probability of that 25 bps cut, dropping the target range to 3.75–4.00 %, up from the 94.6 % I noted earlier in the month. I base this on the latest CME FedWatch data as of 24 Oct; traders aren’t flinching despite September’s CPI ticking up to 3.0 % year on year, the highest level in 16 months per the BLS release delayed by the government shutdown.

Core CPI rose 0.3 % month on month, cooler than the expected hotter print, which fueled a quick rally in the S&P 500 to close at 6 643.70 on Friday. That print landed right in JPMorgan’s “welcome respite” scenario, where a 0.24–0.28 % core move historically drives +0.75 % to +1.25 % SPX gains, and we saw exactly that: a 0.59 % pop. I adjust my base case accordingly; only a 5 % chance of a scorching 0.4 %+ core CPI would’ve derailed this, but it didn’t.

Still, I expect December’s additional 25 bps cut, priced at 87.9 %, to hold unless tariffs spike energy costs further. This isn’t blind optimism; it’s me weighing sticky services inflation at 5.2 % against cooling goods inflation at −0.1 %. I hedge my core positions with SPX puts below 6 500 because historical parallels to 2019’s early cuts show short-term flushes before sustained rallies. This week is the inflection; liquidity drains now, but November brings the expansion phase as policy anchors sentiment and global capital flow synchronises.

JPMorgan’s matrix still frames my macro base case: a 0.3 % core print boosts SPX +0.75 % to +1.25 %, with only 5 % odds of a 0.4 %+ scorcher derailing the Fed. Tariffs could add 0.07 % to core via household goods, per Goldman, but China’s US$500 billion credit expansion and BRICS banks buying 1 100 tonnes of gold offset the tightening. Global growth projections at 3.2 % signal slowdown without stall. I hedge with 10 % gold exposure and USD puts against a 95 DXY target. This is macro management, not speculation.

📈 Tech Pulse: Where Fundamentals Meet Flow

I dissect tech fundamentals against flow, and the pulse is accelerating. HSBC hiked GOOGL to $295 from $263, projecting $10 billion FY26 Cloud revenue from the Anthropic TPU deal, per their Oct 23 note. I bought in at $260, up 8 % now, as ad revenue accelerates 12 % YoY. NVDA’s call flow exploded $13 million short-dated, pushing shares to $185.62; I track net drift premiums at +$2.50, confirming momentum.

MSFT coils pre-Azure print, with Cantor Fitzgerald lifting to $639 on 34 % Cloud growth to $75 billion FY25. META justifies its 28× forward P/E with 10 %+ ad growth; Citi’s $75 target calls it a top pick amid $60–65 billion 2025 capex. I blend this with macro: AI optimism counters tariff drags, but I cap exposure at 25 % portfolio, rotating from AAPL (implied +4 % move) where services lag at 5 % growth. Hedge funds echo: 36 Buys on NVDA average $177, implying 24 % upside, per TipRanks Oct updates.

GOOGL just hit a new all-time high, narrowing the market cap gap to Apple and Microsoft to roughly $700 billion. Stifel raised its PT to $292, citing better antitrust sentiment and solid estimates, while modeling $5.52 FCF/share growing 10 % CAGR to a potential $520/share by 2030. This aligns with my longer-term valuation path; the Cloud runway is underpriced. I secured profits on 20 % of my META calls yesterday but hold my core longs; this isn’t rotation, it’s structural ownership of scalable earnings power.

🚀 Retail Radar and Momentum Pulse

Retail momentum is back on my screen. INTC popped on chip-tariff hopes, NEUP +53.6 % on merger buzz, DECK +12 % post-earnings, NEGG doubled, DJT +8 %, F +10.9 % on EV credits, LUMN +15 % debt restructure, GNTA +106.8 %, NEM +7 % gold bid, IBM +5 % AI contracts. Volume was 2× average per Yahoo Finance. When Ford and Newmont rally together, institutional flows follow within a week. I used F 12 calls for a 30 % gain into 13.50 and trimmed on volume fade. This isn’t chasing memes; it’s front-running rotation signals.

🔎 Tactical Bias and Execution Plan

I’m 40 % net long into the Fed meeting with layered straddles on SOFI and ROKU targeting US$1 200 in credits. If Fed anchors sentiment and VIX drops below 16, I’ll scale 20 % more into QQQ above 520. If VIX > 22 or DXY > 98, I fade risk back to neutral. No leveraged bets; I trade data, not hope. Patience protects precision.

🎯 Forward Watchlist and Conviction

SPX 6 700 is my pivot resistance; a break post-Fed targets 6 850 by 15 Nov on 12 % EPS growth. NVDA US$190 on Azure sympathy; GOOGL US$280 if Cloud beats. BTC could test US$110 k if liquidity flows through. Downside alerts: VIX > 22 or DXY > 98 signal flush to SPX 6 300. This map isn’t vague; it’s how I outpace the herd.

📘 Patience Drives Precision

This late-October vortex isn’t breakdown; it’s recalibration. Policy easing meets earnings fire and tariff fog, forging sharper entries into November. I expect a 2–3 % drawdown into the Fed then a risk-on snapback as US$1.3 trillion in global liquidity rotates. I’ve owned each trade, from NVDA profits to CPI hedges, and my focus is clear: data over noise, precision over prediction. As November opens, I’ll scale into institutional momentum and ride the rebound built on discipline and edge.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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