To The Moon

I’ve been holding TLT and TLH for quite a while now — long enough to remember what it feels like to stare at red numbers for months on end. For the longest time, my account looked like a sea of unrealised losses, each day reminding me of how unforgiving markets can be when interest rates are high. Still, I didn’t sell. Not because I enjoyed the pain, but because I believed in the bigger picture.

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Bonds, after all, have their own rhythm — slow, deliberate, sometimes frustratingly out of sync with everything else. When yields climb, bond prices fall. That’s the rule. And for quite a long time, I watched yields rise while my TLT and TLH positions sank into unrealised losses. It was tempting, during those months and years, to cut losses, to move on, to convince myself that maybe this “bond trade” just wasn’t worth it anymore.

But patience, as I’ve learned, is not just about waiting. It’s about understanding why I’m waiting. I held on because I believed interest rates wouldn’t stay elevated forever. Inflation, economies, central banks — they all move in cycles. And cycles, by nature, eventually turn.

Recently, my patience was rewarded. Those deep red numbers have quietly turned green. What once felt like a losing battle now feels like vindication. The unrealised losses that had weighed on me for so long have become unrealised gains. It’s a small victory, but a meaningful one.

Still, I’m not selling. Not yet. Because I don’t think the story has finished playing out. If or rather, when interest rates fall more, long-duration Treasury ETFs like TLT and TLH could see even greater upside. I see this not as a lucky rebound, but as the early stages of a shift I’ve been waiting for.

Investing often tests more than just my analytical skills; it tests my temperament. The ability to endure discomfort, to resist the noise, and to keep faith in my thesis — that’s the true edge. Holding TLT and TLH through their darkest days taught me that patience isn’t passive. It’s an active choice, renewed every day I decide not to sell.

So I continue to hold, quietly, as the market hums with speculation and headlines swing between optimism and panic. I’ve learned that conviction takes time to bear fruit and sometimes, the best trade is simply to wait.