To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ $BlackRock(BLK)$ 

I’ve been glued to my screens tracking Rocket Lab’s ascent through 2025, and right now at $70.74 (22Oct25) I see a company that’s not just launching rockets but engineering the backbone of a trillion-dollar orbital economy. I’m holding a core position here, layering in dips as the chart builds that classic Darvassian momentum box above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $64.88; it’s screaming continuation if we hold the mid-60s. Let me break this down layer by layer, from the tape to the tape’s deeper currents, so you can see the edges I’m playing.

📈 Charting the Ascent: Technical Layers I Track Daily

I’m dissecting the weekly chart like it’s a live mission feed, and it’s firing on all cylinders. Price has punched through that 1.618 Fibonacci extension with conviction and is now coiling into a fresh Darvassian container. I’ve seen this pattern ignite twice before; both times it triggered 40–60 percent runs after volume contraction. Today’s close sits right in the upper band, with tightening Bollinger Bands hinting at the next squeeze.

RSI’s steady at 55.28, healthy but not overheated, and MACD’s histogram bars are stacking bullish, crossing zero with legs. EMAs are textbook bull-stack: 5 > 10 > 20 > 200 across daily and weekly charts. Support layers sit at $64.98 (anchored VWAP), $60.32 (prior swing), $49.29 (50-day), and $40.32 (200-day). I’m ready to add on any pullback to $64–65, where smart money previously stepped in.

Volume remains my tell: recent sessions clock 25.84 million shares, up 15 percent from average, with strong buy-side aggression. The options tape is heating up too; 1,000 contracts at the $75 strike (Nov 21 expiry), 15× open interest. Put/call ratio at 0.72 and IV climbing to 62 percent signals traders are betting on a 10 percent move by earnings on 18 Nov 25.

Pattern-wise, it’s a textbook ascending triangle that resolves higher; break $72 cleanly, and I’m scaling into the measured move toward $85, then $129 (long-term Fib extension).

🔥 Beneath the Surface: Short Pressures and Squeeze Signals

I’m not one for hopium, but shorts are giving me a gift. As of 20 Oct 25, short interest sits at 12.19 million shares (12.2 percent float), up from 8.0 percent in September, even as price doubled from $40.61.

Open short interest: 57.76 million (30 Sep 25)

Days to cover: 2.36

Short ratio: 8.59 percent

Borrow fee: 4.2 percent and rising

Combined NASDAQ/NYSE short volume hit 2.22 million last session, but with 85 percent long-side flow, shorts are being absorbed. It’s now one of the 31 top short-squeeze setups, rubbing shoulders with $HIMS (18 percent) and $APLD (14 percent), all riding the AI-space tailwinds.

This setup’s pure asymmetric risk; if we see a 50 percent cover post-launch, a 20–30 percent squeeze becomes mechanical. I’m long shares, hedged with light Nov $70 puts, and tracking Nov $75 calls (689 contracts vs 438 puts) for confirmation flow.

Beyond RKLB, I’m tracking a 31-stock shortlist of high-momentum setups where shorts are cornered and volume’s rotating fast. Standouts include $HIMS (35 % float shorted), $APLD (30.7 %), $SEI (25.1 %), $LEU (25 %), and $TEM (24.4 %), each showing multi-hundred-percent rebounds in short interest off their lows. RKLB’s 12.2 % short float may look modest in comparison, but its velocity and volume intensity make it one of the cleanest asymmetric squeezes in the entire group.

🛰️ Macro Currents: Space as the New Industrial Engine

I’m framing $RKLB inside the broader wave. The global space economy is projected to hit $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $613 billion in 2024 (WEF). The Fed’s 25 bps cuts by December are fuelling risk assets, while defence budgets are underwriting growth:

US Space Force FY 25: $30 billion, including $4.3 billion for proliferated LEO architectures like PWSA, where Rocket Lab is delivering 18 Tranche 2 satellites.

China’s Thousands Sails: 648 satellites by year-end.

Europe’s ESA: €45 million boost to small-launch rivals.

Rocket Lab stands out as a US-ITAR-compliant workhorse, securing the edge in global orbital supply.

Macro tailwinds continue: lower rates reduce Neutron’s $200 million capex, inflation’s cooled to 2.4 percent, stabilising composite and titanium costs. Geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Taiwan keeps demand high for SAR imaging, where Synspective’s StriX constellation (Rocket Lab’s partner) is thriving.

Fundamentally, Q2 2025 revenue was $144.5 million (+36 percent YoY). GAAP gross margin came in at 32.1 percent, non-GAAP at 39.4 percent, both up sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $21.3 million. Rocket Lab is trading around 66× sales with a projected 34 percent CAGR through 2030 that supports the valuation premium.

🚀 Catalyst Ignition: Launches, Contracts, and the Amazon Whisper

Catalysts are stacked and timed.

“Owl New World” (Synspective) launched 14 Oct 25 from Mahia, NZ, Rocket Lab’s 73rd Electron and 15th mission of the year, the first of a $500 million, 21-mission deal running through decade-end.

“The Nation God Navigates” (iQPS) launches 05 Nov 25 UTC, the 74th Electron and 16th in 2025, marking another cadence record.

Then there’s the Amazon Kuiper whisper. Rocket Lab’s updated 12.0 Nms reaction-wheel data sheet (Sep 25) shows flight heritage exploding from 8 units (Oct 23) to 416 plus units, roughly 104 satellites — the same count Kuiper has deployed. Quiet confirmation? Almost certainly.

Q3 2025 guidance (from SEC filing 7 Aug 25):

Revenue $145–155 million, GAAP gross margin 35–37 percent, non-GAAP gross margin 39–41 percent, adjusted EBITDA loss $21–23 million, operating expenses $104–109 million. If Neutron’s Q2 2026 debut is hinted at during earnings, that sets up a multi-leg revaluation catalyst.

Strategically, Rocket Lab’s acquisitions — $275 million for Geost (missile-warning tech) and $75 million for Mynaric (laser comms) — are building a vertically integrated defence-to-space ecosystem. Subsystems now represent around 40 percent of backlog, flipping launch from service to manufacturing flywheel.

🏦 Smart Money’s Bet: Hedge Funds and Analyst Calls

Institutional ownership surged to 60.3 percent (Jun 25) from 55.7 percent. Vanguard leads with 8.6 percent (42 million shares), BlackRock and Capital World aren’t far behind. 493 funds increased positions last quarter; ARK Invest trimmed slightly but still holds 15 million shares. CEO Peter Beck’s September sale (2.5 million shares, $140 million) was routine profit-taking; insider inflows still dominate.

Analyst momentum’s catching up:

Baird (17 Oct 25): Outperform, PT $83, projecting 34 percent CAGR on Neutron ramp.

Morgan Stanley (13 Oct 25): Raised to $68 from $20, Equal-Weight.

KeyBanc (17 Oct 25): Buy, noting $1 billion backlog as inflection point.

Consensus sits at $56.42 average PT, high $83, low $45; I’m leaning Baird’s trajectory.

🧭 Forward Horizons: Mapping the Next Thrust

I’m not guessing; I’m mapping probabilities.

Short-term: liquidity test to $64–65 by 28 Oct 25, then push to $80–85 post-launch.

Earnings (18 Nov 25): beat $150 million, and we gap to $90.

Q1 2026: Neutron hot-fire test; success pushes $100, failure holds $55 support.

Long-term: $129 (Fib extension) mid-2026 if cadence reaches 30 launches per year.

Plays:

Long shares at $70.74, add on dips.

Nov $75 calls for 2:1 risk/reward on vol spike.

Hedge with $65 puts for downside flush.

Track RSI <70 and volume >30 million for re-entry cues.

💫 Locking in the Trajectory: Why I’m Doubling Down

I’ve traded through booms and busts, but $RKLB’s fusion of precision engineering and orbital scale feels like catching the internet in 1995. They’re not selling tickets; they’re building factories that mass-produce constellations, turning launches into annuity streams.

With Neutron’s imminent launch, a $1 billion backlog, expanding government contracts, and confirmed ties to Amazon Kuiper, I’m convinced $RKLB hits escape velocity to $100 by year-end, compounding toward a $50 billion valuation by 2030.

I’m holding core, scaling on weakness, and sleeping easy knowing the fundamentals orbit truth. If you’re building positions, align with the levels; the stars are aligning, mate!

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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